Reads as: riskier than 40.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+34.4 vs natl
SCHULMAN JOSEPH
24 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LANDAU FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
J R FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.18
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.17
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.17
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.18
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
193.7
3.18
0.17
0.87
2.14
3.17
18.7%
2025Q3
92
196.9
3.19
0.18
0.91
2.10
3.25
30.8%
2025Q2
91
191.2
3.27
0.21
0.93
2.13
3.15
27.3%
2025Q1
90
192.2
3.23
0.20
0.95
2.08
3.19
29.1%
2024Q4
92
190.6
3.28
0.21
1.00
2.07
3.22
30.7%
2024Q3
92
183.6
3.25
0.25
0.97
2.03
2.96
19.2%
2024Q2
91
192.0
3.49
0.51
1.02
1.97
3.33
22.7%
2024Q1
91
196.1
3.73
0.24
1.00
2.49
3.74
32.7%
2023Q4
92
203.7
3.09
0.26
0.93
1.90
2.96
17.8%
2023Q3
92
192.7
2.94
0.27
0.92
1.75
2.88
12.4%
2023Q2
91
193.8
3.13
0.25
0.93
1.94
3.10
15.2%
2023Q1
90
191.3
3.46
0.34
0.98
2.13
3.25
19.1%
2022Q4
92
192.8
3.06
0.31
0.87
1.87
2.90
15.6%
2022Q3
92
183.2
3.24
0.28
0.99
1.97
3.05
9.1%
2022Q2
91
172.2
3.38
0.41
0.97
2.00
3.19
8.1%
2022Q1
90
167.6
3.71
0.34
1.07
2.30
3.43
32.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
D × 12E × 3F × 1J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-10
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-03-28
2025-03-10
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-03-21
2025-03-10
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-03-21
2025-03-10
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2025-03-28
2025-03-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-21
2025-01-24
Health · complaint
F0559
Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made.
D
2025-02-07
2025-01-24
Health · complaint
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2025-02-07
2025-01-24
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2025-02-07
2025-01-24
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-02-07
2025-01-24
Health · complaint
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2025-02-07
2023-02-13
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-13
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2023-02-15
2023-02-13
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-13
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-02-17
2023-02-13
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-03-15
2021-05-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2021-05-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
35
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PC NJ2 OPCOS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMS 2021 TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
95%
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AURORA GUARDIAN HOLDCO IV LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
33%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AURORA GUARDIAN HOLDCO IV CO-BORROWER, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
AURORA GUARDIAN HOLDCO IV MEZZ BORROWER, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
AURORA GUARDIAN HOLDCO IV, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
AURORA GUARDIAN IV REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
AURORA GUARDIAN PARTNERS M7 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
COHEN, YOSEF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
GREWAL, BALJINDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
J & R FAMILY INVESTMENTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
J&R M7 FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
L FRIEDMAN 2018 FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
L FRIEDMAN FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
LANDAU FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
LEVOVITZ, YITZCHOK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
M FRIEDMAN 2018 FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
MERCADO, WANDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-19
current
pecos_ownership
PATE, TROY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-11
current
pecos_ownership
PC WTA ACQUISITION LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PC WTA M7 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC (DE)
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULMAN, JOSEPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, SHALOM
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
WESTFIELD CENTER NJ OWNER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
34%
2023-05-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
SHALOM STEIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BALJINDER GREWAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH SCHULMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TROY PATE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WANDA MERCADO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZ LEVOVITZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK LEVOVITZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YOSEF COHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,832,611
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$858,290
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-06-30
$1,003,782
—
$493,314
$489,159
$2,704
5
—
2020-12-31
$4,120,099
—
$986,626
$1,902,789
$1,142,125
9
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34039
acs median gross
0
$1,283
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
0
$1,612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
1
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
1
$1,822
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
2
$1,785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
2
$2,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
3
$2,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
3
$2,761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
4
$2,369
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
4
$3,137
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
5
$2,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
acs median gross
$1,730
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
acs recent mover gross
$2,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07090
acs median gross
0
$2,660
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07090
acs median gross
1
$1,546
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07090
acs median gross
2
$2,615
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07090
acs median gross
3
$2,997
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07090
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07090
acs median gross
$2,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07090
acs recent mover gross
$3,217
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07090
payment standard 110
0
$2,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 90
0
$2,016
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
safmr
0
$2,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 110
1
$2,783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 90
1
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
safmr
1
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 110
2
$3,366
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 90
2
$2,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
safmr
2
$3,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 110
3
$4,213
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 90
3
$3,447
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
safmr
3
$3,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 110
4
$4,785
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
payment standard 90
4
$3,915
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07090
safmr
4
$4,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.