315 EAST LINDSLEY ROAD, CEDAR GROVE, NJ 07009 · CCN 315194 · chain SMS 2021 TRUST
Composite
62.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
151
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 62.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
DES CAPITAL LLC
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
JRK INVESTMENTS LLC
25 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.01
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.26
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.06
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.99
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
141.0
3.01
0.26
0.65
2.10
3.06
7.7%
2025Q3
92
136.7
3.07
0.31
0.68
2.09
3.14
5.5%
2025Q2
91
141.7
3.01
0.30
0.64
2.06
3.11
8.1%
2025Q1
90
141.1
2.99
0.33
0.65
2.01
3.01
12.2%
2024Q4
92
134.3
3.06
0.28
0.68
2.11
3.05
10.5%
2024Q3
92
129.1
3.42
0.37
0.76
2.29
3.38
27.4%
2024Q2
91
128.5
3.81
0.46
0.67
2.68
3.56
33.4%
2024Q1
91
140.8
3.48
0.47
0.62
2.38
3.14
23.7%
2023Q4
92
136.1
2.60
0.55
0.38
1.66
2.34
0.0%
2023Q3
92
135.5
2.77
0.53
0.45
1.78
2.77
10.8%
2023Q2
91
130.1
3.82
1.74
0.41
1.67
3.39
32.2%
2023Q1
90
129.4
2.84
0.61
0.31
1.91
2.58
16.7%
2022Q3
92
118.9
2.76
0.70
0.16
1.89
2.59
0.0%
2022Q2
91
123.6
2.75
0.78
0.15
1.82
2.54
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
B × 1D × 4E × 3J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-01-25
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2024-02-05
2024-01-25
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-02-05
2021-09-28
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2021-10-11
2021-09-28
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
B
2021-10-11
2021-09-28
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2021-10-11
2021-09-28
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
J
2021-10-05
2021-09-28
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2021-10-11
2021-09-28
Health
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2021-10-11
2021-09-28
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2021-10-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
28
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PC ST. VINCENT'S OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
PC ST. VINCENTS PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AMITHS, RUTH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
DES CAPITAL LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
GADARLA, MAMATHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GREWAL, BALJINDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
JRK INVESTMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
KLUGMAN, JACOB
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
LEVOVITZ, YITZCHOK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
MERCADO, WANDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
PC ST. VINCENT'S PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
PC ST. VINCENT'S TOPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC (DE)
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
ROMANO-DIAZ, TIFFANY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
SMS 2021 TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
ST. VINCENT'S PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, SHALOM
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
STERNBUCH, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
DANIEL STERNBUCH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB KLUGMAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHALOM STEIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2023-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BALJINDER GREWAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAMATHA GADARLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUTH AMITHS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIFFANY ROMANO-DIAZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WANDA MERCADO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZ LEVOVITZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-21
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK LEVOVITZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,773,008
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-20
$1,400,352
—
—
—
$113,120
1
—
2022-12-31
$3,430,508
—
—
—
$2,156,992
1
—
2021-12-31
$1,123,241
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$1,455,940
—
—
—
$153,308
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34013
acs median gross
0
$1,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
0
$1,612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
1
$1,289
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
1
$1,822
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
2
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
2
$2,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
3
$1,864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
3
$2,761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
4
$2,214
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
fmr
4
$3,137
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34013
acs median gross
5
$2,456
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
acs median gross
$1,531
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34013
acs recent mover gross
$1,871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07009
acs median gross
1
$1,483
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07009
acs median gross
2
$2,247
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07009
acs median gross
3
$2,305
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07009
acs median gross
$1,896
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07009
payment standard 110
0
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 90
0
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
safmr
0
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 110
1
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 90
1
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
safmr
1
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 110
2
$2,695
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 90
2
$2,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
safmr
2
$2,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 110
3
$3,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 90
3
$2,763
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
safmr
3
$3,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 110
4
$3,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
payment standard 90
4
$3,141
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07009
safmr
4
$3,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.