Reads as: riskier than 4.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
EIDE BAILLY LLP
24 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
ND median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.59
3.90
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.78
0.59
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.39
3.55
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.67
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
163.9
4.59
0.78
0.55
3.25
4.39
5.0%
2025Q3
92
166.7
4.47
0.75
0.55
3.17
4.23
2.3%
2025Q2
91
164.3
4.66
0.75
0.60
3.31
4.37
2.1%
2025Q1
90
166.5
4.51
0.64
0.70
3.17
4.35
2.8%
2024Q4
92
167.0
4.41
0.59
0.69
3.13
4.28
3.2%
2024Q3
92
167.7
4.36
0.62
0.63
3.11
4.18
3.5%
2024Q2
91
165.2
4.70
0.64
0.66
3.40
4.39
3.6%
2024Q1
91
167.4
4.44
0.60
0.64
3.20
4.24
3.8%
2023Q4
92
167.7
4.44
0.52
0.70
3.22
4.22
4.0%
2023Q3
92
167.6
4.51
0.45
0.71
3.35
4.16
3.2%
2023Q2
91
166.1
4.68
0.50
0.75
3.42
4.29
1.7%
2023Q1
90
167.9
4.52
0.44
0.83
3.25
4.19
1.7%
2022Q4
92
168.8
4.43
0.37
0.85
3.20
4.08
3.8%
2022Q3
92
168.4
4.60
0.40
0.85
3.36
4.18
4.4%
2022Q2
91
168.3
4.57
0.35
0.89
3.33
4.18
10.9%
2022Q1
90
166.4
4.45
0.33
0.91
3.21
4.28
14.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 9G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-12
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2026-03-17
2026-02-12
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2026-03-17
2026-02-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-17
2025-06-04
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-07-07
2025-01-29
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-03-05
2024-10-24
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-11-13
2023-10-26
Health
F0563
Honor the resident's right to receive visitors of his or her choosing, at the time of his or her choosing.
G
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-11-20
2023-10-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-11-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
37
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AMERICAN LUTHERAN HOMES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1990-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, CHERYL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
ANGUS, KAYE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BELL BANK ARROWHEAD OFFICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1996-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BELL BANK ARROWHEAD OFFICE
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2013-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BETHANY HOMES, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
BETHANY HOMES, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
BLUE STONE THERAPY INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLUE STONE THERAPY INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
BRANTNER-ADAMS, JERILYNN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIDSON, BRUCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
EIDE BAILLY LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
EIDE BAILLY LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1998-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUPTA, PARUL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERTSGAARD, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-09
current
pecos_ownership
NESS OWENS, LAURA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-09
current
pecos_ownership
OLSON, ROGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
RENNER, BETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
ROCKSTAD, LIANNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-09
current
pecos_ownership
RYDELL, JACK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
STEEN, RICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-09
current
pecos_ownership
STUHAUG, SHAWN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2007-04-09
current
pecos_ownership
WENDT, JOSEPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
BETH RENNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2023-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRUCE DAVIDSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERYL ANDERSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2023-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACK RYDELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JERILYNN BRANTNER-ADAMS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2023-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN HERTSGAARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH WENDT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAYE ANGUS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA NESS OWENS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIANNE ROCKSTAD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICK STEEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROGER OLSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAWN STUHAUG
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2007-04-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PARUL GUPTA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 38017
acs median gross
0
$702
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 38017
fmr
0
$768
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 38017
acs median gross
1
$838
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 38017
fmr
1
$917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 38017
acs median gross
2
$976
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 38017
fmr
2
$1,112
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 38017
acs median gross
3
$1,449
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 38017
fmr
3
$1,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 38017
acs median gross
4
$1,860
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 38017
fmr
4
$1,865
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 38017
acs median gross
5
$2,064
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 38017
acs median gross
$958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 38017
acs recent mover gross
$1,023
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 58103
acs median gross
0
$636
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 58103
acs median gross
1
$785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 58103
acs median gross
2
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 58103
acs median gross
3
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 58103
acs median gross
4
$1,699
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 58103
acs median gross
5
$1,703
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 58103
acs median gross
$857
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 58103
acs recent mover gross
$889
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 58103
payment standard 110
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 90
0
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
safmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 110
1
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 90
1
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
safmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 110
2
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 90
2
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
safmr
2
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 110
3
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 90
3
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
safmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 110
4
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
payment standard 90
4
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 58103
safmr
4
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.