Reads as: riskier than 93.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
TRUIST BANK
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
THE PROVIDENCE GROUPS LLC
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
62 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.80
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.11
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.63
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.87
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
123.7
2.80
0.11
1.01
1.69
2.63
22.0%
2025Q3
92
125.0
2.84
0.25
0.88
1.71
2.70
28.7%
2025Q2
91
123.7
2.70
0.26
0.79
1.65
2.51
30.0%
2025Q1
90
124.7
2.65
0.24
0.87
1.54
2.35
15.7%
2024Q4
92
117.4
2.60
0.30
0.80
1.50
2.26
11.2%
2024Q3
92
110.2
2.89
0.45
0.78
1.67
2.56
18.0%
2024Q2
91
103.7
3.15
0.52
0.91
1.72
2.76
20.2%
2024Q1
91
114.3
2.96
0.56
0.74
1.67
2.63
17.1%
2023Q4
92
110.6
2.99
0.64
0.68
1.67
2.72
0.0%
2023Q3
92
104.4
3.13
0.31
0.82
2.00
3.05
14.4%
2023Q2
91
106.8
3.11
0.30
0.79
2.02
3.05
16.9%
2023Q1
90
111.8
2.93
0.29
0.80
1.84
2.79
20.0%
2022Q4
92
110.3
2.75
0.32
0.71
1.72
2.59
11.1%
2022Q3
92
114.6
2.63
0.35
0.64
1.64
2.46
13.2%
2022Q2
91
102.7
2.64
0.42
0.61
1.61
2.45
28.3%
2022Q1
90
107.5
2.36
0.37
0.60
1.40
2.02
31.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-05-23
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-03-08
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-03-08
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-03-08
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-03-08
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-04-09
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
F
2024-03-08
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-03-08
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-08
2024-02-15
Health · complaint
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
F
2024-03-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-08-09
current
pecos_ownership
SC MASTER TENANT, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-08-09
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAWS, CADEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
HAWS, CADEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-23
current
pecos_ownership
HUNT, LEON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
HUNT, LEON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-09
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NICKERSON, LATASHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-09
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-09
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
TRUIST BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2023-12-07
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-08-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-08-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2023-08-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2023-08-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CADEN HAWS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CADEN HAWS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LATASHA NICKERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEON HUNT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEON HUNT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$700,863
—
$700,863
—
—
1
—
2024-01-08
$167,919
—
$167,919
—
—
2
—
2023-05-31
$502,380
—
$502,380
—
—
2
—
2022-05-31
$468,301
—
$468,301
—
—
2
—
2021-05-31
$413,755
—
$413,755
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2024-01-09
—
FOREST ACRES COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE, LLC
COLUMBIA REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER-COLUMBIA SC LLC
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45079
acs median gross
0
$1,038
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45079
fmr
0
$1,032
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45079
acs median gross
1
$1,111
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45079
fmr
1
$1,164
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45079
acs median gross
2
$1,169
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45079
fmr
2
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45079
acs median gross
3
$1,404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45079
fmr
3
$1,623
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45079
acs median gross
4
$1,629
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45079
fmr
4
$1,911
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45079
acs median gross
5
$2,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45079
acs median gross
$1,228
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45079
acs recent mover gross
$1,317
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29204
acs median gross
0
$341
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29204
acs median gross
1
$864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29204
acs median gross
2
$1,068
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29204
acs median gross
3
$1,129
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29204
acs median gross
4
$818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29204
acs median gross
$1,031
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29204
acs recent mover gross
$1,237
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29204
payment standard 110
0
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 90
0
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
safmr
0
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 110
1
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 90
1
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
safmr
1
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 110
2
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 90
2
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
safmr
2
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 110
3
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 90
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
safmr
3
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 110
4
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
payment standard 90
4
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29204
safmr
4
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.