Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,151–4,200

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4151	CROWN POINT HEALTH SUITES	0.4%	72.9	B	TX	LUBBOCK	0	FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
4152	Ivy Creek Wellness & Rehabilitation	0.4%	72.9	F	TX	WACO	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
4153	BARNES HEALTHCARE	0.4%	72.9	B	AR	LONOKE	141	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
4154	GRANT REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.9	A	WV	PETERSBURG	110	—
4155	CLAIBORNE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	72.9	A	TN	TAZEWELL	100	COVENANT HEALTH
4156	AYERS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	72.9	B	FL	TRENTON	120	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
4157	St. Agnes Healthcare and Rehab Center	0.4%	72.9	A	LA	Breaux Bridge	128	—
4158	CLARIDGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	72.9	F	IL	LAKE BLUFF	231	—
4159	SOUTHMONT OF PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE	0.4%	72.9	B	PA	WASHINGTON	147	PRESBYTERIAN SENIORCARE
4160	St. Francisville Nursing and Rehab, LLC	0.4%	72.9	B	LA	SAINT FRANCISVILLE	128	—
4161	LAKE MINNETONKA SHORES	0.4%	72.9	A	MN	SPRING PARK	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
4162	CAPSTONE HEALTHCARE OF PERRYTON	0.4%	72.9	A	TX	PERRYTON	60	MME CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC
4163	HICKORY CREEK AT COLUMBUS	0.4%	72.9	A	IN	COLUMBUS	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4164	A.G. RHODES HOME, INC - COBB	0.4%	72.9	A	GA	MARIETTA	130	UNIDINE CORPORATION
4165	WINDSOR QUAIL VALLEY POST-ACUTE HEALTHCARE	0.4%	72.9	C	TX	MISSOURI CITY	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4166	SOUTH ELGIN LIVING & REHAB CENTER	0.4%	72.9	B	IL	SOUTH ELGIN	90	DOMMFT II LLC
4167	HELEN HAYES HOSPITAL T C U	0.4%	72.9	C	NY	WEST HAVERSTRAW	24	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
4168	Idaho State Veterans Home - Pocatello	0.4%	72.9	A	ID	Pocatello	66	DIVISION OF VETERANS SERVICES
4169	VILLAGES AT OAK RIDGE, THE	0.4%	72.9	C	IN	WASHINGTON	58	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
4170	BAYLOR SCOTT & WHITE CONTINUING CARE HOSPITAL SKIL	0.4%	72.6	A	TX	TEMPLE	23	SCOTT & WHITE HEALTHCARE
4171	APPLE REHAB MYSTIC	0.4%	72.6	D	CT	MYSTIC	60	—
4172	LAKE RIDGE CARE CENTER OF BUFFALO, INC.	0.4%	72.6	A	MN	BUFFALO	56	CASSIA
4173	Adira Medical Resort	0.4%	72.6	C	LA	Bossier City	77	AIRLINE DRIVE BOSSIER LLC
4174	GREENE MEADOWS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	72.6	A	NY	CATSKILL	120	—
4175	Sylvan Court	0.4%	72.6	C	MN	CANBY	53	SANFORD
4176	BOURNE MANOR EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	0.4%	72.6	B	MA	BOURNE	142	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
4177	KANSAS SOLDIERS HOME	0.4%	72.6	A	KS	FORT DODGE	56	—
4178	INTEGRITY HC OF HERRIN	0.4%	72.6	C	IL	HERRIN	49	—
4179	Wellington Rehabilitation and Healthcare	0.4%	72.6	C	TX	Temple	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4180	BETHANY ON UNIVERSITY	0.4%	72.6	A	ND	FARGO	172	BLUE STONE THERAPY INC
4181	Bardstown Health & Rehabilitation	0.4%	72.6	A	KY	Bardstown	100	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
4182	Rock River Nursing & Rehab	0.4%	72.6	D	WI	FORT ATKINSON	87	BEDROCK HC WI LLC
4183	ENCORE VILLAGE	0.4%	72.6	B	IL	SCHAUMBURG	169	—
4184	EASTPORT MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	0.4%	72.6	A	ME	EASTPORT	26	—
4185	COLLEGE VISTA POST-ACUTE	0.4%	72.6	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	49	—
4186	RANCH HOUSE SENIOR LIVING LLC	0.4%	72.6	C	KS	GARDEN CITY	60	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
4187	HOUGHTON REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.4%	72.6	C	NY	HOUGHTON	100	—
4188	WOODBRIDGE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.4%	72.6	B	IN	LOGANSPORT	69	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
4189	Ingham County Medical Care Facility	0.4%	72.6	C	MI	Okemos	236	—
4190	SEYMOUR CROSSING	0.4%	72.6	B	IN	SEYMOUR	115	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4191	Franciscan Health Center	0.4%	72.6	A	MN	DULUTH	47	—
4192	PIH HEALTH GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.4%	72.6	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	28	PIH HEALTH WHITTIER HOSPITAL
4193	SOUTHERN SPRINGS HEALTHCARE FACILITY	0.4%	72.6	A	AL	UNION SPRINGS	123	—
4194	GENEVA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.4%	72.6	D	OH	GENEVA	80	—
4195	Zumbrota Care Center	0.4%	72.6	C	MN	ZUMBROTA	40	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
4196	OTTERBEIN PORTAGE VALLEY	0.4%	72.6	B	OH	PEMBERVILLE	50	OTTERBEIN HOME
4197	JEFFERSON CITY MANOR CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.6	C	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	102	—
4198	LECOM AT SNYDER MEMORIAL	0.4%	72.6	B	PA	MARIENVILLE	100	—
4199	Lyon Specialty Care	0.4%	72.6	A	IA	Rock Rapids	45	CARE INITIATIVES
4200	West Wind Village	0.4%	72.6	A	MN	MORRIS	45	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC

Showing 4,151–4,200 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.