Composite
66.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 90.6 | 60.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.91 | in index |
| financial risk | 48.0 | 44.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.08 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 46.1 | 35.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.64 | in index |
| staffing risk | 53.5 | 53.5 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 10.29 | in index |
| chow risk | 15.5 | 15.2 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 1.79 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 16 chains | BAKER TILLY ADVISORY GROUP LP | 77 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 60.4 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 5.4 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 44.3 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 35.0 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 53.5 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 63.0 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 43.0 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 63.7 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 45.1 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 34.9 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 34.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 53.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 53.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.71 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 14.00 | +0.17 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | -0.11 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 14.00 | -1.17 | |
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.82 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.59 | -0.30 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WV median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.23 | 3.14 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.02 | 2.97 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.31 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 56.6 | 3.23 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 2.17 | 3.02 | 0.4% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 58.9 | 3.07 | 0.33 | 0.58 | 2.17 | 2.84 | 1.2% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 57.7 | 3.16 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 2.16 | 3.01 | 1.8% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 56.9 | 2.32 | 0.15 | 0.69 | 1.48 | 2.39 | 1.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 54.4 | 3.82 | 0.25 | 0.86 | 2.71 | 3.58 | 0.6% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 56.7 | 3.43 | 0.18 | 0.81 | 2.44 | 3.06 | 1.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 56.6 | 3.54 | 0.24 | 0.83 | 2.47 | 3.07 | 0.7% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 56.5 | 0.39 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1.2% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 56.9 | 3.28 | 0.26 | 0.67 | 2.35 | 3.14 | 0.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 57.2 | 3.35 | 0.24 | 0.66 | 2.45 | 3.34 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 56.4 | 3.16 | 0.24 | 0.75 | 2.17 | 3.21 | 0.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 58.5 | 3.22 | 0.25 | 0.71 | 2.25 | 3.31 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 57.9 | 3.05 | 0.23 | 0.83 | 1.99 | 3.21 | 9.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 55.1 | 3.44 | 0.27 | 0.92 | 2.25 | 3.37 | 13.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 56.4 | 2.98 | 0.37 | 0.72 | 1.89 | 2.84 | 0.6% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 54.7 | 2.59 | 0.03 | 0.99 | 1.57 | 2.53 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2026-05-04 |
| 2026-03-04 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-05-04 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-11-17 |
| 2022-09-14 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | F | 2022-11-17 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKER TILLY ADVISORY GROUP, LP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOX & FOX LIMITED PARTNERSHIP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2009-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOX, JAMES | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2009-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOX, SCOTT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2009-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ORCHARDS REAK ESTATE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ORCHARDS REAK ESTATE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| PATANI, HEMANT | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THE ORCHARD'S REAL ESTATE, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2009-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TINZ, GREGORY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ORCHARDS FAMILY MANAGEMENT, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2009-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GREGORY TINZ | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| HEMANT PATANI | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES FOX | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2009-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ORCHARDS REAK ESTATE | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| SCOTT FOX | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2009-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SCOTT FOX | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2002-08-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-12 | Cortland Acres Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 94 | CORTLAND ACRES SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | MORGANTOWN HEIGHTS OF JOURNEY | — | — | — | 100 | MORGANTOWN HEIGHTS OF JOURNEY, LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | GLASGOW HILLS OF JOURNEY | — | — | — | 112 | GLASGOW HILLS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | RIVERSIDE VALLEY OF JOURNEY | — | — | — | 90 | RIVERSIDE VALLEY OF JOURNEY, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THOMAS HOSPITALS SKILLED NURSING UNIT | — | — | — | 29 | HERBERT J THOMAS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL ASSOCIATION |
| 2024-04-09 | PETERSON REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 150 | WHEELING REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC |
| 2023-11-01 | PINE VIEW CENTER | — | — | — | 56 | 400 MCKINLEY AVENUE OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-09-28 | BLUESTONE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | MAPLES SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-08-25 | TYGART VALLEY HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | BELINGTON SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-07-31 | NEW MARTINSVILLE HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 100 | MARTINSVILLE SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-07-31 | GLENVILLE HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 65 | GLENVILLE SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-07-01 | OHIO VALLEY HEALTH CARE | — | — | — | 66 | OHIO VALLEY HEALTH CORPORATION |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 54029 | fmr | 0 | $752 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 54029 | acs median gross | 1 | $624 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 54029 | fmr | 1 | $757 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 54029 | acs median gross | 2 | $823 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 54029 | fmr | 2 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 54029 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,038 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 54029 | fmr | 3 | $1,285 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 54029 | acs median gross | 4 | $650 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 54029 | fmr | 4 | $1,482 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 54029 | acs median gross | $771 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 54029 | acs recent mover gross | $837 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 26034 | acs median gross | 1 | $541 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 26034 | acs median gross | 2 | $857 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 26034 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,075 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 26034 | acs median gross | $785 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 26034 | acs recent mover gross | $624 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $902 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | safmr | 0 | $820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $913 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | safmr | 1 | $830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,166 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $954 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | safmr | 2 | $1,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | safmr | 3 | $1,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,771 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,449 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 26034 | safmr | 4 | $1,610 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |