Reads as: riskier than 60.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.87
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.69
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.65
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.95
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
124.3
3.87
0.69
0.76
2.41
3.65
0.0%
2025Q3
92
124.9
3.90
0.67
0.82
2.41
3.60
0.0%
2025Q2
91
125.4
3.95
0.65
0.82
2.47
3.70
0.0%
2025Q1
90
124.6
3.97
0.75
0.77
2.45
3.73
0.0%
2024Q4
92
126.5
3.96
0.70
0.73
2.53
3.70
0.0%
2024Q3
92
125.7
3.97
0.72
0.73
2.52
3.71
0.2%
2024Q2
91
127.9
3.74
0.70
0.66
2.39
3.52
0.6%
2024Q1
91
124.9
3.75
0.70
0.72
2.33
3.59
1.0%
2023Q4
92
119.8
3.80
0.64
0.83
2.33
3.63
2.7%
2023Q3
92
104.4
4.12
0.76
0.79
2.58
3.82
0.6%
2023Q2
91
93.8
4.11
0.80
0.73
2.58
3.79
0.0%
2023Q1
90
81.6
4.68
0.79
1.00
2.89
4.16
0.0%
2022Q4
92
83.0
4.06
0.67
0.96
2.42
3.69
0.0%
2022Q3
92
81.0
3.89
0.65
0.91
2.33
3.53
0.0%
2022Q2
91
82.4
3.94
0.60
0.91
2.43
3.56
0.0%
2022Q1
90
82.7
4.01
0.42
1.05
2.54
3.64
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-10-11
2025-07-21
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
J
—
2024-07-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-19
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
E
2024-08-15
2023-09-25
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2023-09-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
35
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BARNETTE, BRAXTON W
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOLAND, ERIC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
current
pecos_ownership
CARLYLE SENIOR CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARLYLE SENIOR CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
CRANFORD, RICHARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUNTER, ERIC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
current
pecos_ownership
HARRELL, SARAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
JAY, TENESA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEARSE, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
KEARSE, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KERSHAWHEALTH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
KERSHAWHEALTH
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
LONG, WALTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, NAPOLEON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
current
pecos_ownership
NEAL, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
OGBURN, DERIAL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHMOYER AND COMPANY LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHMOYER AND COMPANY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
SCOTT, LEO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST, SHANNON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, DONNIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DERIAL OGBURN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNIE WILSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC GUNTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERNEST WITHERSPOON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-08-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERSHAWHEALTH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-08-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEO SCOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL NEAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAPOLEON MOORE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH HARRELL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON WEST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TENESA JAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WALTER LONG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45055
acs median gross
0
$808
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45055
fmr
0
$844
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45055
acs median gross
1
$692
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45055
fmr
1
$849
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45055
acs median gross
2
$922
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45055
fmr
2
$1,009
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45055
acs median gross
3
$954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45055
fmr
3
$1,214
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45055
acs median gross
4
$1,232
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45055
fmr
4
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45055
acs median gross
5
$1,160
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45055
acs median gross
$971
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45055
acs recent mover gross
$1,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29020
acs median gross
1
$691
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29020
acs median gross
2
$1,036
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29020
acs median gross
3
$853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29020
acs median gross
4
$1,342
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29020
acs median gross
$928
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29020
acs recent mover gross
$1,373
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29020
payment standard 110
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 90
0
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
safmr
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 110
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 90
1
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
safmr
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 110
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 90
3
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
safmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 110
4
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
payment standard 90
4
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29020
safmr
4
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.