148 HOOD STREET, OREGON CITY, OR 97045 · CCN 385245 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
30.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
53
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 30.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
TRUIST BANK
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MORRIS CHRISTOPHER
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
62 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
MORRIS CHRISTOPHER
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.14
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.21
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.96
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.21
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
50.2
4.14
0.21
0.83
3.10
3.96
32.5%
2025Q3
92
50.0
4.03
0.20
0.93
2.91
3.80
23.1%
2025Q2
91
50.2
4.24
0.15
0.93
3.15
3.99
34.0%
2025Q1
90
49.3
4.14
0.09
1.31
2.73
3.88
32.9%
2024Q4
92
42.5
4.33
0.14
1.33
2.85
3.99
42.1%
2024Q3
92
33.6
3.96
0.13
1.19
2.64
3.70
19.9%
2024Q2
91
33.8
3.85
0.17
1.07
2.61
3.89
18.8%
2024Q1
91
33.8
3.80
0.17
0.87
2.76
3.73
26.6%
2023Q4
92
32.8
3.55
0.16
0.97
2.42
3.44
12.6%
2023Q3
92
32.7
3.71
0.34
0.99
2.37
3.70
8.7%
2023Q2
91
32.5
3.73
0.16
1.18
2.40
3.68
3.2%
2023Q1
90
31.8
3.75
0.22
1.16
2.37
3.71
1.8%
2022Q4
92
32.2
3.60
0.45
0.84
2.31
3.54
5.8%
2022Q3
92
28.6
3.48
0.24
1.08
2.16
3.16
8.0%
2022Q2
91
31.6
3.62
0.29
0.97
2.36
3.46
4.3%
2022Q1
90
33.4
3.41
0.26
0.90
2.25
3.16
4.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
B
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
E
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-25
2025-11-19
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-12-12
2025-04-18
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-05-19
2025-04-18
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-05-19
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-11
Health · complaint
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
F
2024-11-15
2023-07-14
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-14
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-14
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2023-08-15
2023-07-14
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-14
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-14
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2023-08-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
OREGON CITY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OREGON CITY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2023-09-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
APT, FREDERICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
BAILEY, SPENCER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
BAILEY, SPENCER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, CHRISTOPHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
OREGON CITY 148 REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMI, ZAHLIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-19
current
pecos_ownership
TRUIST BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OREGON CITY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OREGON CITY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OREGON CITY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
42%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER MORRIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER MORRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER BAILEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER BAILEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZAHLIA RAMI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$150,658
—
$150,658
—
—
1
—
2024-08-31
$358,604
—
$285,895
$72,709
—
9
propco
2023-12-31
$676,157
—
$490,105
$186,052
—
9
propco
2022-12-31
$446,513
—
$368,637
$77,876
—
9
propco
2021-12-31
$929,326
$258,468
$266,390
$161,924
$131,362
9
propco
2020-12-31
$1,028,247
$301,668
$263,835
$259,946
$58,253
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41005
acs median gross
0
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
1
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
1
$1,677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
2
$1,736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
2
$1,922
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
3
$2,121
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
3
$2,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
4
$2,704
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
4
$3,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
5
$2,558
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
acs median gross
$1,758
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
acs recent mover gross
$1,923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97045
acs median gross
0
$871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97045
acs median gross
1
$1,392
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97045
acs median gross
2
$1,659
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97045
acs median gross
3
$2,146
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97045
acs median gross
4
$2,616
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97045
acs median gross
5
$2,294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97045
acs median gross
$1,704
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97045
acs recent mover gross
$1,976
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97045
payment standard 110
0
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 90
0
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
safmr
0
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 110
1
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 90
1
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
safmr
1
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 110
2
$2,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 90
2
$1,746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
safmr
2
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 110
3
$2,904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 90
3
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
safmr
3
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 110
4
$3,454
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
payment standard 90
4
$2,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97045
safmr
4
$3,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.