Reads as: riskier than 74.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
TRUIST BANK
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
62 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.87
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.08
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.66
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.94
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
115.0
2.87
0.08
1.05
1.73
2.66
13.1%
2025Q3
92
116.9
2.89
0.24
0.92
1.73
2.71
12.8%
2025Q2
91
114.0
2.67
0.12
0.98
1.57
2.40
1.0%
2025Q1
90
113.5
2.86
0.13
1.08
1.65
2.60
8.7%
2024Q4
92
113.2
2.87
0.22
0.99
1.65
2.61
4.0%
2024Q3
92
109.8
2.97
0.17
1.06
1.74
2.72
6.3%
2024Q2
91
97.5
3.10
0.14
1.14
1.81
2.77
0.0%
2023Q4
92
92.8
3.86
0.00
1.34
2.52
3.43
0.0%
2023Q3
92
96.4
3.92
0.06
1.27
2.58
3.44
0.0%
2023Q2
91
97.5
3.62
0.09
1.23
2.30
3.19
0.0%
2023Q1
90
97.3
3.65
0.14
1.33
2.18
3.22
0.0%
2022Q4
92
87.0
3.29
0.10
1.13
2.06
2.80
0.2%
2022Q3
92
83.7
2.91
0.20
1.00
1.72
2.53
0.0%
2022Q2
91
84.4
2.73
0.20
0.98
1.55
2.28
0.0%
2022Q1
90
85.0
2.88
0.11
1.07
1.70
2.54
3.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.
D
2026-02-17
2026-01-13
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2026-02-17
2026-01-13
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-02-17
2026-01-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-02-17
2026-01-13
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-02-17
2026-01-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2026-03-26
2026-01-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-02-17
2026-01-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-17
2025-06-24
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-07-18
2025-03-10
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-10
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-04-04
2024-11-05
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-12-02
2024-11-05
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-12-02
2024-11-05
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
J
2024-12-02
2024-11-05
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
F
2024-12-02
2024-11-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-12-02
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-07-10
2024-06-14
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-07-10
2022-10-07
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2022-10-28
2022-10-07
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
E
2022-10-28
2022-10-07
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-10-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ARTS, JEFF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
ARTS, JEFF
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-16
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIZER, MELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
KIZER, MELISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-18
current
pecos_ownership
ORANGEBURG SC PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRUIST BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, VANNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
35%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFF ARTS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFF ARTS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA KIZER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA KIZER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VANNA WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45075
acs median gross
0
$739
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45075
fmr
0
$709
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45075
acs median gross
1
$628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45075
fmr
1
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45075
acs median gross
2
$890
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45075
fmr
2
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45075
acs median gross
3
$875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45075
fmr
3
$1,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45075
acs median gross
4
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45075
fmr
4
$1,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45075
acs median gross
$841
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45075
acs recent mover gross
$684
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29115
acs median gross
0
$762
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29115
acs median gross
1
$671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29115
acs median gross
2
$872
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29115
acs median gross
3
$840
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29115
acs median gross
4
$797
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29115
acs median gross
$826
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29115
acs recent mover gross
$990
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29115
payment standard 110
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 90
0
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
safmr
0
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 110
1
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 90
1
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
safmr
1
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 110
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 90
2
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
safmr
2
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 110
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 90
3
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
safmr
3
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 110
4
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
payment standard 90
4
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29115
safmr
4
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.