2653 LAKE BALDWIN LANE, ORLANDO, FL 32814 · CCN 106118
Composite
39.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
40
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 39.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LEHMAN GARY
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.95
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.34
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.12
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.89
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
17.8
3.95
1.34
0.04
2.57
4.12
2.4%
2025Q3
92
18.3
3.79
1.25
0.05
2.50
3.77
2.4%
2025Q2
91
19.1
4.02
1.28
0.00
2.75
3.87
0.0%
2025Q1
90
18.7
3.84
1.31
0.02
2.51
3.77
0.4%
2024Q4
92
17.7
3.85
1.26
0.01
2.58
3.85
0.3%
2024Q3
92
16.8
3.83
1.23
0.02
2.58
3.95
1.5%
2024Q2
91
17.9
4.05
1.33
0.02
2.69
3.91
3.0%
2024Q1
91
19.5
3.85
1.43
0.03
2.39
4.04
4.5%
2023Q4
92
17.5
4.18
1.61
0.02
2.55
4.21
4.8%
2023Q3
92
21.8
4.59
1.40
0.78
2.42
4.45
14.4%
2023Q2
91
29.7
3.90
1.29
0.41
2.20
3.58
20.1%
2023Q1
90
31.5
4.10
1.20
0.34
2.56
4.21
15.8%
2022Q4
92
34.2
4.08
1.12
0.34
2.61
4.41
9.8%
2022Q3
92
35.4
4.29
1.33
0.32
2.64
4.47
12.2%
2022Q2
91
36.8
4.14
1.06
0.45
2.63
4.14
18.7%
2022Q1
90
36.4
4.07
0.95
0.50
2.62
4.01
8.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
D × 7E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-22
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-02-24
2026-01-22
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-02-24
2026-01-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-24
2024-12-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-01-02
2023-07-20
Health
F0635
Provide doctor's orders for the resident's immediate care at the time the resident was admitted.
D
2023-08-24
2023-07-20
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-08-24
2023-07-20
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
E
2023-08-24
2023-07-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-08-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
35
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2014-10-29
current
pecos_ownership
DEBEVOISE, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DODDRIDGE, DONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DYE, STEPHEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1997-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EARLY, MARY ELLEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HENNIS, GARRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
HILLENMEYER, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HULL, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEITH, HENRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1992-09-23
current
pecos_ownership
KUTAC, KRISTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEHMAN, GARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEHMAN, GARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
MADDUX, CARLEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOCK, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMSEY, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELLEY, LINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
YELKEN, JUSTIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
YELKEN, JUSTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN HILLENMEYER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARLEN MADDUX
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD DODDRIDGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARRY HENNIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-09-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY LEHMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY LEHMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HENRY KEITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1992-09-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY MOCK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN DEBEVOISE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN RAMSEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUSTIN YELKEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUSTIN YELKEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTIN KUTAC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA SHELLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY ELLEN EARLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN DYE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1997-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM HULL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-03-31
$1,039,806
—
$562,075
—
—
5
—
2024-03-31
$973,233
—
$471,067
—
—
5
—
2023-03-31
$1,607,936
—
$604,710
—
—
5
—
2022-03-31
$1,642,271
—
$662,321
—
—
5
—
2021-03-31
$1,343,832
—
$489,372
—
—
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12095
acs median gross
0
$1,575
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
0
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
1
$1,549
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
1
$1,731
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
2
$1,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
2
$1,972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
3
$2,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
3
$2,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
4
$2,341
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
fmr
4
$2,924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12095
acs median gross
5
$2,841
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
acs median gross
$1,775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12095
acs recent mover gross
$1,956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32814
acs median gross
0
$1,749
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32814
acs median gross
1
$2,055
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32814
acs median gross
2
$2,488
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32814
acs median gross
3
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32814
acs median gross
$2,361
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32814
acs recent mover gross
$2,475
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32814
payment standard 110
0
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 90
0
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
safmr
0
$2,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 110
1
$2,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 90
1
$2,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
safmr
1
$2,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 110
2
$3,025
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 90
2
$2,475
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
safmr
2
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 110
3
$3,795
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 90
3
$3,105
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
safmr
3
$3,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 110
4
$4,488
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
payment standard 90
4
$3,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32814
safmr
4
$4,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.