Reads as: riskier than 46.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER ROBERT
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
CALCUTT JOSEPH
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
OLIVER ANNA
25 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL JOHN
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCNEILL RONALD
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
33 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.91
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.67
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.00
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
115.1
2.91
0.23
0.81
1.87
2.67
30.2%
2025Q3
92
111.0
2.91
0.24
0.74
1.93
2.69
34.1%
2025Q2
91
110.4
2.88
0.18
0.78
1.92
2.70
31.9%
2025Q1
90
108.3
2.76
0.17
0.77
1.82
2.57
27.7%
2024Q4
92
107.4
2.97
0.32
0.67
1.99
2.71
30.8%
2024Q3
92
103.1
3.06
0.31
0.65
2.10
2.61
28.1%
2024Q2
91
99.9
3.10
0.27
0.75
2.09
2.79
36.2%
2024Q1
91
98.2
3.12
0.23
0.78
2.11
2.82
42.2%
2023Q4
92
98.1
3.17
0.18
0.76
2.22
3.02
50.3%
2023Q3
92
101.5
3.02
0.14
0.80
2.08
2.77
42.5%
2023Q2
91
97.0
2.83
0.17
0.86
1.80
2.57
51.9%
2023Q1
90
96.0
3.09
0.22
0.82
2.05
2.78
47.5%
2022Q4
92
95.4
2.90
0.18
0.89
1.84
2.67
45.2%
2022Q3
92
92.1
2.82
0.23
0.81
1.78
2.55
41.1%
2022Q2
91
99.4
2.32
0.20
0.72
1.40
2.04
32.7%
2022Q1
90
98.9
2.12
0.29
0.58
1.25
1.93
7.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
B
2026-03-27
2024-12-19
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-11-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
33
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BROWN, NOLAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARNAEZ ZAPATA, GERARDO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
CALCUTT, JOSEPH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY PROPERTIES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LOCKETT, ELIZABETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
MCNEILL, RONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
OLIVER, ANNA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-05
current
pecos_ownership
PURVIS, JENNY
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
TRIAD MEDICAL SERVICES, INC.
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-06
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
YADKIN NURSING CARE CENTER, INC.
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY LONG TERM CARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NOLAN BROWN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN A MCNEILL JR 2012 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD B AND CYNTHIA J MCNEILL 2013 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
RONALD B. AND CYNTHIA J. MCNEILL 2013 IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH LOCKETT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERARDO ARNAEZ ZAPATA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNY PURVIS
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MCNEILL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH CALCUTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MILLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD MCNEILL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$2,198,525
—
$646,209
$6,101
$749,205
5
—
2023-09-30
$2,365,533
—
—
—
$1,334,241
5
propco
2022-09-30
$1,014,574
—
—
—
—
8
—
2021-09-30
$941,028
—
—
—
—
8
—
2020-09-30
$529,644
—
—
—
—
10
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37197
fmr
0
$995
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37197
acs median gross
1
$486
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37197
fmr
1
$1,082
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37197
acs median gross
2
$772
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37197
fmr
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37197
acs median gross
3
$869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37197
fmr
3
$1,607
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37197
acs median gross
4
$1,047
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37197
fmr
4
$1,898
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37197
acs median gross
$766
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37197
acs recent mover gross
$1,035
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27055
acs median gross
1
$725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27055
acs median gross
2
$737
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27055
acs median gross
3
$945
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27055
acs median gross
4
$1,145
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 27055
acs median gross
$831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 27055
payment standard 110
0
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 90
0
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
safmr
0
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 110
1
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 90
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
safmr
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 110
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 90
2
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
safmr
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 110
3
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 90
3
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
safmr
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 110
4
$1,837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
payment standard 90
4
$1,503
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 27055
safmr
4
$1,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.