Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,401–4,450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4401	OLD JEFFERSON COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.3	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	136	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
4402	AUTUMN LEAVES NURSING AND REHAB INC	0.4%	71.3	D	TX	HENDERSON	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4403	ELIM WELLSPRING HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.3	A	MN	PRINCETON	86	CASSIA
4404	DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.3	B	NY	BROOKLYN	320	—
4405	Corewell Health Reed City Hospital Rehabilitation	0.4%	71.3	A	MI	Reed City	39	COREWELL HEALTH
4406	OTTERBEIN-CRIDERSVILLE	0.4%	71.1	A	OH	CRIDERSVILLE	50	OTTERBEIN HOME
4407	MITCHELL'S NURSING HOME, INC	0.4%	71.1	B	AR	DANVILLE	105	—
4408	Southbridge Rehabilitation & Health Care Center	0.4%	71.1	B	MA	SOUTHBRIDGE	144	—
4409	Briarwood Healthcare Center	0.4%	71.1	A	IA	Iowa City	62	—
4410	MANHATTANVILLE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.1	B	NY	BRONX	200	—
4411	Baptist Village of Oklahoma City	0.4%	71.1	B	OK	Oklahoma City	120	BAPTIST VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES OF OKLAHOMA INC
4412	BAY POINTE NURSING PAVILION	0.4%	71.1	D	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	120	—
4413	PARADIGM AT BAY CITY	0.4%	71.1	B	TX	BAY CITY	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
4414	WRIGHTS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.1	C	FL	SEMINOLE	60	—
4415	Maple Manor Care Center	0.4%	71.1	B	ND	LANGDON	45	—
4416	MS CARE CENTER OF RALEIGH	0.4%	71.1	A	MS	RALEIGH	110	—
4417	ARCHBOLD LIVING CAMILLA	0.4%	71.1	B	GA	CAMILLA	156	JOHN D ARCHBOLD MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC
4418	Savoy Care Center	0.4%	71.1	C	LA	Mamou	119	—
4419	Rock Rest Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.4%	71.1	B	NC	Monroe	60	—
4420	Walworth County Care Center, Inc	0.4%	71.1	A	SD	SELBY	50	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
4421	Armenian Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	71.1	A	MA	BOSTON	83	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
4422	CONROE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.1	B	TX	CONROE	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4423	COUNTRY ARCH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.1	C	NJ	PITTSTOWN	130	—
4424	The Gardens Of Cedar Rapids	0.4%	71.1	A	IA	Cedar Rapids	40	—
4425	Mcmahon-Tomlinson Nursing Center	0.4%	71.1	C	OK	Lawton	142	COMANCHE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
4426	Jordan Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.4%	71.1	B	KY	Louisa	104	—
4427	Westhaven Nursing Home	0.4%	71.1	C	OK	Stillwater	125	HEALTH SYSTEMS OF OKLAHOMA LLC
4428	AUBURN REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.4%	71.1	A	NY	AUBURN	92	—
4429	HARRIS HEALTH AND REHAB	0.4%	71.1	B	AR	OSCEOLA	91	—
4430	Kershaw Health Karesh Long Term Care	0.4%	71.1	C	SC	Camden	132	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
4431	SOLARIS SENIOR LIVING NORTH NAPLES	0.4%	71.1	B	FL	NAPLES	60	SOLARIS FOUNDATION INC
4432	GURWIN JEWISH NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.1	A	NY	COMMACK	460	GURWIN HEALTHCARE SYSTEM INC
4433	LECOM At Village Square, Llc	0.4%	71.1	C	PA	ERIE	110	MILLCREEK HEALTH SYSTEM
4434	RECTOR NURSING AND REHAB	0.4%	71.1	D	AR	RECTOR	70	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4435	DARDANELLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER,INC	0.4%	71.1	D	AR	DARDANELLE	110	—
4436	BETHEL LUTHERAN HOME	0.4%	71.1	A	CA	SELMA	59	—
4437	CLIFFORD CHESTER SIMS STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.4%	71.1	A	FL	PANAMA CITY	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
4438	DELTA GRANDE SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.1	B	LA	MONROE	74	—
4439	Rocky Mountain Care - Cottage on Vine	0.4%	71.1	D	UT	Murray	61	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
4440	STONEBRIDGE ADAMS STREET	0.4%	71.1	D	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	120	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
4441	OAKWOOD VILLAGE EAST HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	71.1	C	WI	MADISON	40	OAKWOOD LUTHERAN SENIOR MINISTRIES INC
4442	UPMC MAGEE-WOMENS HOSPITAL TCU	0.4%	71.1	A	PA	PITTSBURGH	20	UPMC
4443	PREMIER GENESEE CENTER FOR NRSG AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.1	A	NY	BATAVIA	160	—
4444	BAYBERRY NURSING HOME	0.4%	71.1	A	NY	NEW ROCHELLE	60	—
4445	Glenaire	0.4%	71.1	A	NC	Cary	71	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES INC
4446	Mill Valley Care Center	0.4%	70.7	A	IA	Bellevue	46	—
4447	ASBURY HEALTH CENTER	0.4%	70.7	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	139	OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
4448	Little Falls Care Center	0.4%	70.7	C	MN	LITTLE FALLS	64	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
4449	TORRANCE MEMORIAL MED CTR SNF/DP	0.4%	70.7	B	CA	TORRANCE	40	CEDARS SINAI HEALTH SYSTEM
4450	CEDARS OF LEBANON CARE CENTER	0.4%	70.7	A	OH	LEBANON	45	—

Showing 4,401–4,450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.