Reads as: riskier than 64.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.94
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.44
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.81
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.99
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.7
2.94
0.44
0.50
2.00
2.81
12.4%
2025Q3
92
89.4
2.92
0.41
0.48
2.03
2.76
15.9%
2025Q2
91
87.0
2.97
0.43
0.54
2.00
2.86
13.6%
2025Q1
90
85.5
3.12
0.49
0.50
2.12
3.08
18.3%
2024Q4
92
84.8
3.33
0.68
0.58
2.07
3.14
17.5%
2024Q3
92
89.9
3.23
0.65
0.53
2.05
3.04
16.9%
2024Q2
91
89.4
3.20
0.64
0.53
2.02
3.04
17.4%
2024Q1
91
92.7
2.86
0.46
0.51
1.88
2.72
16.5%
2023Q4
92
88.3
2.81
0.45
0.54
1.81
2.75
16.4%
2023Q3
92
87.8
2.80
0.42
0.57
1.81
2.73
20.8%
2023Q2
91
80.9
2.78
0.35
0.69
1.74
2.72
16.3%
2023Q1
90
75.2
2.88
0.36
0.69
1.83
2.79
11.9%
2022Q4
92
78.1
3.00
0.39
0.66
1.95
2.92
18.4%
2022Q3
92
77.6
2.75
0.41
0.51
1.83
2.60
20.7%
2022Q2
91
76.3
2.67
0.41
0.54
1.73
2.48
6.9%
2022Q1
90
70.0
2.78
0.50
0.42
1.86
2.79
9.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 4E × 4J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-05
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-04-11
2025-03-05
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2025-04-11
2023-02-07
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2023-03-10
2023-02-07
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-03-10
2023-02-07
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
J
2023-03-10
2023-02-07
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-03-10
2023-02-07
Health
F0712
Ensure that the resident and his/her doctor meet face-to-face at all required visits.
E
2023-03-10
2023-02-07
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-03-10
2023-02-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-03-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
101 WALNUT STREET REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
101 WALNUT STREET REALTY LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
JSPA HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRODT, MOSHE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
DORFMAN, YAAKOV
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
GERSON, ARYEH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
GREENSPAN, ARYEH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MB HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
PATEL, SUHAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PILLER, MENDY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLOSS, DEBORAH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-24
current
pecos_ownership
SOMMERS, DOVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SVARC, JONAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
101 WALNUT STREET REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-05-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
101 WALNUT STREET REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NEPTUNE GARDENS PROPCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NEPTUNE GARDENS PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-04-30
hcris_a_8_1
MENDY PILLER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOSHE BRODT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YAAKOV DORFMAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARYEH GERSON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
19%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONAH SVARC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARYEH GREENSPAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOVID SOMMERS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUHAS PATEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,353,689
—
—
—
$45,368
10
propco
2023-12-31
$2,001,391
$1,114,211
—
—
$45,368
10
propco
2022-12-31
$1,608,284
$1,063,726
—
—
—
11
propco
2021-12-31
$778,088
$556,658
—
—
—
11
propco
2021-04-30
$433,620
$285,005
$68,668
—
$23,865
4
propco
2020-12-31
$1,365,980
$1,007,613
$154,856
—
$60,326
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2021-05-01
—
JERSEY SHORE POST ACUTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34025
acs median gross
0
$1,439
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
0
$1,676
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
1
$1,497
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
1
$1,889
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
2
$2,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
2
$2,328
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
3
$2,485
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
3
$3,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
4
$2,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
4
$3,371
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
5
$2,261
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
acs median gross
$1,827
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
acs recent mover gross
$2,294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07753
acs median gross
0
$1,293
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07753
acs median gross
1
$1,160
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07753
acs median gross
2
$2,366
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07753
acs median gross
3
$2,362
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07753
acs median gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07753
acs recent mover gross
$2,294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07753
payment standard 110
0
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 90
0
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
safmr
0
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 110
1
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 90
1
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
safmr
1
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 110
2
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 90
2
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
safmr
2
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 110
3
$3,421
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 90
3
$2,799
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
safmr
3
$3,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 110
4
$3,795
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
payment standard 90
4
$3,105
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07753
safmr
4
$3,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.