Composite
73.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 74.3 | 70.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.15 | in index |
| billing conduct | 52.6 | 40.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.14 | in index |
| financial risk | 52.3 | 46.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.07 | in index |
| staffing risk | 56.9 | 56.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 10.94 | in index |
| chow risk | 43.5 | 41.7 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.02 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 40.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 58.4 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 46.9 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 70.3 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 56.9 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 82.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 62.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 56.1 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 50.0 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 70.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 70.1 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 56.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 56.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.83 | -0.39 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.83 | -0.36 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.18 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.34 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.92 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.28 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 70.0 | 3.18 | 0.34 | 0.80 | 2.04 | 2.92 | 5.8% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 69.3 | 3.15 | 0.27 | 0.79 | 2.09 | 2.97 | 5.4% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 68.6 | 3.16 | 0.30 | 0.76 | 2.10 | 2.97 | 5.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 68.1 | 3.08 | 0.28 | 0.78 | 2.02 | 2.99 | 8.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 67.8 | 3.11 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 2.05 | 2.89 | 5.5% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 66.5 | 3.35 | 0.25 | 0.89 | 2.21 | 3.17 | 14.7% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 68.5 | 3.32 | 0.18 | 0.92 | 2.21 | 3.12 | 17.6% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 73.1 | 3.33 | 0.17 | 0.93 | 2.23 | 3.14 | 22.8% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 74.7 | 3.43 | 0.22 | 0.94 | 2.27 | 3.30 | 29.3% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 75.4 | 3.25 | 0.21 | 0.88 | 2.17 | 3.07 | 23.8% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 71.0 | 3.12 | 0.13 | 0.91 | 2.08 | 2.89 | 12.2% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 67.4 | 3.18 | 0.24 | 0.82 | 2.12 | 3.10 | 15.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 60.7 | 3.16 | 0.23 | 0.89 | 2.04 | 3.06 | 19.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 64.9 | 3.17 | 0.25 | 0.97 | 1.95 | 2.94 | 23.1% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 64.3 | 2.99 | 0.18 | 0.98 | 1.83 | 2.80 | 27.5% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 64.2 | 2.82 | 0.19 | 1.01 | 1.62 | 2.68 | 21.6% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-12 | Fine | $23,761 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-02-03 |
| 2025-06-04 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-06-04 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-06-04 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-06-04 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-06-04 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-06-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-06-30 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0806 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options. | D | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-07-12 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-02-15 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-15 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-15 | Health · complaint | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | F | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-17 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2023-05-26 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRG LYNWOOD HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2011-06-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LEV, DANIEL | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 87% | 2022-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRG LYNWOOD REA | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CRG LYNWOOD REA | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| WEISS, KIMBERLEE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2020-10-23 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DANIEL LEV | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 87% | 2022-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY KAGAN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 13% | 2012-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CRG LYNWOOD REA | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CRG LYNWOOD REA | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CRG LYNWOOD REA | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | — | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| KIMBERLEE WEISS | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2020-10-23 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26091 | acs median gross | 0 | $627 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26091 | fmr | 0 | $804 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26091 | acs median gross | 1 | $805 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26091 | fmr | 1 | $889 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26091 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,034 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26091 | fmr | 2 | $1,166 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26091 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,168 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26091 | fmr | 3 | $1,491 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26091 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,110 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26091 | fmr | 4 | $1,622 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26091 | acs median gross | 5 | $871 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26091 | acs median gross | $987 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26091 | acs recent mover gross | $1,084 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49221 | acs median gross | 1 | $850 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49221 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,069 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49221 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,176 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49221 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,009 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49221 | acs median gross | 5 | $869 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 49221 | acs median gross | $992 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 49221 | acs recent mover gross | $1,106 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $902 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $738 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | safmr | 0 | $820 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,001 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $819 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | safmr | 1 | $910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,309 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,071 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | safmr | 2 | $1,190 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,368 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | safmr | 3 | $1,520 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,826 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,494 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 49221 | safmr | 4 | $1,660 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |