Composite
66.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 68.1 | 57.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.72 | in index |
| staffing risk | 76.6 | 76.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 14.73 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 62.2 | 53.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.35 | in index |
| billing conduct | 28.0 | 30.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 6.46 | in index |
| chow risk | 29.5 | 28.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 3.40 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 30.7 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 31.6 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 57.8 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 53.8 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 76.6 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 64.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 44.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 53.0 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 61.5 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 53.6 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 53.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 76.6 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 76.6 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 10.16 | -0.86 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.91 | -0.61 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.74 | +0.39 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.21 | +0.23 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.74 | -0.97 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.91 | -0.67 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.29 | -0.16 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | NC median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.87 | 3.08 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.64 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.96 | 3.14 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 96.3 | 2.87 | 0.23 | 0.73 | 1.90 | 2.64 | 21.1% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 93.0 | 3.00 | 0.39 | 0.65 | 1.95 | 2.80 | 27.9% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 83.8 | 2.99 | 0.40 | 0.66 | 1.94 | 2.74 | 24.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 87.6 | 3.07 | 0.47 | 0.64 | 1.96 | 2.85 | 23.3% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 90.5 | 3.16 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 2.01 | 2.94 | 29.3% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 91.6 | 3.12 | 0.52 | 0.59 | 2.01 | 2.93 | 21.6% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 78.4 | 3.31 | 0.39 | 0.82 | 2.10 | 3.11 | 14.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 89.1 | 3.16 | 0.39 | 0.83 | 1.95 | 3.00 | 29.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 76.5 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 0.94 | 2.03 | 2.99 | 21.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 69.3 | 3.52 | 0.45 | 0.90 | 2.18 | 3.13 | 29.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 72.2 | 3.50 | 0.44 | 0.95 | 2.11 | 3.19 | 32.4% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 74.3 | 3.26 | 0.35 | 1.11 | 1.80 | 2.91 | 34.6% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 75.1 | 3.22 | 0.28 | 1.14 | 1.80 | 2.82 | 36.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 75.4 | 3.02 | 0.16 | 1.08 | 1.77 | 2.63 | 26.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 78.7 | 3.02 | 0.13 | 0.90 | 1.99 | 2.38 | 24.6% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 71.6 | 2.63 | 0.22 | 0.86 | 1.55 | 2.24 | 16.7% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-26 | Fine | $9,318 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-01-25 | Fine | $6,152 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | D | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-06-06 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-06-29 |
| 2024-11-26 | Health · complaint | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | G | 2024-10-04 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health · complaint | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | B | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | B | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health · complaint | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | E | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-02-21 |
| 2024-01-25 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2024-02-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0622 | Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged. | B | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0687 | Provide appropriate foot care. | E | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-08-21 |
| 2022-07-29 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | E | 2022-08-21 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCNH HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2022-12-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PINEVILLE PROPCO | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CAPITAL HOLDINGS TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-12-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DORITY, CASSANDRA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-12-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DORITY, CASSANDRA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2015-08-03 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NC RESOURCES LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-12-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NCNH J-DEK HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-12-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NCNH J-DEK LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-12-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STARLIGHT HEALTHCARE LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-12-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STERN, JACOB | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2022-12-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CASSANDRA DORITY | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2022-12-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CASSANDRA DORITY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2015-08-03 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JACOB STERN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2022-12-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| 10-26 NATIONWIDE TR | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 38% | 2022-12-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-06-01 | — | PINEVILLE HEALTHCARE LLC | PINEVILLE REHABILITATION AND LIVING | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | Juniper Gardens Center for Nursing and Rehabilitat | — | — | — | 50 | WILKINSON BLVD OPERATING COMPANY, LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Warsaw Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | — | — | — | 100 | WARSAW OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Walnut Cove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 511 WINDMILL STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Wilora Lake Healthcare | — | — | — | 70 | 6001 WILORA LAKE ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Clay County Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 86 VALLEY HIDEAWAY DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Emerald Ridge Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 25 REYNOLDS MOUNTAIN BOULEVARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Willowbrook Rehabilitation and Care | — | — | — | 76 | 333 EAST LEE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Westwood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 68 | 625 ASHLAND STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Hibriten Mountain Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 100 | 2030 HARPER AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Forrest Oakes Healthcare | — | — | — | 60 | 620 HEATHWOOD DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Cardinal Healthcare and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 63 | 931 NORTH ASPEN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Valley View Care and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 76 | 551 KENT STREET OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 37119 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,489 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37119 | fmr | 0 | $1,469 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37119 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,457 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37119 | fmr | 1 | $1,538 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37119 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,621 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37119 | fmr | 2 | $1,686 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37119 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,792 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37119 | fmr | 3 | $2,076 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37119 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,139 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37119 | fmr | 4 | $2,637 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 37119 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,796 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 37119 | acs median gross | $1,627 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 37119 | acs recent mover gross | $1,783 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 28134 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,565 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28134 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,592 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28134 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,093 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28134 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,621 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 28134 | acs median gross | $1,706 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 28134 | acs recent mover gross | $1,891 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,815 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | safmr | 0 | $1,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,892 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,548 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | safmr | 1 | $1,720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,079 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,701 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | safmr | 2 | $1,890 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,563 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,097 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | safmr | 3 | $2,330 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,256 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,664 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 28134 | safmr | 4 | $2,960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |