Reads as: riskier than 10.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MILLER DAVID
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.84
4.20
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.49
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.68
3.99
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.90
4.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
32.3
3.84
0.49
0.76
2.59
3.68
11.8%
2025Q3
92
32.1
4.13
0.53
0.70
2.90
3.84
17.4%
2025Q2
91
32.6
4.22
0.24
0.79
3.18
4.16
36.8%
2025Q1
90
31.5
4.26
0.25
0.95
3.06
4.33
33.6%
2024Q4
92
31.5
4.87
0.14
1.05
3.68
4.77
37.8%
2024Q3
92
32.1
3.65
0.15
0.99
2.52
3.52
46.1%
2024Q2
91
31.7
4.08
0.56
0.75
2.76
3.93
28.3%
2024Q1
91
28.4
4.36
0.91
0.50
2.95
4.26
16.7%
2023Q4
92
29.1
4.37
0.81
0.60
2.96
4.17
15.0%
2023Q3
92
28.9
4.50
0.68
0.74
3.08
4.46
29.8%
2023Q1
90
29.5
3.71
0.53
0.68
2.50
3.71
36.4%
2022Q4
92
27.9
3.55
0.65
0.39
2.50
3.44
25.9%
2022Q3
92
27.0
3.14
0.70
0.38
2.06
2.87
12.8%
2022Q2
91
26.7
3.26
0.64
0.20
2.41
2.94
23.3%
2022Q1
90
26.1
3.52
0.78
0.35
2.39
3.40
9.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
24
D × 16E × 1F × 3G × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-30
Health
F0576
Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods.
F
2026-02-27
2026-01-30
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2026-02-27
2026-01-30
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-02-27
2024-09-13
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-13
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2024-10-18
2024-09-13
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-18
2024-09-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-10-18
2024-09-13
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-10-18
2024-07-18
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2023-11-20
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
G
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-07-09
2023-06-14
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-07-09
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AHO, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
AIDAN HEALTH SERVICES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRANDELL, LINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DEVANEY, JACQUELINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LITTLE, ROY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-10-10
current
pecos_ownership
MEYER, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, DAVID
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
RADU, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
REMLEY, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARK REMLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES MEYER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
14%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACQUELINE DEVANEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
14%
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA CRANDELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
14%
2018-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL AHO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
14%
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL RADU
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
14%
2012-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROY LITTLE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
14%
2008-10-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MILLER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2018-07-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 41007
acs median gross
0
$929
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41007
fmr
0
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41007
acs median gross
1
$839
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41007
fmr
1
$1,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41007
acs median gross
2
$1,190
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41007
fmr
2
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41007
acs median gross
3
$1,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41007
fmr
3
$1,995
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41007
acs median gross
4
$2,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41007
fmr
4
$2,444
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 41007
acs median gross
5
$2,646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41007
acs median gross
$1,180
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 41007
acs recent mover gross
$1,629
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97103
acs median gross
0
$1,171
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97103
acs median gross
1
$828
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97103
acs median gross
2
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97103
acs median gross
3
$1,409
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97103
acs median gross
4
$1,560
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97103
acs median gross
5
$2,811
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97103
acs median gross
$1,259
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 97103
acs recent mover gross
$1,740
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 97103
payment standard 110
0
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 90
0
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
safmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 110
1
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 90
1
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
safmr
1
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 110
2
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 90
2
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
safmr
2
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 110
3
$2,255
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 90
3
$1,845
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
safmr
3
$2,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 110
4
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
payment standard 90
4
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 97103
safmr
4
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.