Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,251–5,300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5251	Avir at Burkburnett	0.3%	65.8	C	TX	BURKBURNETT	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5252	Arlington Pointe Care Center	0.3%	65.8	A	OH	MIDDLETOWN	107	—
5253	Rennes Health and Rehab Center-East	0.3%	65.8	A	WI	Peshtigo	50	—
5254	ARBOR LAKE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	65.8	A	AL	AUBURN	87	—
5255	THE CENTER AT CORDERA	0.3%	65.8	C	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	80	—
5256	PELICAN POINTE POST ACUTE NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.8	B	NJ	NORTH CAPE MAY	120	—
5257	Sudbury Pines Extended Care	0.3%	65.2	A	MA	SUDBURY	92	—
5258	CHAPEL RIDGE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.3%	65.2	B	AR	FORT SMITH	74	—
5259	THE PHOENIX REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.2	A	NY	BROOKLYN	400	—
5260	TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE AUTUMN GROVE CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	C	PA	HARRISVILLE	103	—
5261	Cottage Grove Place	0.3%	65.2	B	IA	Cedar Rapids	64	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
5262	Overbrook Landing Health and Rehabiliation	0.3%	65.2	—	OH	XENIA	83	—
5263	Veterans Home Of California - Redding	0.3%	65.2	B	CA	REDDING	60	DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
5264	OTTERBEIN LEBANON RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.3%	65.2	A	OH	LEBANON	154	OTTERBEIN HOME
5265	RAWLINS HOUSE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.3%	65.2	C	IN	PENDLETON	110	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
5266	RIVIERE DE SOLEIL COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	LA	MANSURA	130	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
5267	CORONA HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	C	CA	CORONA	99	—
5268	Good Samaritan - Indianola	0.3%	65.2	F	IA	Indianola	105	SANFORD
5269	COMPASS PARK	0.3%	65.2	A	IN	FRANKLIN	167	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5270	KELLER OAKS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	TX	KELLER	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5271	BURNS NURSING HOME, INC.	0.3%	65.2	A	AL	RUSSELLVILLE	57	—
5272	THE RIVERSIDE	0.3%	65.2	A	NY	NEW YORK	520	—
5273	GREEN ACRES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.2	A	GA	MILLEDGEVILLE	98	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5274	LEGACY AT HERINGTON	0.3%	65.2	A	KS	HERINGTON	45	CAMPBELL STREET SERVICES LLC
5275	RIVERSIDE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.2	A	GA	THOMASTON	73	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5276	LAS ALTURAS DE PENITAS	0.3%	65.2	D	TX	PENITAS	0	VAL VERDE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5277	COPPER TRACE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.3%	65.2	C	IN	WESTFIELD	104	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
5278	GREENSVILLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	VA	EMPORIA	65	—
5279	BENEDICTINE LIVING COMMUNITY OWATONNA	0.3%	65.2	A	MN	OWATONNA	79	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
5280	PAYSON CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	C	AZ	PAYSON	163	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
5281	Ignite Medical Resort Batavia	0.3%	65.2	—	IL	BATAVIA	96	—
5282	Sodus Rehabilitation & Nursing Center	0.3%	65.2	A	NY	Sodus	130	—
5283	NORTH SHORE - L I J ORZAC CTR FOR REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.2	C	NY	VALLEY STREAM	120	NORTHWELL HEALTHCARE INC
5284	VANCREST OF PAYNE	0.3%	65.2	A	OH	PAYNE	40	—
5285	St Luke Lutheran Nursing Home	0.3%	65.2	C	IA	Spencer	79	—
5286	Oakview Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.3%	65.2	A	IA	Burlington	60	THE VIEWS HOLDINGS LLC
5287	AMELIA REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	VA	AMELIA	100	—
5288	RIVERBEND OF SOUTH NATICK	0.3%	65.2	B	MA	S NATICK	55	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
5289	HOLMES COUNTY LONG TERM CARE CENTER - DURANT	0.3%	65.2	A	MS	DURANT	80	—
5290	WESTCHESTER CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & NURSING	0.3%	65.2	B	NY	MOUNT VERNON	240	—
5291	APPLE REHAB WATERTOWN	0.3%	65.2	B	CT	WATERTOWN	110	—
5292	GREENBRIER NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	AR	GREENBRIER	90	—
5293	TRINITY TRACE COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.2	B	LA	COVINGTON	116	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
5294	Collierville Nursing And Rehabilitation, Llc	0.3%	65.2	B	TN	COLLIERVILLE	114	—
5295	MEADVILLE CONVALESCENT HOME	0.3%	65.2	A	MS	MEADVILLE	60	—
5296	DAWSON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.2	C	GA	DAWSON	60	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5297	BRIARWOOD COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	0.3%	65.2	A	TN	LEXINGTON	55	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
5298	STEVENS PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.2	A	GA	AUGUSTA	42	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5299	Sapulpa Nursing Center	0.3%	65.2	—	OK	SAPULPA	85	—
5300	CARLIN SPRINGS HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.2	A	VA	ARLINGTON	161	SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST

Showing 5,251–5,300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.