Reads as: riskier than 77.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
6.13
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.20
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.85
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
6.24
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
13.4
6.13
1.20
1.11
3.82
5.85
0.0%
2025Q2
91
17.1
5.51
0.84
0.97
3.71
5.13
0.0%
2025Q1
90
14.6
6.25
0.91
1.25
4.09
5.98
0.0%
2024Q4
92
13.7
6.61
0.83
1.35
4.43
6.40
0.0%
2024Q3
92
15.2
6.41
0.98
1.30
4.13
5.84
0.0%
2024Q2
91
16.3
5.17
0.93
1.09
3.15
4.91
0.0%
2024Q1
91
17.1
4.51
0.86
0.59
3.06
4.43
0.0%
2023Q4
92
18.2
4.78
1.14
0.32
3.32
4.38
6.1%
2023Q3
92
16.9
5.51
0.96
0.70
3.85
5.19
0.0%
2023Q2
91
15.6
5.05
1.33
0.38
3.34
4.80
0.0%
2023Q1
90
16.8
4.39
1.10
0.47
2.83
4.13
0.0%
2022Q4
92
16.5
4.91
1.37
0.42
3.12
4.87
0.0%
2022Q3
92
15.5
5.38
1.28
0.49
3.61
5.29
0.0%
2022Q2
91
19.6
3.97
0.89
0.50
2.59
3.73
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2026-05-15
2023-12-10
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
J
2024-01-28
2023-12-10
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-01-28
2023-12-10
Health · complaint
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
D
2024-01-28
2023-12-10
Health · complaint
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2024-01-28
2023-10-19
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-11-06
2023-10-19
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-11-06
2023-10-19
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2023-11-06
2023-10-19
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-11-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
28
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BROWNING, ALEXIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUTTICE, DENNIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRISMON, COREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-05-04
current
pecos_ownership
ESTES, MONICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-05
current
pecos_ownership
GILLESPIE, CHRISTY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-08-07
current
pecos_ownership
HINES, DEBRA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
KELLER, KARLENE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONIHAN, KERRISUE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-07-03
current
pecos_ownership
NALIVKA, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
PHILLIPS, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLF, JESSICA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-21
current
pecos_ownership
SKERJANEC, LUKAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-09-04
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, BRANDON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-05
current
pecos_ownership
STEWART - KELSO, KRYSTAL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALEXIS BROWNING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTY GILLESPIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-08-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COREY CRISMON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRA HINES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-04-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENNIS BUTTICE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA ROLLF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN NALIVKA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN PHILLIPS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLENE KELLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRISUE MONIHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-07-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRYSTAL STEWART - KELSO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LUKAS SKERJANEC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-09-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MONICA ESTES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41045
acs median gross
0
$600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41045
fmr
0
$772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41045
acs median gross
1
$600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41045
fmr
1
$942
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41045
acs median gross
2
$790
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41045
fmr
2
$1,081
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41045
acs median gross
3
$1,049
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41045
fmr
3
$1,503
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41045
acs median gross
4
$1,161
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41045
fmr
4
$1,813
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41045
acs median gross
5
$832
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41045
acs median gross
$821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41045
acs recent mover gross
$813
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97918
acs median gross
0
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97918
acs median gross
2
$766
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97918
acs median gross
3
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97918
acs median gross
4
$1,563
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97918
acs median gross
$830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97918
acs recent mover gross
$696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97918
payment standard 110
0
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 90
0
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
safmr
0
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 110
1
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 90
1
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
safmr
1
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 110
2
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 90
2
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
safmr
2
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 110
3
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 90
3
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
safmr
3
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 110
4
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
payment standard 90
4
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97918
safmr
4
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.