Reads as: riskier than 26.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.36
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.12
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.14
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.44
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
137.1
3.36
0.12
0.81
2.43
3.14
0.0%
2025Q3
92
135.8
3.09
0.07
0.72
2.30
2.92
0.0%
2025Q2
91
138.0
2.97
0.08
0.76
2.14
2.83
0.0%
2025Q1
90
140.3
2.89
0.10
0.74
2.05
2.81
0.0%
2024Q4
92
136.9
2.91
0.05
0.75
2.12
2.75
0.0%
2024Q3
92
133.9
3.01
0.06
0.75
2.20
2.84
0.0%
2024Q2
91
132.3
3.06
0.08
0.78
2.21
2.89
0.0%
2024Q1
91
133.3
2.96
0.09
0.76
2.12
2.91
0.0%
2023Q4
92
129.8
3.16
0.05
0.83
2.27
3.06
0.0%
2023Q3
92
135.6
3.20
0.09
0.79
2.32
2.89
0.7%
2023Q2
91
133.5
2.99
0.05
0.76
2.18
2.60
16.5%
2023Q1
90
136.9
2.91
0.09
0.71
2.12
2.43
17.2%
2022Q4
92
135.4
3.08
0.10
0.65
2.33
2.69
15.4%
2022Q3
92
132.4
2.78
0.05
0.66
2.07
2.33
16.9%
2022Q2
91
130.4
2.81
0.09
0.67
2.06
2.33
20.3%
2022Q1
90
123.7
3.26
0.15
0.80
2.32
2.65
35.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-09-10
2025-08-12
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2025-09-10
2025-08-12
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-09-10
2025-08-12
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2025-09-10
2025-08-12
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
E
2025-09-10
2025-08-12
Health
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2025-09-10
2025-08-12
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-09-10
2025-08-12
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2025-09-10
2025-08-12
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-09-10
2024-05-02
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-02
Health
F0914
Provide bedrooms that don't allow residents to see each other when privacy is needed.
D
2024-06-14
2023-01-12
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-02-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WHITE OAK MANOR INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
24%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH CECIL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY CECIL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENI FEESER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS CECIL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
19%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OLIVER CECIL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH CECIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2004-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY CECIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2004-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS CECIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2004-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS CECIL
CORPORATE OFFICER
5%
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENI FEESER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2004-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BARBER
CORPORATE OFFICER
5%
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BARBER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2004-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OLIVER CECIL
CORPORATE OFFICER
5%
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OLIVER CECIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2004-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID HANEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
1%
2012-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID HANEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-08-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID HANEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-09-30
$387,992
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-09-30
$1,030,848
—
—
—
—
2
—
2021-09-30
$947,700
—
—
—
—
2
—
2020-09-30
$967,865
—
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37045
acs median gross
0
$808
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37045
fmr
0
$758
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37045
acs median gross
1
$722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37045
fmr
1
$763
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37045
acs median gross
2
$861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37045
fmr
2
$925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37045
acs median gross
3
$1,091
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37045
fmr
3
$1,286
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37045
acs median gross
4
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37045
fmr
4
$1,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37045
acs median gross
5
$1,146
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37045
acs median gross
$914
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37045
acs recent mover gross
$1,377
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28086
acs median gross
0
$831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28086
acs median gross
1
$712
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28086
acs median gross
2
$831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28086
acs median gross
3
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28086
acs median gross
4
$1,133
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28086
acs median gross
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28086
acs recent mover gross
$1,546
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28086
payment standard 110
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 90
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
safmr
0
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 110
1
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 90
1
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
safmr
1
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 110
4
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
payment standard 90
4
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28086
safmr
4
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.