Composite
63.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 87.9 | 85.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.28 | in index |
| billing conduct | 79.9 | 52.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.44 | in index |
| staffing risk | 65.0 | 65.0 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 12.50 | in index |
| chow risk | 16.3 | 15.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 1.88 | in index |
| financial risk | 1.1 | 6.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.25 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 50% fined | ALTER TZVI | 22 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 44% fined | NC EAST HOLDING LLC | 9 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 52.9 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 6.8 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 6.5 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 85.2 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 65.0 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 82.2 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 25.2 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 10.7 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 85.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 85.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 65.0 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 65.0 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 3.57 | -1.50 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.23 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.42 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 4.23 | -1.26 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 3.57 | -0.24 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NC median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.06 | 3.08 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.91 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.12 | 3.14 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 117.7 | 3.06 | 0.31 | 0.95 | 1.80 | 2.91 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 123.9 | 3.17 | 0.28 | 1.06 | 1.83 | 3.01 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 122.7 | 3.12 | 0.27 | 1.08 | 1.77 | 2.85 | 2.2% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 130.1 | 3.22 | 0.31 | 1.10 | 1.81 | 3.02 | 7.9% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 127.4 | 3.27 | 0.33 | 1.09 | 1.85 | 3.07 | 28.8% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 123.7 | 3.18 | 0.41 | 0.99 | 1.79 | 3.10 | 30.9% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 119.0 | 3.26 | 0.43 | 1.03 | 1.80 | 3.13 | 27.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 132.6 | 3.32 | 0.36 | 1.03 | 1.93 | 3.18 | 21.6% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 128.4 | 3.33 | 0.36 | 1.09 | 1.88 | 3.21 | 18.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 131.2 | 3.36 | 0.44 | 1.01 | 1.92 | 3.12 | 18.5% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 131.3 | 3.38 | 0.42 | 0.97 | 1.99 | 3.17 | 47.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 132.0 | 3.31 | 0.38 | 0.95 | 1.98 | 3.01 | 50.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 109.9 | 2.93 | 0.47 | 0.84 | 1.62 | 2.64 | 26.9% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 106.6 | 3.05 | 0.56 | 0.82 | 1.68 | 2.73 | 23.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 102.1 | 3.06 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 1.75 | 2.65 | 1.7% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 104.4 | 3.02 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 1.81 | 2.55 | 0.6% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | Fine | $48,523 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-04-05 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-10 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2025-05-06 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-05-06 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-05-06 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-05-06 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-05-06 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2025-05-06 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-05-06 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2025-05-06 |
| 2024-11-19 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-11-29 |
| 2024-05-24 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2024-06-07 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health · complaint | F0660 | Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health · complaint | F0661 | Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | J | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health · complaint | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | J | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health · complaint | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-04-05 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2023-11-20 | Health · complaint | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2023-12-18 |
| 2023-11-20 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | E | 2023-12-18 |
| 2023-08-18 | Health · complaint | F0660 | Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs. | D | 2023-09-13 |
| 2023-01-10 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2023-01-30 |
| 2023-01-10 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | H | 2023-01-30 |
| 2023-01-10 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | B | 2023-02-10 |
| 2023-01-10 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2023-01-30 |
| 2023-01-10 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-01-30 |
| 2023-01-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-01-30 |
| 2023-01-10 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | D | 2023-01-30 |
| 2023-01-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | J | 2023-01-30 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC EAST HOLDING LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ALTER, TZVI | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 80% | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOSEPH, DONALD | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TZVI ALTER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 80% | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| HC FAMILY TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DONALD JOSEPH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-01 | — | SOUTHPOINT OPCO LLC | SSC DURHAM OPERATING COMPANY LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat | — | — | — | 50 | WILKINSON BLVD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Warsaw Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | — | — | — | 100 | WARSAW OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Walnut Cove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 511 WINDMILL STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Wilora Lake Healthcare | — | — | — | 70 | 6001 WILORA LAKE ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Clay County Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 86 VALLEY HIDEAWAY DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Emerald Ridge Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 25 REYNOLDS MOUNTAIN BOULEVARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Willowbrook Rehabilitation and Care | — | — | — | 76 | 333 EAST LEE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Westwood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 68 | 625 ASHLAND STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Hibriten Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 2030 HARPER AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Forrest Oakes Healthcare | — | — | — | 60 | 620 HEATHWOOD DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Cardinal Healthcare and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 63 | 931 NORTH ASPEN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Valley View Care and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 76 | 551 KENT STREET OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 37063 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,386 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37063 | fmr | 0 | $1,417 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37063 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,335 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37063 | fmr | 1 | $1,507 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37063 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,514 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37063 | fmr | 2 | $1,711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37063 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,778 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37063 | fmr | 3 | $2,117 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37063 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,004 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37063 | fmr | 4 | $2,527 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37063 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,639 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37063 | acs median gross | $1,508 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 37063 | acs recent mover gross | $1,709 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 27713 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,581 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27713 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,362 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27713 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,573 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27713 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,822 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27713 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,119 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 27713 | acs median gross | $1,540 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 27713 | acs recent mover gross | $1,698 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,727 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | safmr | 0 | $1,570 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,503 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | safmr | 1 | $1,670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | safmr | 2 | $1,900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,585 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,115 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | safmr | 3 | $2,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,036 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,484 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 27713 | safmr | 4 | $2,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |