Reads as: riskier than 46.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CIBC BANK USA
155 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.93
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.92
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.93
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
126.5
2.93
0.27
0.71
1.94
2.92
0.0%
2025Q3
92
125.2
2.89
0.16
0.73
2.00
2.81
0.0%
2025Q2
91
122.0
2.99
0.11
0.85
2.03
2.87
0.0%
2025Q1
90
121.4
2.97
0.20
0.74
2.03
2.87
0.0%
2024Q4
92
121.6
3.12
0.15
0.75
2.22
2.94
0.0%
2024Q3
92
123.3
2.96
0.18
0.77
2.01
2.84
0.0%
2024Q2
91
122.8
3.11
0.21
0.81
2.10
3.04
0.0%
2024Q1
91
125.4
2.99
0.16
0.82
2.01
2.94
0.0%
2023Q4
92
125.0
2.92
0.18
0.80
1.94
2.77
0.0%
2023Q3
92
125.3
3.02
0.19
0.87
1.96
2.84
0.0%
2023Q2
91
122.7
2.95
0.21
0.76
1.99
2.71
0.0%
2023Q1
90
118.0
3.01
0.23
0.83
1.95
2.75
0.0%
2022Q4
92
109.4
3.03
0.18
0.89
1.96
2.82
0.0%
2022Q3
92
112.1
3.03
0.20
0.93
1.89
2.68
0.0%
2022Q2
91
107.0
2.30
0.17
0.81
1.31
2.06
0.0%
2022Q1
90
101.6
2.30
0.21
0.79
1.30
2.13
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-03-04
2025-09-29
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
—
2024-10-18
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-10-25
2024-04-16
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-04-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SHG AUTUMN, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRYANT, LALISTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
CIBC BANK USA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
CITRIN COOPERMAN ADVISORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRUMET, SURAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-18
current
pecos_ownership
NICOLUZAKIS, GREGORY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
OHI ASSET (NC) RAEFORD, LP
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2016-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
SABER GOVERNANCE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SABER HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHG AUTUMN, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
SHG MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHG MT, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
SULLIVAN, MELISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
VOLPE, BENJAMIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALKER & ASSOCIATES PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-18
current
pecos_ownership
WEISBERG, WILLIAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
WEISBERG, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEISBERG, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
SABER HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DECANTED WILLIAM I. WEISBERG FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST (DATED SEPT 30, 2020
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
67%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WIW DYNASTY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
67%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN VOLPE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
50%
2019-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM WEISBERG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
50%
2019-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN N. VOLPE FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST (DATED DECEMBER 29, 2020)
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BNV DYNASTY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY NICOLUZAKIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2019-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LALISTER BRYANT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA SULLIVAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SURAH GRUMET
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM WEISBERG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,037,036
—
—
$361,002
$2,578
5
—
2023-12-31
$983,734
—
—
$358,248
$2,159
5
—
2022-12-31
$995,061
—
—
$423,331
$2,350
4
—
2021-12-31
$1,060,291
—
—
$504,106
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$918,859
—
—
$378,072
—
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37093
acs median gross
0
$750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37093
fmr
0
$756
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37093
acs median gross
1
$722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37093
fmr
1
$761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37093
acs median gross
2
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37093
fmr
2
$998
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37093
acs median gross
3
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37093
fmr
3
$1,388
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37093
acs median gross
4
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37093
fmr
4
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37093
acs median gross
5
$1,858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37093
acs median gross
$1,089
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37093
acs recent mover gross
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28376
acs median gross
0
$826
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28376
acs median gross
1
$722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28376
acs median gross
2
$878
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28376
acs median gross
3
$1,249
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28376
acs median gross
4
$1,709
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28376
acs median gross
5
$1,858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28376
acs median gross
$1,131
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28376
acs recent mover gross
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28376
payment standard 110
0
$924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 90
0
$756
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
safmr
0
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 110
1
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 90
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
safmr
1
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 110
2
$1,221
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 90
2
$999
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
safmr
2
$1,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 110
3
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 90
3
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
safmr
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 110
4
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
payment standard 90
4
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28376
safmr
4
$1,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.