Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,051–4,100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4051	Halcyon House	0.4%	73.5	A	IA	Washington	54	WESLEYLIFE
4052	MAJESTIC CARE OF SHERIDAN	0.4%	73.5	A	IN	SHERIDAN	80	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
4053	Whitestone a Masonic and Eastern Star Community	0.4%	73.5	B	NC	Greensboro	60	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
4054	Monument Healthcare Stonecreek	0.4%	73.5	C	UT	Bountiful	122	HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
4055	BORDERVIEW REHAB & LIVING CTR	0.4%	73.5	A	ME	VAN BUREN	27	—
4056	SANFIELD REHAB & LIVING CENTER	0.4%	73.5	A	ME	HARTLAND	23	—
4057	ROLLING HILLS CARE CENTER	0.4%	73.5	C	NJ	LEBANON	67	—
4058	Lynwood Manor Healthcare Center	0.4%	73.5	C	MI	Adrian	84	—
4059	Colonial Manor of Amana	0.4%	73.5	A	IA	Amana	50	—
4060	Manawa Com Nur CTR	0.4%	73.5	A	WI	Manawa	25	—
4061	Redlands Comm Hosp D/p Snf	0.4%	73.5	A	CA	Redlands	16	REDLANDS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL
4062	Resolve Harmony Center, LLC	0.4%	73.5	C	AZ	PHOENIX	115	—
4063	MOUNTAIN VIEW HEALTH CARE	0.4%	73.5	D	GA	CLAYTON	117	R DAVIS HOLDINGS INC
4064	Pine Creek Manor Skilled Nursing & Rehab Center	0.4%	73.5	B	MI	Wayne	49	—
4065	ROSE MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER	0.4%	73.5	C	NJ	NEW BRUNSWICK	112	—
4066	S.P.J.S.T. REST HOME 3	0.4%	73.5	A	TX	EL CAMPO	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
4067	CRYSTAL CARE CENTER OF MANSFIE	0.4%	73.5	A	OH	MANSFIELD	74	—
4068	Abbeville Crossing of Journey LLC	0.4%	73.5	D	GA	ABBEVILLE	101	SELECTIS HEALTH INC
4069	ELIZABETH CHURCH MANOR NURSING HOME	0.4%	73.5	C	NY	BINGHAMTON	120	—
4070	Rennes Health and Rehab Center-West	0.4%	73.5	B	WI	Peshtigo	90	—
4071	Pawtucket Falls Healthcare Center	0.4%	73.5	D	RI	Pawtucket	154	—
4072	THE BUCKINGHAM	0.4%	73.5	C	TX	HOUSTON	0	GREYSTONE MANAGEMENT SERVICES COMPANY LLC
4073	WINDSOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF WESLA	0.4%	73.5	D	TX	WESLACO	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4074	Arbor Manor Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.4%	73.5	B	MI	Spring Arbor	122	—
4075	BARTOW CENTER	0.4%	73.5	C	FL	BARTOW	120	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
4076	BUFFALO VALLEY LUTHERAN VILLAG	0.4%	73.5	C	PA	LEWISBURG	102	—
4077	Continuous Care Center Wheeling Hospital	0.4%	73.5	A	WV	WHEELING	144	WEST VIRGINIA UNITED HEALTH SYSTEM INC
4078	COMPLETE CARE AT COURT HOUSE, LLC	0.4%	73.5	B	NJ	CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE	120	—
4079	CONCOURSE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER INC	0.4%	73.5	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
4080	SPRING LAKE VILLAGE	0.4%	73.2	A	CA	SANTA ROSA	70	FRONT PORCH COMMUNITIES AND SERVICES
4081	COLER REHABILITATION AND NURSING CARE CENTER	0.4%	73.2	B	NY	ROOSEVELT ISLAND	815	NEW YORK CITY HEALTH AND HOSPITALS CORPORATION
4082	ST MARY OF THE WOODS	0.4%	73.2	A	OH	AVON	50	SAINT THERESE
4083	Medical Park West Rehabilitation & Skilled Care	0.4%	73.2	F	OK	Norman	104	STONEGATE SENIOR LIVING LP
4084	OLIVIA RESTORATIVE CARE CENTER	0.4%	73.2	B	MN	OLIVIA	60	—
4085	EISENBERG VILLAGE	0.4%	73.2	A	CA	RESEDA	166	LOS ANGELES JEWISH HOME FOR THE AGING
4086	LUTHERAN LIFE VILLAGES	0.4%	73.2	B	IN	KENDALLVILLE	99	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
4087	ELIZABETH NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	73.2	A	NJ	ELIZABETH	102	—
4088	Aftenro Home	0.4%	73.2	C	MN	DULUTH	54	—
4089	HENDRIX HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	73.2	A	AL	DOUBLE SPRINGS	110	—
4090	ST OLAF RESIDENCE	0.4%	73.2	—	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	5	—
4091	THE HEALTH CENTER AT RICHLAND PLACE	0.4%	73.2	B	TN	NASHVILLE	107	NHC OP LP
4092	LEGACY AT TOWN CREEK	0.4%	73.2	D	TX	PALESTINE	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
4093	JASPER COUNTY NH	0.4%	73.2	A	MS	BAY SPRINGS	110	—
4094	ST DOMINIC VILLA	0.4%	73.2	C	WI	HAZEL GREEN	62	ILLUMINUS INC
4095	EAST LONGMEADOW SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.4%	73.2	B	MA	EAST LONGMEADOW	131	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
4096	THE GARDENS	0.4%	73.2	C	OK	SAPULPA	107	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
4097	Crestwood Wellness and Recovery Center	0.4%	73.2	B	CA	REDDING	99	—
4098	UNIVERSITY VILLAGE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.4%	73.2	A	OK	TULSA	80	—
4099	CAROLTON CHRONIC & CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL INC	0.4%	73.2	C	CT	FAIRFIELD	170	—
4100	WESTLAKE CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.4%	73.2	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	114	—

Showing 4,051–4,100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.