Composite
94.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 82.6 | 79.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.06 | in index |
| billing conduct | 73.4 | 49.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.94 | in index |
| staffing risk | 66.5 | 66.5 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 12.79 | in index |
| financial risk | 51.8 | 46.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.95 | in index |
| chow risk | 90.5 | 76.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 10.44 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +28.8 vs natl | SANTILLI LAWRENCE | 24 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +26.2 vs natl | MOSIER MICHAEL | 24 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +25.0 vs natl | ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC | 29 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 49.3 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 74.8 | D | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 78.1 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 46.6 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 4.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 79.5 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 66.5 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 78.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 58.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 57.8 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 49.2 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.4 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.4 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 66.5 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 66.5 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.48 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.30 | +0.30 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 4.98 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 3.30 | -0.72 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.61 | -0.60 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 5.00 | +0.50 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.49 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 4.98 | -0.13 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CT median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.04 | 3.46 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.01 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.91 | 3.25 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.09 | 3.51 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 125.3 | 3.04 | 0.01 | 0.99 | 2.04 | 2.91 | 0.2% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 130.3 | 2.94 | 0.01 | 0.94 | 1.99 | 2.76 | 0.2% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 126.2 | 3.07 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 2.06 | 2.91 | 0.2% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 125.6 | 3.11 | 0.02 | 1.01 | 2.08 | 2.91 | 1.7% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 124.0 | 3.08 | 0.06 | 1.02 | 2.00 | 2.95 | 1.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 123.2 | 3.04 | 0.01 | 1.01 | 2.02 | 2.88 | 0.2% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 128.1 | 3.00 | 0.08 | 0.95 | 1.97 | 2.87 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 128.6 | 2.89 | 0.09 | 0.98 | 1.83 | 2.83 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 121.4 | 3.07 | 0.00 | 1.02 | 2.05 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 120.4 | 3.07 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.06 | 2.97 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 126.5 | 3.15 | 0.04 | 0.95 | 2.16 | 2.99 | 1.1% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 130.3 | 3.42 | 0.10 | 0.99 | 2.34 | 3.25 | 5.4% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 132.1 | 3.23 | 0.09 | 0.92 | 2.22 | 3.04 | 3.5% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 126.8 | 3.63 | 0.02 | 1.04 | 2.57 | 3.39 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 124.6 | 3.15 | 0.11 | 0.89 | 2.15 | 2.78 | 0.1% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 131.0 | 2.32 | 0.01 | 0.60 | 1.71 | 2.15 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | Fine | $40,480 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-06-26 | Fine | $16,801 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-06-26 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-02 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-01-02 |
| 2025-12-02 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2026-01-02 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health · complaint | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2025-12-12 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-12-12 |
| 2025-11-18 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-12-12 |
| 2025-05-05 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-06-13 |
| 2024-12-19 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-02-15 |
| 2024-11-14 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-11-29 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-11-29 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-11-29 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | E | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | F | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0946 | Provide training in compliance and ethics. | C | 2024-07-27 |
| 2024-06-26 | Health | F0947 | Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention. | F | 2024-07-27 |
| 2023-08-01 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-08-18 |
| 2021-12-07 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-01-17 |
| 2021-12-07 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2022-01-17 |
| 2021-12-07 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2022-01-17 |
| 2021-12-07 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2022-01-17 |
| 2019-08-01 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2019-08-31 |
| 2019-08-01 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2019-08-31 |
| 2019-08-01 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2019-08-31 |
| 2019-08-01 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2019-08-31 |
| 2019-08-01 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2019-08-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANTILLI, LAWRENCE | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 76% | 2017-09-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 1996-10-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOSIER, MICHAEL | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2007-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROMAN, ERICA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANTILLI, LAWRENCE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 1996-10-18 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LAWRENCE SANTILLI | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 76% | 2017-09-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MICHAEL MOSIER | CORPORATE OFFICER | 4% | 2007-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ERICA ROMAN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 0% | 2016-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LAWRENCE SANTILLI | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 1996-10-18 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | INGRAHAM MANOR REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 128 | IM OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT LITCHFIELD WOODS | — | — | — | 160 | LITCHFIELD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-15 | HAVENCARE AT VALERIE MANOR | — | — | — | 151 | VALERIE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | SHADY KNOLL CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 128 | SHADY KNOLL ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | MAEFAIR CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 134 | MAEFAIR ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-10-10 | GLASTONBURY CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 105 | GLASTONBURY ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | MANSFIELD CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 98 | MANSFIELD ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | EVERGREEN CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | EVERGREEN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | MONTOWESE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 120 | MONTOWESE ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | SHARON CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 88 | SHARON ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | BEACON BROOK CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 126 | BEACON BROOK ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-06-07 | STONE BRIDGE CENTER FOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 154 | NEWTOWN ACQUISITION OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 09120 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,062 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09120 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,232 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09120 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,622 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09120 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,817 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09120 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,231 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09120 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,197 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 09120 | acs median gross | $1,546 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 09120 | acs recent mover gross | $1,817 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06606 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,170 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06606 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,232 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06606 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,525 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06606 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,057 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06606 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,452 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06606 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,110 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 06606 | acs median gross | $1,518 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 06606 | acs recent mover gross | $2,354 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | safmr | 0 | $1,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,112 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,728 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | safmr | 1 | $1,920 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | safmr | 2 | $2,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,058 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,502 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | safmr | 3 | $2,780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 06606 | safmr | 4 | $3,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |