Reads as: riskier than 19.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.14
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.64
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.92
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.23
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
97.6
4.14
0.64
1.14
2.36
3.92
0.0%
2025Q3
92
98.0
4.15
0.62
1.13
2.40
3.87
0.0%
2025Q2
91
102.0
3.90
0.56
1.14
2.20
3.53
0.0%
2025Q1
90
93.1
4.07
0.45
1.16
2.46
3.86
0.0%
2024Q4
92
100.0
3.66
0.44
1.02
2.20
3.33
0.0%
2024Q2
91
100.1
3.69
0.44
1.10
2.15
3.44
0.0%
2024Q1
91
100.0
3.42
0.47
1.01
1.94
3.11
0.0%
2023Q4
92
97.8
3.50
0.53
1.06
1.91
3.19
0.0%
2023Q3
92
92.3
3.50
0.47
1.05
1.98
3.31
0.0%
2023Q2
91
91.0
3.75
0.46
1.10
2.19
3.48
0.0%
2023Q1
90
91.9
4.06
0.48
1.17
2.40
3.75
0.0%
2022Q3
92
90.9
0.20
0.07
0.04
0.09
0.17
100.0%
2022Q2
91
93.0
3.57
0.57
1.08
1.91
3.35
3.8%
2022Q1
90
84.5
0.11
0.05
0.00
0.06
0.08
100.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-09-05
2024-05-17
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
E
2024-05-30
2024-05-17
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-01-16
2024-05-17
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-30
2024-05-17
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-05-30
2024-05-17
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2024-05-30
2023-03-23
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-04-14
2023-03-23
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-04-14
2023-03-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-04-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
56
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
THE NEW TRUSTEES OF THE REX HOSPITAL INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2000-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, KEVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARROWOOD, CATHARINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-24
current
pecos_ownership
BRYANT, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-04
current
pecos_ownership
CAROLL, ELLEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
COLLINS, ANN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
EWEND, MATTHEW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-22
current
pecos_ownership
FISCUS, LYNNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-20
current
pecos_ownership
FITZPATRICK, MELISSA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOBBS, NEDRA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-13
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1991-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOLACZ, NICOLE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-28
current
pecos_ownership
LIEBOWITZ, STEVEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1991-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINDSAY, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-12-26
current
pecos_ownership
MATHEW, BENJAMIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
MATTHEWS, DAYATRA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, CARYN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
MILLS, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OAKES, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAGE, CRISTEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
PEARSON, MARILYN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
SANDNER, JASON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCARBOROUGH, TAMMY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
SETLIFF, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-10-28
current
pecos_ownership
TEMPKE, ROY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-05-03
current
pecos_ownership
UDAYAKUMAR, MEERA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
YORK, HAYLIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
ZINNER, TANYA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2007-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANN COLLINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN MATHEW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARYN MCNEILL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHARINE ARROWOOD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRISTEN PAGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-03-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MILLS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAYATRA MATTHEWS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELLEN CAROLL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HAYLIAN YORK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON SANDNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY LINDSAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-12-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN ANDERSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNNE FISCUS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-04-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARILYN PEARSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW EWEND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEERA UDAYAKUMAR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA FITZPATRICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1991-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SETLIFF
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-10-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NEDRA HOBBS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE KOLACZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT OAKES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROY TEMPKE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-05-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN LIEBOWITZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1991-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAMMY SCARBOROUGH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-03-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TANYA ZINNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM BRYANT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37183
acs median gross
0
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
0
$1,524
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
1
$1,423
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
1
$1,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
2
$1,600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
2
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
3
$1,830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
3
$2,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
4
$2,353
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
4
$2,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
5
$2,651
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
acs median gross
$1,623
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
acs recent mover gross
$1,803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27607
acs median gross
0
$1,392
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27607
acs median gross
1
$1,560
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27607
acs median gross
2
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27607
acs median gross
3
$2,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27607
acs median gross
4
$2,046
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27607
acs median gross
$1,610
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27607
acs recent mover gross
$1,733
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27607
payment standard 110
0
$1,705
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 90
0
$1,395
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
safmr
0
$1,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 110
1
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 90
1
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
safmr
1
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 110
2
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 90
2
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
safmr
2
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 110
3
$2,453
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 90
3
$2,007
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
safmr
3
$2,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 110
4
$3,289
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
payment standard 90
4
$2,691
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27607
safmr
4
$2,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.