Reads as: riskier than 72.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
STERN SAMUEL
14 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.10
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.20
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.90
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.17
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
137.8
3.10
0.20
0.81
2.08
2.90
0.0%
2025Q3
92
135.8
3.06
0.21
0.79
2.05
2.94
0.0%
2025Q2
91
131.6
3.17
0.22
0.81
2.14
3.01
0.0%
2025Q1
90
138.0
3.07
0.27
0.77
2.04
2.89
0.0%
2024Q4
92
136.5
3.14
0.35
0.70
2.09
3.03
0.0%
2024Q3
92
132.8
3.11
0.23
0.78
2.10
2.95
0.0%
2024Q2
91
135.0
3.05
0.27
0.78
2.00
2.88
0.0%
2024Q1
91
136.0
2.94
0.20
0.84
1.90
2.80
6.6%
2023Q4
92
129.3
3.13
0.15
0.93
2.06
3.00
14.3%
2023Q3
92
131.7
2.77
0.13
0.83
1.82
2.71
19.4%
2023Q2
91
132.3
2.62
0.11
0.88
1.64
2.42
21.4%
2023Q1
90
128.5
2.79
0.11
0.93
1.75
2.60
28.7%
2022Q4
92
127.6
2.60
0.21
0.78
1.62
2.42
21.9%
2022Q3
92
130.1
2.69
0.25
0.73
1.71
2.56
25.3%
2022Q2
91
120.5
2.89
0.24
0.83
1.83
2.74
22.8%
2022Q1
90
110.7
3.10
0.28
0.88
1.94
2.92
20.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
23
D × 19E × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-09-30
2024-07-29
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-09-30
2023-09-19
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-10-30
2023-09-19
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-10-30
2023-09-19
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-10-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0646
Notify the appropriate authorities when residents with MD or ID services has a significant change in condition.
D
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-11-03
2022-09-01
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2022-11-03
2019-03-13
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2019-04-29
2019-03-13
Health
F0711
Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit.
E
2019-04-29
2019-03-13
Health
F0712
Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits.
E
2019-04-29
2019-03-13
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2019-04-29
2019-03-13
Health
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2019-04-29
2019-03-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-04-29
2019-03-13
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
D
2019-04-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LAKELAND OPERATOR HOLDCO, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-09-29
current
pecos_ownership
GREEN, DOV
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-09-29
current
pecos_ownership
LAKELAND REALTY SNF LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LAKELAND REALTY SNF LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MIARA, ABRAHAM
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-09-29
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, SAMUEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-09-29
current
pecos_ownership
OMNI II LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-09-28
hcris_a_8_1
OMNI II LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OMNI II LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ABRAHAM MIARA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOV GREEN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAKELAND REALTY SNF LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-09-29
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SAMUEL STERN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,278,655
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2023-12-31
$1,344,957
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2022-12-31
$336,071
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2022-09-28
$1,418,282
$1,418,282
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$1,870,534
$1,315,745
—
$455,596
—
5
propco
2020-12-31
$1,926,544
$959,754
—
$567,600
—
5
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34031
acs median gross
0
$1,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
0
$1,778
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
1
$1,362
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
1
$2,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
2
$1,663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
2
$2,324
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
3
$1,869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
4
$2,191
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
fmr
4
$3,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34031
acs median gross
5
$2,154
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
acs median gross
$1,621
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34031
acs recent mover gross
$1,888
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07420
acs median gross
1
$1,393
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07420
acs median gross
2
$1,837
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07420
acs median gross
3
$1,623
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07420
acs median gross
$1,593
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07420
payment standard 110
0
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 90
0
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
safmr
0
$1,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 110
1
$2,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 90
1
$1,908
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
safmr
1
$2,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 110
2
$2,673
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 90
2
$2,187
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
safmr
2
$2,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 110
3
$3,256
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 90
3
$2,664
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
safmr
3
$2,960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 110
4
$4,158
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
payment standard 90
4
$3,402
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07420
safmr
4
$3,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.