Reads as: riskier than 84.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MORGAN DANIEL
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.93
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.70
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.02
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
94.9
2.93
0.25
0.90
1.78
2.70
0.0%
2025Q3
92
94.0
3.02
0.33
0.92
1.76
2.78
0.0%
2025Q2
91
96.9
2.99
0.33
0.92
1.74
2.81
0.0%
2025Q1
90
100.8
2.96
0.28
0.98
1.71
2.79
0.0%
2024Q4
92
99.4
2.99
0.30
0.98
1.72
2.79
0.0%
2024Q3
92
101.3
2.85
0.28
0.91
1.66
2.63
0.0%
2024Q2
91
100.6
2.88
0.28
0.90
1.69
2.73
0.0%
2024Q1
91
95.4
2.73
0.22
0.70
1.81
2.48
0.0%
2023Q4
92
85.3
2.88
0.26
0.70
1.92
2.60
0.0%
2023Q3
92
89.8
2.72
0.18
0.67
1.86
2.42
0.0%
2023Q2
91
94.2
2.40
0.23
0.65
1.52
2.22
0.2%
2023Q1
90
93.0
2.45
0.24
0.65
1.55
2.26
7.6%
2022Q4
92
97.7
2.47
0.23
0.64
1.60
2.24
32.0%
2022Q3
92
100.4
2.46
0.20
0.67
1.59
2.29
50.3%
2022Q2
91
104.1
2.56
0.26
0.74
1.56
2.42
64.4%
2022Q1
90
102.1
2.40
0.26
0.62
1.51
2.24
64.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2026-04-13
2026-03-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-13
2025-02-28
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-28
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-02-08
2025-02-28
Health · complaint
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-28
Health · complaint
F0807
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration.
D
2025-03-20
2024-11-22
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
J
2024-12-18
2024-11-22
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-12-18
2024-11-22
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2024-12-18
2024-11-22
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
J
2024-12-18
2024-11-22
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2024-12-18
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2024-07-20
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-07-24
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-07-24
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-06-20
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-07-24
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
B
2024-07-24
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-07-24
2024-06-27
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
E
2024-07-24
2023-11-08
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2023-12-06
2023-06-29
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2023-07-12
2023-06-29
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
K
2023-07-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARY PARENTCO LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
FC ENCORE CARY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOBACK, TIFFANY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, TEQUILLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NCOP HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
NU C II IRREVOCABLE TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
NU C IRREVOCABLE TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
O BRIEN, PATRICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
O'QUINN, VICKIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SALTER, JON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF CARE CENTERS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF MGR LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
SNF MGR LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
STR HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZENITH HOLDCO II LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZENITH HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DANIEL MORGAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JON SALTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK O BRIEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEQUILLA JONES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIFFANY HOBACK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKIE O'QUINN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$575,755
—
—
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$507,304
—
—
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$528,906
—
—
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$599,440
—
—
—
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$477,205
—
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37183
acs median gross
0
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
0
$1,524
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
1
$1,423
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
1
$1,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
2
$1,600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
2
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
3
$1,830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
3
$2,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
4
$2,353
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
fmr
4
$2,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37183
acs median gross
5
$2,651
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
acs median gross
$1,623
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37183
acs recent mover gross
$1,803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27518
acs median gross
0
$1,343
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27518
acs median gross
1
$1,603
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27518
acs median gross
2
$1,741
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27518
acs median gross
3
$1,953
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27518
acs median gross
$1,681
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27518
acs recent mover gross
$1,792
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27518
payment standard 110
0
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 90
0
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
safmr
0
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 110
1
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 90
1
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
safmr
1
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 110
2
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 90
2
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
safmr
2
$1,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 110
3
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 90
3
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
safmr
3
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 110
4
$3,509
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
payment standard 90
4
$2,871
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27518
safmr
4
$3,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.