Composite
14.9 / 100 percentile
Screener / 265892
A
ST LOUIS ALTENHEIM
snfMO
5408 SOUTH BROADWAY, SAINT LOUIS, MO 63111 · CCN 265892
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
73
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 14.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model2Components6CHOW radar1Distress radar1Penalties1Deficiencies21Licensure0Ownership8Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent34
Composite explanation
2| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 49.4 | 38.5 | 0.30 | 0.6667 | 32.93 | in index |
| chow risk | 0.5 | 15.0 | 0.15 | 0.3333 | 0.17 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
6| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 15.0 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 38.5 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| regulatory risk | 38.3 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 38.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.9%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
59.3
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -3.61 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +2.02 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
0.0
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -7.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +3.15 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +1.35 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 10.00 | -0.43 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Penalties
1| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-28 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
Total fines on record: $0
Deficiencies
21C × 1D × 11E × 8J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-10-10 | Health | F0925 | Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests. | D | 2025-11-23 |
| 2025-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0551 | Give the resident's representative the ability to exercise the resident's rights. | D | 2025-07-12 |
| 2025-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-05-30 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health · complaint | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health · complaint | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | E | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health · complaint | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health · complaint | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-10-19 | Health · complaint | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-09-26 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | J | 2023-10-12 |
| 2023-07-28 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-07-28 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
8| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BARDWELL, JEAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FORVIS MAZARS LLP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FORVIS MAZARS LLP | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-08-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HABIBULLAH, AYAAZ | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HABIBULLAH, AYAAZ | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MALIK ST LOUIS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MALIK, OMER | DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2025-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MALIK, SHAFIQ | DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2025-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — MO snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29510 | acs median gross | 0 | $894 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29510 | fmr | 0 | $955 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29510 | acs median gross | 1 | $880 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29510 | fmr | 1 | $995 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29510 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,143 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29510 | fmr | 2 | $1,218 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29510 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,218 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29510 | fmr | 3 | $1,568 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29510 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,255 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29510 | fmr | 4 | $1,812 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29510 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,143 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29510 | acs median gross | $997 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29510 | acs recent mover gross | $1,173 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63111 | acs median gross | 0 | $839 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63111 | acs median gross | 1 | $787 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63111 | acs median gross | 2 | $964 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63111 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,467 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63111 | acs median gross | $888 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63111 | acs recent mover gross | $997 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $847 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | safmr | 0 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $720 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | safmr | 1 | $800 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | safmr | 2 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,397 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,143 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | safmr | 3 | $1,270 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,628 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63111 | safmr | 4 | $1,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.