Reads as: riskier than 40.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Federal penalty spike
5.1x prior
this facility
2026-07-29
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.89
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.58
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.45
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.07
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
92.7
3.89
0.58
0.80
2.51
3.45
0.0%
2025Q3
92
93.1
3.99
0.64
0.70
2.65
3.76
0.0%
2025Q2
91
94.6
4.10
0.61
0.69
2.80
3.84
0.0%
2025Q1
90
95.3
4.06
0.54
0.75
2.77
3.63
0.0%
2024Q4
92
94.8
4.09
0.42
0.90
2.77
3.83
0.0%
2024Q3
92
93.4
4.09
0.56
0.81
2.71
3.78
0.0%
2024Q2
91
94.9
4.25
0.59
0.77
2.89
4.00
0.0%
2024Q1
91
93.3
4.27
0.57
0.84
2.86
4.08
0.0%
2023Q4
92
93.2
3.96
0.47
0.93
2.56
3.76
0.0%
2023Q3
92
95.8
3.96
0.47
0.91
2.58
3.55
0.0%
2023Q2
91
95.7
3.42
0.26
1.05
2.11
3.21
0.0%
2023Q1
90
92.1
3.17
0.17
1.11
1.88
3.06
0.0%
2022Q4
92
92.0
2.90
0.20
1.05
1.65
2.84
0.0%
2022Q3
92
88.0
3.26
0.28
0.98
2.00
3.15
0.0%
2022Q2
91
91.1
3.53
0.30
1.01
2.22
3.35
0.0%
2022Q1
90
89.9
3.83
0.25
1.08
2.50
3.61
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2025-10-08
2025-09-18
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
B
2025-10-08
2025-09-18
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-09-26
2025-09-18
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2025-10-08
2025-09-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-10-08
2024-10-10
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-10-30
2024-10-10
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-10-30
2024-10-10
Health
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2024-10-30
2024-08-05
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
K
2023-11-21
2024-08-05
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
K
2023-11-21
2024-08-05
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-08-25
2023-07-13
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-08-15
2023-07-13
Health
F0811
Ensure that residents are assessed for appropriateness for a feeding assistant program, receive services as per their plan of care, and feeding assistants are trained and supervised.
D
2023-08-15
2023-07-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-08-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
GOINS, TED
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2004-11-04
current
pecos_ownership
HERMAN, RICHARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
LH - WILMINGTON PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LH - WILMINGTON PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LSA MANAGEMENT, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
LSA MANAGEMENT, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
LUTHERAN HOME WILMINGTON PROPERTY, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
LUTHERAN HOME WILMINGTON PROPERTY, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
LUTHERAN SERVICES FOR THE AGING, INC.
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2007-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
LUTHERAN SERVICES FOR THE AGING, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-25
current
pecos_ownership
MADDRY, KAREN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2007-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, DOUGLAS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
NICKERSON, KIRBY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
PARRISH, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-25
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, KESHA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-09-08
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, KESHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SUTTON-SURAK, AUDREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-25
current
pecos_ownership
SUTTON-SURAK, AUDREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAREN MADDRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2007-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KESHA SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2003-09-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIRBY NICKERSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUDREY SUTTON-SURAK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUDREY SUTTON-SURAK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS NELSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES PARRISH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KESHA SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LH - WILMINGTON PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
LH - WILMINGTON PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-10-01
ended 2021-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
LH - WILMINGTON PROPERTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
RICHARD HERMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TED GOINS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2004-11-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$3,359,674
—
$588,136
$1,286,726
—
4
propco
2023-09-30
$3,396,019
—
$507,534
$1,300,172
—
15
propco
2022-09-30
$3,266,671
$652
$497,445
$1,159,435
—
15
propco
2021-09-30
$3,349,979
$11,805
$539,227
$1,114,967
—
15
propco
2020-09-30
$3,171,286
$777
$494,922
$1,068,712
—
15
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37129
acs median gross
0
$1,160
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37129
fmr
0
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37129
acs median gross
1
$1,267
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37129
fmr
1
$1,513
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37129
acs median gross
2
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37129
fmr
2
$1,659
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37129
acs median gross
3
$1,692
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37129
fmr
3
$2,178
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37129
acs median gross
4
$1,446
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37129
fmr
4
$2,319
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37129
acs median gross
5
$1,600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37129
acs median gross
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37129
acs recent mover gross
$1,727
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28412
acs median gross
0
$1,381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28412
acs median gross
1
$1,221
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28412
acs median gross
2
$1,438
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28412
acs median gross
3
$1,723
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28412
acs median gross
4
$1,630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28412
acs median gross
$1,411
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28412
acs recent mover gross
$1,623
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28412
payment standard 110
0
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 90
0
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
safmr
0
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 110
1
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 90
1
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
safmr
1
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 110
2
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 90
2
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
safmr
2
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 110
3
$2,508
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 90
3
$2,052
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
safmr
3
$2,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 110
4
$2,673
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
payment standard 90
4
$2,187
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28412
safmr
4
$2,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.