Reads as: riskier than 71.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.9 vs natl
DES 2009 GST TRUST
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
BARUCH DAVID
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.1 vs natl
DES HOLDING CO INC
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.0 vs natl
CARE ONE MANAGEMENT LLC
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.8 vs natl
STRAUS DANIEL
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
CARE ONE LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
DES C 2009 GRAT
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.82
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.73
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.86
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
107.8
2.82
0.23
0.88
1.71
2.73
0.0%
2025Q3
92
100.1
3.12
0.23
0.93
1.96
3.04
5.0%
2025Q2
91
93.9
3.11
0.27
0.95
1.89
2.97
8.3%
2025Q1
90
94.7
2.78
0.26
0.92
1.59
2.62
3.3%
2024Q4
92
94.2
2.67
0.24
1.02
1.41
2.62
0.0%
2024Q3
92
99.1
3.00
0.53
1.01
1.46
2.78
0.0%
2024Q2
91
95.8
3.10
0.56
0.99
1.55
2.88
4.6%
2024Q1
91
108.5
2.88
0.57
0.86
1.44
2.70
7.8%
2023Q4
92
102.2
3.05
0.61
0.89
1.55
2.93
3.6%
2023Q3
92
106.9
3.00
0.59
0.91
1.49
2.83
0.8%
2023Q2
91
110.7
3.06
0.62
0.90
1.54
2.82
0.4%
2023Q1
90
105.8
3.30
0.59
1.04
1.67
3.08
3.7%
2022Q4
92
99.0
3.51
0.62
1.10
1.79
3.28
10.4%
2022Q3
92
98.4
3.79
0.58
1.27
1.94
3.58
16.4%
2022Q2
91
90.9
3.92
0.70
1.20
2.01
3.70
18.3%
2022Q1
90
100.6
3.94
0.78
1.14
2.02
3.68
21.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
D × 10E × 1F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-26
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-26
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-26
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-26
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-07-31
2025-06-26
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
F
2025-07-31
2025-06-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-07-31
2025-06-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-07-31
2023-12-01
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2023-12-30
2023-12-01
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-12-30
2023-12-01
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-12-30
2021-08-04
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2021-08-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARE ONE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2002-02-04
current
pecos_ownership
DES HOLDING CO., INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2007-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
DES-C 2009 GRAT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2009-10-26
current
pecos_ownership
BARUCH, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARE ONE MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
DES 2009 GST TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-02-04
current
pecos_ownership
STRAUS, DANIEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2009-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DANIEL STRAUS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2009-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BARUCH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,075,061
—
—
$-5,138
—
4
—
2023-12-31
$1,841,368
—
—
$184,831
—
4
—
2022-12-31
$1,716,503
—
—
$180,912
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$1,680,181
—
—
$138,575
$29,338
3
—
2020-12-31
$1,667,062
—
—
$234,462
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34023
acs median gross
0
$1,564
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34023
fmr
0
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34023
acs median gross
1
$1,614
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34023
fmr
1
$1,978
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34023
acs median gross
2
$2,068
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34023
fmr
2
$2,486
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34023
acs median gross
3
$2,202
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34023
fmr
3
$2,981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34023
acs median gross
4
$2,586
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34023
fmr
4
$3,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34023
acs median gross
5
$2,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34023
acs median gross
$1,871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34023
acs recent mover gross
$2,226
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08816
acs median gross
1
$1,648
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08816
acs median gross
2
$2,489
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08816
acs median gross
3
$2,750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08816
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08816
acs median gross
$2,044
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 08816
acs recent mover gross
$2,449
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 08816
payment standard 110
0
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 90
0
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
safmr
0
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 110
1
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 90
1
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
safmr
1
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 110
2
$3,036
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 90
2
$2,484
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
safmr
2
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 110
3
$3,641
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 90
3
$2,979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
safmr
3
$3,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 110
4
$4,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
payment standard 90
4
$3,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 08816
safmr
4
$3,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.