Reads as: riskier than 11.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
SMITH KIMBERLY
9 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
EIDE BAILLY LLP
24 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.49
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.40
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.26
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.58
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
42.1
3.49
0.40
0.78
2.32
3.26
0.6%
2025Q3
92
39.8
3.63
0.48
0.81
2.33
3.31
0.8%
2025Q2
91
41.0
3.68
0.44
0.89
2.35
3.30
0.0%
2025Q1
90
43.6
3.32
0.45
0.78
2.09
3.07
0.5%
2024Q4
92
42.8
3.25
0.54
0.71
2.00
2.94
1.5%
2024Q3
92
42.3
3.38
0.61
0.71
2.06
3.01
6.3%
2024Q2
91
45.2
3.49
0.63
0.80
2.06
3.14
4.4%
2024Q1
91
48.0
3.51
0.69
0.81
2.01
3.25
7.0%
2023Q4
92
48.5
2.95
0.76
0.03
2.16
2.79
0.3%
2023Q3
92
49.5
3.45
0.77
0.61
2.06
3.19
1.0%
2023Q2
91
56.8
3.73
0.79
0.55
2.39
3.31
1.3%
2023Q1
90
59.6
3.48
0.83
0.51
2.15
3.18
2.2%
2022Q4
92
60.9
3.44
0.60
0.63
2.20
3.23
3.5%
2022Q3
92
61.6
3.62
0.55
0.56
2.51
3.37
6.4%
2022Q2
91
57.7
3.69
0.63
0.59
2.47
3.45
2.6%
2022Q1
90
59.2
3.51
0.64
0.51
2.36
3.23
0.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
D × 5F × 2G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-05-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
—
2025-07-30
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-08-26
2025-07-30
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
G
2025-08-26
2025-07-30
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-08-26
2024-05-01
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-05-27
2024-05-01
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-05-27
2024-05-01
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2024-05-27
2024-05-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-05-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
63
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BACH, CURTIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
BAKKE, CHRISTINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
BIG STONE THERAPIES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
BIG STONE THERAPIES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
BLACK, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
BURROWS, AMANDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
CASPERS, MEGAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-12-29
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIANSON, HALEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
DRIPPS, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EHLERS, DOUGLAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EIDE BAILLY LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
EIDE BAILLY LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
GOODNOUGH, JENNIFER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOODNOUGH, JENNIFER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRAMM, TIMOTHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANNEKEN, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-20
current
pecos_ownership
HEJHAL, ROXANNE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-10
current
pecos_ownership
HOFMANN, REED
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, TODD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAIR, MICHAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIEN, SHANNON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-10-28
current
pecos_ownership
LIENEMANN, STEVEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUETMER, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUETMER, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARLOW, JINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
MECKLENBURG, JENNY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
MOSER, KATHRYN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, PATRICK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON-DEVRIES, CAMI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
PUCHALSKI, SHANNON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-10
current
pecos_ownership
RAW, CAROL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
RENTZ, LAURA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RENTZ, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-22
current
pecos_ownership
RENTZ, PAUL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RYAN, BEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-12-27
current
pecos_ownership
SCHIELE, JOYCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-11-19
current
pecos_ownership
SCHNEIDER, TODD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, KIMBERLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-03-09
current
pecos_ownership
SOMMERS, ADAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ST. FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-12-26
current
pecos_ownership
ST. FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
STOCK, KELSEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, RENEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-10-10
current
pecos_ownership
TOMOSON, APRIL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
WALKER, AMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
WIESE, LORRAINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-07-25
current
pecos_ownership
WIESE, LORRAINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAMILLA PETERSON-DEVRIES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROL RAW
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2007-12-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL DRIPPS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS EHLERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER GOODNOUGH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER SEALES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN RELCOSKY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN LUETMER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORRAINE WIESE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARI CHAMBERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK NELSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL LETENDRE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL RENTZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERRY WAGNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD SCHNEIDER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOMOTHY GRAMM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$348,999
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-09-30
$367,203
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-09-30
$377,442
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-09-30
$350,388
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-09-30
$304,600
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27149
fmr
0
$683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27149
acs median gross
1
$616
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27149
fmr
1
$755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27149
acs median gross
2
$922
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27149
fmr
2
$991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27149
acs median gross
3
$1,167
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27149
fmr
3
$1,378
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27149
acs median gross
4
$1,938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27149
fmr
4
$1,662
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27149
acs median gross
5
$1,330
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27149
acs median gross
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27149
acs recent mover gross
$1,023
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56267
acs median gross
1
$613
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56267
acs median gross
2
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56267
acs median gross
3
$1,161
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56267
acs median gross
4
$2,114
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56267
acs median gross
5
$1,329
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56267
acs median gross
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56267
acs recent mover gross
$971
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 56267
payment standard 110
0
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 90
0
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
safmr
0
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 110
1
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 90
1
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
safmr
1
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 110
2
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 90
2
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
safmr
2
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 110
3
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 90
3
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
safmr
3
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 110
4
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
payment standard 90
4
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56267
safmr
4
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.