1777 LAWRENCE STREET, RAHWAY, NJ 07065 · CCN 315198
Composite
96.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
122
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 96.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Top-decile risk vs 4–5 star rating
10.4
this facility
2026-07-29
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
STERN SAMUEL
14 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LEIFER JOEL
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.88
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.24
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.93
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.86
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
115.8
2.88
0.24
0.90
1.74
2.93
8.8%
2025Q3
92
114.7
2.92
0.20
0.94
1.77
2.98
12.0%
2025Q2
91
114.5
2.91
0.19
0.90
1.82
2.80
6.2%
2025Q1
90
118.0
2.84
0.32
0.78
1.74
2.88
4.8%
2024Q4
92
111.7
2.73
0.23
0.83
1.67
2.67
1.8%
2024Q3
92
108.0
2.88
0.20
0.91
1.77
2.73
13.2%
2024Q2
91
108.5
3.05
0.17
1.04
1.84
2.83
25.2%
2024Q1
91
110.0
2.82
0.22
0.96
1.64
2.79
27.5%
2023Q4
92
114.7
2.75
0.30
0.83
1.62
2.79
29.4%
2023Q3
92
104.9
2.86
0.24
0.92
1.69
2.84
29.6%
2023Q2
91
101.2
2.85
0.17
0.84
1.85
2.65
22.4%
2023Q1
90
96.4
2.60
0.22
0.66
1.72
2.41
21.1%
2022Q4
92
88.8
2.62
0.42
0.50
1.70
2.49
9.0%
2022Q3
92
84.7
2.85
0.49
0.52
1.83
2.55
7.3%
2022Q2
91
76.7
3.00
0.48
0.65
1.87
2.64
6.7%
2022Q1
90
66.7
3.10
0.44
0.74
1.92
2.87
1.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2026-05-23
2026-03-24
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2026-05-23
2026-03-24
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-05-23
2026-03-24
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
E
2026-05-23
2026-03-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-05-23
2025-09-02
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-10-22
2025-09-02
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
G
2025-10-22
2025-09-02
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-10-22
2025-05-09
Health · complaint
F0573
Let each resident or the resident's legal representative access or purchase copies of all the resident's records.
D
2025-06-30
2024-11-13
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-12-27
2024-11-13
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-12-27
2024-11-13
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-12-27
2024-11-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-12-27
2024-11-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-12-27
2023-09-06
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-09-11
2023-09-06
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-09-11
2023-09-06
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-09-11
2023-09-06
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-09-11
2023-09-06
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-09-13
2023-09-06
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-09-13
2023-09-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-09-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
11
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADROIT REALTY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
RAHWAY REALTY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALEXANDER, SHERITA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
LEIFER, JOEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, SAMUEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
ZUPNICK, JOEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
ADROIT REALTY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-12-20
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JOEL LEIFER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL ZUPNICK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL STERN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERITA ALEXANDER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,829,155
$14,205
—
—
$183,226
4
propco
2023-12-31
$1,673,737
—
—
—
—
1
propco
2022-12-31
$1,268,976
—
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34039
acs median gross
0
$1,283
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
0
$1,612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
1
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
1
$1,822
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
2
$1,785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
2
$2,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
3
$2,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
3
$2,761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
4
$2,369
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
fmr
4
$3,137
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34039
acs median gross
5
$2,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
acs median gross
$1,730
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34039
acs recent mover gross
$2,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07065
acs median gross
0
$1,079
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07065
acs median gross
1
$1,608
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07065
acs median gross
2
$2,154
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07065
acs median gross
3
$1,936
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07065
acs median gross
4
$2,245
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07065
acs median gross
$1,845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07065
acs recent mover gross
$2,323
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07065
payment standard 110
0
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 90
0
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
safmr
0
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 110
1
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 90
1
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
safmr
1
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 110
2
$2,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 90
2
$2,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
safmr
2
$2,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 110
3
$3,256
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 90
3
$2,664
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
safmr
3
$2,960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 110
4
$3,696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
payment standard 90
4
$3,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07065
safmr
4
$3,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.