Composite
47.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 65.9 | 58.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.21 | in index |
| financial risk | 56.4 | 49.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.02 | in index |
| staffing risk | 55.9 | 55.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 10.75 | in index |
| billing conduct | 25.5 | 29.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 5.88 | in index |
| chow risk | 22.7 | 23.6 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.62 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 29.3 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.8 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 22.5 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 49.8 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 58.9 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 55.9 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 87.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.6 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 56.4 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 52.8 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 58.7 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 58.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 55.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 55.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.93 | -0.68 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.93 | -0.78 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.19 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.06 | 3.25 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.25 | 3.51 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 102.7 | 3.19 | 0.30 | 0.82 | 2.08 | 3.06 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 99.7 | 3.09 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 1.96 | 3.01 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 101.6 | 3.21 | 0.36 | 0.73 | 2.12 | 3.11 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 102.3 | 3.24 | 0.33 | 0.76 | 2.15 | 3.12 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 104.2 | 3.20 | 0.36 | 0.74 | 2.10 | 3.09 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 99.5 | 3.35 | 0.34 | 0.79 | 2.22 | 3.21 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 98.3 | 3.24 | 0.28 | 0.84 | 2.12 | 3.18 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 96.9 | 3.33 | 0.32 | 0.86 | 2.14 | 3.18 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 94.3 | 3.32 | 0.36 | 0.85 | 2.12 | 3.17 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 93.9 | 3.06 | 0.32 | 0.88 | 1.86 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 91.1 | 2.99 | 0.30 | 0.97 | 1.73 | 2.85 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 89.1 | 2.98 | 0.31 | 0.96 | 1.71 | 2.79 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 91.5 | 2.65 | 0.32 | 0.94 | 1.39 | 2.48 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 90.3 | 2.62 | 0.23 | 1.01 | 1.38 | 2.45 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 90.6 | 2.76 | 0.29 | 1.01 | 1.46 | 2.57 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 89.3 | 2.88 | 0.27 | 0.92 | 1.69 | 2.60 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-18 | Fine | $25,058 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-01-22 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-02-12 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-02-12 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | B | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | E | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | E | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-06-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-08-13 |
| 2023-11-30 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2024-01-11 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-10-20 |
| 2023-10-04 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-10-20 |
| 2023-09-18 | Health · complaint | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | D | 2023-10-30 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0710 | Obtain a doctor's order to admit a resident and ensure the resident is under a doctor's care. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | E | 2022-03-15 |
| 2022-02-01 | Health | F0886 | Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff. | D | 2022-03-15 |
| 2019-08-15 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2019-09-23 |
| 2019-08-15 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2019-09-23 |
| 2019-08-15 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2019-09-23 |
| 2019-08-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2019-09-23 |
| 2019-08-15 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2019-09-23 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOLEY, BRIAN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| SINGH, DEVIKA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-09-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VESS, RYAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2013-03-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WATERBURY REALTY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| WATERBURY REALTY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BRIAN FOLEY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WATERBURY REALTY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| DEVIKA SINGH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2018-09-10 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RYAN VESS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2013-03-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WATERBURY REALTY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| WATERBURY REALTY | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 128 | IM OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT LITCHFIELD WOODS | — | — | — | 160 | LITCHFIELD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT VALERIE MANOR | — | — | — | 151 | VALERIE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | SHADY KNOLL CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 128 | SHADY KNOLL ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | MAEFAIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 134 | MAEFAIR ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | GLASTONBURY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 105 | GLASTONBURY ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | MANSFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 98 | MANSFIELD ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | EVERGREEN CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | EVERGREEN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | MONTOWESE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | MONTOWESE ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | SHARON CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 88 | SHARON ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | BEACON BROOK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 126 | BEACON BROOK ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | STONE BRIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 154 | NEWTOWN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 09140 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,013 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09140 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,067 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09140 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,395 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09140 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,599 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09140 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,974 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09140 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,753 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09140 | acs median gross | $1,330 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 09140 | acs recent mover gross | $1,463 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06795 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,410 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06795 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,174 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06795 | acs median gross | $1,218 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,320 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,080 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | safmr | 0 | $1,200 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,529 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,251 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | safmr | 1 | $1,390 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,892 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,548 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | safmr | 2 | $1,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,343 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,917 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | safmr | 3 | $2,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,761 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,259 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06795 | safmr | 4 | $2,510 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |