Reads as: riskier than 80.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.96
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.30
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.92
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.98
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
87.1
2.96
0.30
0.72
1.94
2.92
11.9%
2025Q3
92
92.3
2.84
0.28
0.65
1.90
2.69
6.4%
2025Q2
91
90.6
2.88
0.37
0.65
1.86
2.79
5.9%
2025Q1
90
87.2
2.87
0.33
0.72
1.83
2.75
4.9%
2024Q4
92
85.7
2.93
0.26
0.84
1.83
2.88
1.3%
2024Q3
92
89.9
2.93
0.33
0.76
1.84
2.92
5.6%
2024Q2
91
91.8
3.13
0.44
0.64
2.05
3.00
26.4%
2024Q1
91
91.9
3.11
0.40
0.69
2.01
2.96
28.8%
2023Q4
92
90.4
2.77
0.37
0.66
1.74
2.65
19.7%
2023Q3
92
83.7
2.84
0.38
0.65
1.81
2.72
0.1%
2023Q2
91
82.2
3.29
0.38
0.84
2.07
3.01
10.8%
2023Q1
90
82.9
3.19
0.31
0.84
2.04
2.93
11.2%
2022Q4
92
83.3
3.13
0.35
0.77
2.02
2.92
11.1%
2022Q3
92
75.3
3.34
0.34
0.72
2.27
3.31
13.0%
2022Q2
91
75.5
3.14
0.45
0.64
2.05
2.82
9.9%
2022Q1
90
78.2
2.75
0.47
0.65
1.63
2.39
10.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-04-03
2026-03-19
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2026-04-07
2026-03-19
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-04-08
2026-03-19
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-04-08
2026-03-19
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-04-08
2026-03-19
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2026-04-08
2026-03-19
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2026-04-03
2026-03-19
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-04-08
2026-03-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-08
2024-12-05
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-12-16
2024-12-05
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-12-16
2024-12-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-12-16
2024-12-05
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2024-12-16
2023-09-28
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
B
2023-10-19
2023-09-28
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
B
2023-10-19
2023-09-28
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
B
2023-10-19
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2023-10-19
2023-09-28
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2023-10-19
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-10-20
2023-09-28
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-10-20
2023-09-28
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-10-19
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2023-10-19
2023-09-28
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-10-19
2023-09-28
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
F
2023-10-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
12
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PINEHURST REALTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PINEHURST REALTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PINEHURST NC INVESTMENTS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2018-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2018-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
GORHAM, KELLY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
JEREMIAS, BARUCH
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
PINEHURST OPCO, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, JACOB
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY GORHAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2018-07-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PINEHURST RLTY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BARUCH JEREMIAS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2018-07-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB STERN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2018-07-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,347,726
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$1,704,877
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$1,612,612
—
—
—
$466,075
2
—
2021-12-31
$1,625,614
—
—
—
$353,362
2
propco
2020-12-31
$1,163,769
—
—
—
$413,351
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37125
acs median gross
0
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
0
$1,157
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
1
$1,007
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
1
$1,239
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
2
$1,125
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
2
$1,358
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
3
$1,415
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
3
$1,889
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
4
$2,540
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
fmr
4
$2,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37125
acs median gross
5
$2,551
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
acs median gross
$1,254
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37125
acs recent mover gross
$2,022
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
0
$1,728
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
1
$1,399
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
2
$1,488
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
3
$1,844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
4
$2,449
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs median gross
$1,767
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28374
acs recent mover gross
$2,134
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28374
payment standard 110
0
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
0
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
0
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 110
1
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
1
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
1
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 110
2
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
2
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
2
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 110
3
$3,047
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
3
$2,493
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
3
$2,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 110
4
$3,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
payment standard 90
4
$3,006
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28374
safmr
4
$3,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.