Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,851–6,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6851	Sarah Ann Hester Memorial Home	0.9%	59.4	A	NE	Benkelman	56	—
6852	TUNKHANNOCK REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.4	A	PA	Tunkhannock	52	—
6853	UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS HEALTH AND LIVING COMMUNITY	0.9%	59.4	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	176	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
6854	Corewell Health Rehab & Nursing Center-Commons Far	0.9%	59.4	D	MI	Farmington Hills	179	—
6855	Majestic Care of Lakin	0.9%	59.4	D	WV	WEST COLUMBIA	136	—
6856	VALLEY MANOR CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.4	B	CO	MONTROSE	101	VOLUNTEERS OF AMERICA NATIONAL SERVICES
6857	HELIA HEALTHCARE OF BELLEVILLE	0.9%	59.4	D	IL	BELLEVILLE	120	—
6858	RIVERVIEW VILLAGE	0.9%	59.4	B	IN	CLARKSVILLE	130	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6859	Correctionville Specialty Care	0.9%	59.4	C	IA	Correctionville	39	CARE INITIATIVES
6860	Little Sisters Of The Poor	0.9%	59.4	B	MN	SAINT PAUL	73	—
6861	MOORELAND HERITAGE MANOR	0.9%	59.4	B	OK	MOORELAND	62	—
6862	SILVER STATE PEDIATRIC SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.9%	59.3	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	36	—
6863	Mechanicsville Specialty Care	0.9%	59.3	A	IA	Mechanicsville	39	CARE INITIATIVES
6864	RIVIERA HEALTH RESORT	0.9%	59.3	A	FL	CORAL GABLES	223	—
6865	SADIE G. MAYS HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	59.3	B	GA	ATLANTA	206	—
6866	LAFON NURSING FACILITY OF THE HOLY FAMILY	0.9%	59.3	C	LA	NEW ORLEANS	155	—
6867	Penacook Place, Inc	0.9%	59.3	C	MA	HAVERHILL	160	COVENANT HEALTH
6868	MILLER HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.3	C	IL	KANKAKEE	160	—
6869	VISTA PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.9%	59.3	B	GA	DOUGLAS	168	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6870	ST LOUIS ALTENHEIM	0.9%	59.3	A	MO	SAINT LOUIS	73	—
6871	GUNNISON VALLEY HEALTH SENIOR CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.3	C	CO	GUNNISON	50	COUNTY OF GUNNISON
6872	ADVANCED CARE CENTER OF BUTLER	0.9%	59.3	D	PA	BUTLER	29	—
6873	MAYFLOWER GARDENS CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.9%	59.3	D	CA	LANCASTER	48	—
6874	MOUNTAIN VIEW HEALTHCARE	0.9%	59.3	B	MO	MOUNTAIN VIEW	105	WILLOW HEALTH CARE INC
6875	SHERMAN OAKS HOSPITAL SNF DP	0.9%	59.3	A	CA	SHERMAN OAKS	22	PRIME HEALTHCARE FOUNDATION INC
6876	OASIS AT AUSTIN	0.9%	59.3	D	TX	AUSTIN	120	—
6877	HOUSE OF THE GOOD SHEPHERD	0.9%	59.3	F	NJ	HACKETTSTOWN	62	—
6878	DOUGLAS POST-ACUTE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	59.3	F	TN	MILAN	72	—
6879	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY TYNDALL	0.9%	59.3	B	SD	TYNDALL	68	SANFORD
6880	COLLINGTON EPISCOPAL LIFE CARE	0.9%	59.3	D	MD	MITCHELLVILLE	44	—
6881	BENEFIS SENIOR SERVICES - GRANDVIEW	0.9%	59.3	A	MT	GREAT FALLS	48	BENEFIS HEALTH SYSTEM INC
6882	WEST HILLS HEALTH AND REHAB	0.9%	59.3	B	TN	KNOXVILLE	194	HILLCREST HEALTHCARE COMMUNITIES INC
6883	TERRACES AT PEACHTREE HILLS PLACE, THE	0.9%	59.3	B	GA	ATLANTA	25	ISAKSON LIVING INC
6884	ARKANSAS VETERANS HOME AT FAYETTEVILLE	0.9%	59.3	B	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	90	—
6885	Live Oak	0.9%	59.3	B	LA	Shreveport	160	—
6886	CAPITOL LAKES HEALTH CENTER	0.9%	59.3	B	WI	MADISON	49	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
6887	WOOD DALE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.9%	59.3	C	GA	DALTON	82	—
6888	FLEET LANDING	0.9%	59.3	A	FL	ATLANTIC BEACH	100	POLARIS ENDEAVORS INC
6889	MORAVIAN VILLAGE OF BETHLEHEM	0.9%	59.1	B	PA	BETHLEHEM	93	—
6890	EISENBERG VILLAGE	0.9%	59.1	A	CA	RESEDA	166	LOS ANGELES JEWISH HOME FOR THE AGING
6891	Arthur Home, The	0.9%	59.1	B	IL	ARTHUR	53	—
6892	MERCY MANOR TRANSITION CENTER	0.9%	59.1	B	WI	JANESVILLE	28	MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION
6893	HARRY AND JEANETTE WEINBERG CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.1	B	HI	KANEOHE	44	SANFORD
6894	MOORE FEW CARE CENTER	0.9%	59.1	D	MO	NEVADA	108	CHOICE REHABILITATION LLC
6895	VILLA LORETTO NURSING HOME	0.9%	59.1	F	WI	MOUNT CALVARY	50	—
6896	Signature Healthcare at U of L Mary & Elizabeth Hospital	0.9%	59.1	D	KY	Louisville	20	—
6897	RICHLAND CARE CENTER INC	0.9%	59.1	A	MO	RICHLAND	86	—
6898	WESTMINSTER BALDWIN PARK	0.9%	59.1	B	FL	ORLANDO	40	—
6899	DEFIANCE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.9%	59.1	F	OH	DEFIANCE	80	—
6900	Independence Rehab and Nursing	0.9%	59.1	F	PA	PHILADELPHIA	255	—

Showing 6,851–6,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.