514 Old Mount Holly Road, Stanley, NC 28164 · CCN 345264
Composite
82.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
106
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 82.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.85
3.08
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.71
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.31
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.05
3.14
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
88.1
4.85
0.71
0.82
3.32
4.31
0.0%
2025Q3
92
85.5
4.86
0.70
0.79
3.37
4.31
0.0%
2025Q2
91
88.0
4.65
0.61
0.85
3.19
4.05
0.0%
2025Q1
90
88.5
4.84
0.59
0.89
3.37
4.43
0.0%
2024Q4
92
90.6
4.88
0.57
0.86
3.45
4.45
0.0%
2024Q3
92
92.9
4.81
0.58
0.88
3.35
4.32
0.0%
2024Q2
91
84.8
5.02
0.47
1.05
3.49
4.40
0.0%
2024Q1
91
91.1
4.45
0.49
0.95
3.01
3.85
0.0%
2023Q4
92
78.9
5.07
0.73
0.92
3.42
4.55
0.0%
2023Q3
92
81.4
4.73
0.73
0.82
3.18
4.30
0.0%
2023Q2
91
81.7
4.68
0.53
0.96
3.19
4.17
0.0%
2023Q1
90
71.0
4.96
0.53
1.20
3.24
4.42
0.0%
2022Q4
92
60.7
5.99
0.56
1.75
3.68
5.37
0.0%
2022Q3
92
61.3
5.33
0.51
1.54
3.28
4.76
0.0%
2022Q2
91
60.3
2.04
0.19
0.42
1.43
1.45
0.0%
2022Q1
90
59.1
2.75
0.23
0.51
2.00
2.31
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-01-22
2024-10-25
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-11-23
2024-10-25
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-11-23
2024-10-25
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-07-12
2024-10-25
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
J
2024-11-23
2024-10-25
Health · complaint
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-11-23
2024-10-25
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
J
2024-11-23
2023-05-23
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
K
2023-06-19
2023-05-23
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
K
2023-06-19
2023-05-23
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
K
2023-06-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
43
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ABERNATHY, JUDITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAKER, DANA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRYANT, SHARON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
CROTTS, ALLISON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CROTTS, ALLISON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DEFELICE, JENNIFER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DEFELICE, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENSLEY, RONNIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GANTT, DERRICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
GRICE, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARPER, DEBORAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-26
current
pecos_ownership
KIRKLAND, CATHY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAUNEY, KEVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCMINN, ROB
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCMINN, ROB
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MULL, SANDRA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1997-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
NEELY, TERESA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, MELISSA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, STEVE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-06-07
current
pecos_ownership
WEST, TERESA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALLISON CROTTS
CORPORATE OFFICER
6%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLISON CROTTS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2015-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHY KIRKLAND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANA BAKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH HARPER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2015-01-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DERRICK GANTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2023-01-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH GRICE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER DEFELICE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUDITH ABERNATHY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN MAUNEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2008-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL DIXON
CORPORATE OFFICER
6%
2001-06-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROB MCMINN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROB MCMINN
CORPORATE OFFICER
6%
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONNIE ENSLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
6%
2008-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVE SMITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
6%
2013-06-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA NEELY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2008-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA WEST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
6%
2008-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER DEFELICE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN NELSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA MULL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1997-07-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHARON BRYANT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 37071
acs median gross
0
$1,055
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
0
$1,469
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
1
$955
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
1
$1,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
2
$1,115
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
2
$1,686
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
3
$1,231
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
3
$2,076
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
4
$2,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
fmr
4
$2,637
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 37071
acs median gross
5
$1,773
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
acs median gross
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 37071
acs recent mover gross
$1,381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28164
acs median gross
1
$1,586
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28164
acs median gross
2
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28164
acs median gross
3
$1,331
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28164
acs median gross
$1,126
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 28164
acs recent mover gross
$1,434
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 28164
payment standard 110
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 90
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
safmr
0
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 110
1
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 90
1
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
safmr
1
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 110
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 90
2
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
safmr
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 110
3
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 90
3
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
safmr
3
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 110
4
$2,222
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
payment standard 90
4
$1,818
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 28164
safmr
4
$2,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.