Composite
26.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 63.1 | 63.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 12.13 | in index |
| financial risk | 38.7 | 38.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.93 | in index |
| billing conduct | 31.6 | 32.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.29 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 31.1 | 21.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.18 | in index |
| chow risk | 30.2 | 29.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.48 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +21.2 vs natl | EMANUEL YOSEF | 12 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +20.5 vs natl | ALLIANCE HEALTH GROUP LLC | 10 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 60% fined | ALLIANCE HEALTH GROUP LLC | 10 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 50% fined | EMANUEL YOSEF | 12 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 32.3 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 33.0 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 38.8 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 21.5 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 63.1 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 74.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 54.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 47.6 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 43.3 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 21.3 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 21.3 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 63.1 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 63.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.99 | -1.65 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.75 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.40 | +0.11 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.96 | -0.88 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 6.00 | +0.32 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.99 | -0.27 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.40 | -0.19 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NC median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.09 | 3.08 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.13 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.01 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.12 | 3.14 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 86.1 | 3.09 | 0.13 | 1.05 | 1.91 | 3.01 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 87.9 | 3.03 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 1.90 | 3.04 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 86.0 | 3.11 | 0.13 | 1.04 | 1.94 | 3.24 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 88.2 | 2.98 | 0.12 | 0.93 | 1.93 | 3.09 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 86.0 | 3.08 | 0.12 | 0.94 | 2.02 | 3.14 | 0.5% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 85.4 | 2.83 | 0.14 | 0.75 | 1.94 | 2.78 | 0.7% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 85.6 | 3.10 | 0.12 | 0.79 | 2.18 | 2.96 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 86.7 | 2.94 | 0.09 | 0.73 | 2.13 | 2.63 | 0.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 86.1 | 2.73 | 0.13 | 0.70 | 1.90 | 2.34 | 9.3% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 84.8 | 3.23 | 0.16 | 0.72 | 2.36 | 3.11 | 34.8% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 85.9 | 3.26 | 0.13 | 0.91 | 2.22 | 3.16 | 37.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 83.3 | 3.31 | 0.05 | 0.98 | 2.28 | 3.17 | 40.2% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 75.7 | 3.46 | 0.08 | 0.88 | 2.51 | 3.30 | 42.5% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 70.5 | 3.33 | 0.07 | 0.68 | 2.58 | 3.10 | 41.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 68.9 | 3.16 | 0.07 | 0.67 | 2.42 | 3.02 | 31.5% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 69.1 | 3.04 | 0.14 | 0.69 | 2.21 | 2.79 | 28.3% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2025-12-30 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2025-12-30 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | B | 2025-12-30 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2025-12-30 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-12-30 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2025-12-30 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | B | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | B | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | C | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | B | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | B | 2024-08-28 |
| 2024-08-08 | Health · complaint | F0943 | Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation. | D | 2024-08-28 |
| 2023-10-11 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-11-16 |
| 2023-08-09 | Health · complaint | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | E | 2023-08-31 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | B | 2023-07-24 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | D | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | B | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | B | 2023-06-01 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-08-09 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | E | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-06-20 |
| 2023-05-04 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2023-08-09 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLIANCE HEALTH GROUP LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EMANUEL, YOSEF | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FINK, LAUREN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VERA, TRINITY | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ALIGNMENT HOLDCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| COALITION GROUP LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| YOSEF EMANUEL | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LAUREN FINK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 0% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TRINITY VERA | CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-01 | — | PEE DEE ROAD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC | ACCORDIUS HEALTH AT ABERDEEN LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat | — | — | — | 50 | WILKINSON BLVD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Warsaw Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | — | — | — | 100 | WARSAW OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Walnut Cove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 511 WINDMILL STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Wilora Lake Healthcare | — | — | — | 70 | 6001 WILORA LAKE ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Clay County Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 86 VALLEY HIDEAWAY DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Emerald Ridge Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 25 REYNOLDS MOUNTAIN BOULEVARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Willowbrook Rehabilitation and Care | — | — | — | 76 | 333 EAST LEE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Westwood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 68 | 625 ASHLAND STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Hibriten Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 2030 HARPER AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Forrest Oakes Healthcare | — | — | — | 60 | 620 HEATHWOOD DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Cardinal Healthcare and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 63 | 931 NORTH ASPEN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Valley View Care and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 76 | 551 KENT STREET OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 37125 | acs median gross | 0 | $987 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37125 | fmr | 0 | $1,157 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37125 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,007 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37125 | fmr | 1 | $1,239 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37125 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,125 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37125 | fmr | 2 | $1,358 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37125 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,415 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37125 | fmr | 3 | $1,889 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37125 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,540 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37125 | fmr | 4 | $2,278 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37125 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,551 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37125 | acs median gross | $1,254 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 37125 | acs recent mover gross | $2,022 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 28315 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,134 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28315 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,102 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28315 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,614 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28315 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,740 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28315 | acs median gross | $1,289 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 28315 | acs recent mover gross | $1,442 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,078 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $882 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | safmr | 0 | $980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,144 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $936 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | safmr | 1 | $1,040 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,276 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,044 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | safmr | 2 | $1,160 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,771 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,449 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | safmr | 3 | $1,610 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,134 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,746 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28315 | safmr | 4 | $1,940 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |