4550 CARMAN DRIVE, LAKE OSWEGO, OR 97035 · CCN 385271 · chain AVAMERE GROUP LLC
Composite
40.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
74
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 40.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.66
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.94
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.27
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.81
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
38.3
4.66
0.94
0.98
2.75
4.27
3.9%
2025Q3
92
37.4
4.74
0.88
0.93
2.93
4.37
4.1%
2025Q2
91
36.5
4.36
0.71
0.95
2.69
4.16
5.1%
2025Q1
90
37.8
4.47
0.63
1.12
2.72
4.24
7.1%
2024Q4
92
41.2
4.02
0.37
1.13
2.53
3.82
6.1%
2024Q3
92
34.4
4.66
0.35
1.35
2.96
4.50
7.5%
2024Q2
91
27.0
5.66
0.52
1.88
3.26
5.38
8.5%
2024Q1
91
36.3
5.04
0.88
1.19
2.97
4.59
39.4%
2023Q4
92
29.5
5.19
0.53
1.60
3.06
4.81
30.2%
2023Q3
92
31.3
4.21
0.62
1.44
2.15
3.61
26.7%
2023Q2
91
35.5
4.47
0.37
1.60
2.50
3.97
42.8%
2023Q1
90
33.8
4.73
0.40
1.66
2.67
4.51
30.0%
2022Q4
92
26.7
4.47
0.58
1.52
2.37
3.72
19.0%
2022Q3
92
22.3
4.67
0.82
1.35
2.50
3.94
9.6%
2022Q2
91
19.5
5.89
0.96
1.80
3.13
5.32
3.3%
2022Q1
90
28.5
5.44
0.71
1.72
3.02
4.99
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
22
D × 13E × 7F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-11-21
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-12-25
2025-11-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-12-25
2025-01-23
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-02-17
2025-01-23
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-02-17
2024-08-02
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-09-10
2024-08-02
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2024-09-10
2024-08-02
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-09-10
2024-08-02
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-09-10
2024-08-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-09-10
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-07-17
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-17
2023-07-14
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-08-30
2023-07-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-08-30
2023-07-14
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-08-30
2023-07-14
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-08-30
2023-07-14
Health · complaint
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-10-13
2023-07-14
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2023-10-13
2023-07-14
Health · complaint
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2023-08-30
2023-07-14
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
E
2023-10-13
2023-07-14
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
F
2023-08-20
2023-07-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-08-30
2023-07-14
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2023-08-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
14
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARR, KIRSTEN
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOFSTAD, MARY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-02-13
current
pecos_ownership
MARGOLIS, ERIK
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
SIMPSON, ANDREW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARI CBC LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2011-08-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARI OPERATIONS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2011-08-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVAMERE GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2011-08-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVAMERE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
OTHER
100%
2007-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARL MILLER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2005-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW SIMPSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVAMERE SKILLED ADVISORS LLC
OTHER
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIK MARGOLIS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-04-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIRSTEN CARR
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY KOFSTAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-02-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,378,702
—
$1,221,611
$107,116
$31,670
12
—
2023-12-31
$1,694,671
—
$518,911
$773,417
$402,343
8
—
2022-12-31
$1,242,981
—
$614,173
$501,468
$123,757
8
—
2021-12-31
$1,405,635
—
$735,241
$658,413
$10,800
8
—
2020-12-31
$1,925,517
—
$637,991
$1,119,199
$168,327
8
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41005
acs median gross
0
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
1
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
1
$1,677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
2
$1,736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
2
$1,922
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
3
$2,121
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
3
$2,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
4
$2,704
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
4
$3,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
5
$2,558
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
acs median gross
$1,758
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
acs recent mover gross
$1,923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97035
acs median gross
0
$1,542
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97035
acs median gross
1
$1,777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97035
acs median gross
2
$2,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97035
acs median gross
3
$2,725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97035
acs median gross
4
$3,460
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97035
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97035
acs median gross
$1,979
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97035
acs recent mover gross
$2,382
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97035
payment standard 110
0
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 90
0
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
safmr
0
$1,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 110
1
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 90
1
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
safmr
1
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 110
2
$2,508
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 90
2
$2,052
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
safmr
2
$2,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 110
3
$3,421
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 90
3
$2,799
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
safmr
3
$3,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 110
4
$4,059
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
payment standard 90
4
$3,321
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97035
safmr
4
$3,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.