Reads as: riskier than 42.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
GIVENS LAURA
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.67
3.23
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.03
0.56
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.51
3.13
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.74
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
76.3
3.67
1.03
0.46
2.19
3.51
0.0%
2025Q3
92
77.5
3.69
0.90
0.52
2.27
3.54
0.0%
2025Q2
91
78.0
3.66
0.89
0.53
2.25
3.53
0.0%
2025Q1
90
74.8
3.29
0.87
0.66
1.76
3.15
0.0%
2024Q4
92
76.7
3.21
0.80
0.60
1.82
3.04
0.0%
2024Q3
92
78.5
3.15
0.84
0.65
1.66
2.97
0.0%
2024Q2
91
77.7
3.39
0.73
0.79
1.88
3.19
0.0%
2024Q1
91
78.3
3.39
0.70
0.79
1.90
3.20
0.0%
2023Q4
92
76.0
3.30
0.63
0.87
1.80
3.10
0.0%
2023Q3
92
77.4
3.43
0.70
0.86
1.87
3.23
0.0%
2023Q2
91
81.5
3.51
0.58
0.82
2.10
3.30
0.0%
2023Q1
90
86.9
3.27
0.67
0.68
1.92
3.11
0.0%
2022Q4
92
79.1
3.35
0.76
0.76
1.83
3.22
0.0%
2022Q3
92
82.9
3.34
0.81
0.74
1.78
3.12
0.0%
2022Q2
91
83.2
3.31
0.72
0.78
1.81
3.06
0.0%
2022Q1
90
84.8
3.28
0.73
0.75
1.79
3.13
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 8E × 7F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-23
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-06-07
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-12-07
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2024-12-07
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2024-12-07
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-12-07
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-12-07
2024-04-09
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-04-09
2024-01-25
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-03-28
2023-08-24
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-09-15
2023-08-24
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2023-09-15
2022-07-28
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2022-09-21
2022-07-28
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2022-09-21
2022-07-28
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
E
2022-09-21
2022-07-28
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
E
2022-09-21
2022-07-28
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-09-21
2022-07-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-09-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
39
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CASPER REAL ESTATE INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CASPER REAL ESTATE INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CADWELL, STACEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
CADWELL, STACEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-02
current
pecos_ownership
CROSS, CINDY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DIVILLACCI, JASON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, TODD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
GIVENS, LAURA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GIVENS, LAURA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY, TERRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAY, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-12-29
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, AUBREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-27
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-12-29
current
pecos_ownership
SCHMIDT, DEREK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWANKER, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THURMOND, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZIEGLER, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
CASPER R/E INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
CASPER R/E INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
CASPER REAL ESTATE INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
FORREST PRESTON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-09-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUBREY PRESTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY CROSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEREK SCHMIDT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PRESTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-12-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ZIEGLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-09-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON DIVILLACCI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN THURMOND
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA GIVENS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA GIVENS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA LAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SWANKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACEY CADWELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACEY CADWELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY HENRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLETCHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$1,834,984
$348,376
—
—
—
5
propco
2024-06-30
$1,819,888
$317,716
—
—
—
5
propco
2023-06-30
$1,853,650
$348,372
—
—
—
5
propco
2022-06-30
$2,000,962
$437,857
—
—
—
4
propco
2021-06-30
$2,066,874
$420,157
—
—
—
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 56025
acs median gross
0
$814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56025
fmr
0
$767
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56025
acs median gross
1
$750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56025
fmr
1
$852
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56025
acs median gross
2
$974
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56025
fmr
2
$1,082
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56025
acs median gross
3
$1,325
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56025
fmr
3
$1,505
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56025
acs median gross
4
$1,466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56025
fmr
4
$1,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56025
acs median gross
5
$1,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56025
acs median gross
$1,016
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56025
acs recent mover gross
$1,127
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82601
acs median gross
0
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82601
acs median gross
1
$697
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82601
acs median gross
2
$867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82601
acs median gross
3
$1,247
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82601
acs median gross
4
$1,286
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82601
acs median gross
$835
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82601
acs recent mover gross
$884
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 82601
payment standard 110
0
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 90
0
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
safmr
0
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 110
3
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 90
3
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
safmr
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 110
4
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
payment standard 90
4
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82601
safmr
4
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.