12045 SE STANLEY AVENUE, MILWAUKIE, OR 97222 · CCN 385270 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
31.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
96
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 31.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
TRUIST BANK
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MORRIS CHRISTOPHER
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
62 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
MORRIS CHRISTOPHER
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.84
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.57
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.94
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
85.6
3.84
0.23
0.92
2.69
3.57
16.4%
2025Q3
92
82.7
4.04
0.17
1.18
2.69
3.81
23.9%
2025Q2
91
84.0
4.30
0.14
1.30
2.86
4.02
23.5%
2025Q1
90
78.9
4.61
0.17
1.50
2.94
4.20
19.4%
2024Q4
92
72.7
4.61
0.29
1.51
2.81
4.13
23.2%
2024Q3
92
67.3
4.84
0.28
1.28
3.28
4.47
20.3%
2024Q2
91
65.9
4.62
0.17
1.32
3.13
4.37
24.8%
2024Q1
91
62.1
4.26
0.24
1.11
2.91
4.20
33.2%
2023Q4
92
59.0
4.30
0.21
1.03
3.06
3.95
28.1%
2023Q3
92
56.7
4.39
0.29
0.96
3.14
4.18
31.6%
2023Q2
91
55.0
4.11
0.24
1.03
2.84
3.93
15.6%
2023Q1
90
53.7
4.08
0.29
0.92
2.87
3.80
13.6%
2022Q4
92
51.6
3.93
0.36
0.86
2.72
3.75
15.3%
2022Q3
92
51.7
3.93
0.41
0.88
2.63
3.74
14.5%
2022Q2
91
52.6
4.37
0.65
1.11
2.61
4.24
10.8%
2022Q1
90
54.8
3.83
0.56
1.17
2.09
3.46
9.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-02-23
2025-09-05
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-10-15
2025-09-05
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-10-15
2025-09-05
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-10-15
2025-09-05
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-10-15
2025-09-05
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2025-10-15
2025-09-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-10-15
2025-08-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-10-15
2025-02-14
Health · complaint
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2025-03-12
2025-02-14
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-12
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-03-03
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-06-25
2024-05-20
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-06-25
2023-03-27
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2023-04-26
2023-03-27
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2023-04-26
2023-03-27
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-04-26
2023-03-27
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-04-26
2023-03-27
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2023-04-26
2023-03-27
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-04-26
2023-03-27
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
D
2023-04-26
2023-03-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-04-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
APT, FREDERICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
CANO, PILO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
CANO, PILO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
KEMPFER, GRETCHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
MILWAUKIE 12045 REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, CHRISTOPHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRUIST BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER MORRIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER MORRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GRETCHEN KEMPFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PILO CANO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PILO CANO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$278,931
—
$278,931
—
—
1
—
2024-08-31
$1,009,743
—
$582,885
$426,858
—
6
—
2023-12-31
$1,411,807
$3,368
$999,230
$409,209
—
6
—
2022-12-31
$987,819
$8,086
$736,112
$243,621
—
6
—
2021-12-31
$2,201,559
$455,964
$555,989
$463,098
$448,673
6
—
2020-12-31
$1,714,940
$455,964
$470,795
$414,160
$119,720
9
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41005
acs median gross
0
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
1
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
1
$1,677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
2
$1,736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
2
$1,922
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
3
$2,121
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
3
$2,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
4
$2,704
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
fmr
4
$3,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41005
acs median gross
5
$2,558
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
acs median gross
$1,758
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41005
acs recent mover gross
$1,923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97222
acs median gross
0
$1,553
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97222
acs median gross
1
$1,533
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97222
acs median gross
2
$1,644
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97222
acs median gross
3
$1,837
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97222
acs median gross
4
$2,382
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97222
acs median gross
5
$1,942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97222
acs median gross
$1,641
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97222
acs recent mover gross
$1,656
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97222
payment standard 110
0
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 90
0
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
safmr
0
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 110
1
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 90
1
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
safmr
1
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 110
2
$2,057
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 90
2
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
safmr
2
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 110
3
$2,805
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 90
3
$2,295
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
safmr
3
$2,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 110
4
$3,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
payment standard 90
4
$2,718
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97222
safmr
4
$3,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.