Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,251–2,300

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2251	Lagniappe Healthcare	4.4%	86.7	A	LA	Bastrop	112	DELTA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2252	FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE OF SOUTH HI	4.4%	86.6	B	PA	PITTSBURGH	89	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
2253	St. Joseph Villa Nursing Center	4.4%	86.6	C	NE	Omaha	184	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
2254	BAYOU CHATEAU NURSING CTR	4.4%	86.6	A	LA	SIMMESPORT	104	—
2255	CITADEL POST ACUTE	4.4%	86.6	A	AZ	MESA	128	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2256	MEADOWS OF KALIDA	4.4%	86.6	C	OH	KALIDA	62	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2257	PLAZA WEST	4.4%	86.6	A	FL	SUN CITY CENTER	113	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2258	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF MUNCIE	4.4%	86.6	D	IN	MUNCIE	140	ASBR HOLDINGS LLC
2259	APERION CARE INTERNATIONAL	4.4%	86.6	C	IL	CHICAGO	218	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
2260	FOUNTAINVIEW CARE CENTER	4.4%	86.6	D	NJ	LAKEWOOD	123	EZ CARE
2261	HILLTOP MANOR NURSING CENTER	4.4%	86.6	B	KS	CUNNINGHAM	45	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
2262	LYNNWOOD POST ACUTE REHABILITATION CENTER	4.4%	86.6	B	WA	LYNNWOOD	67	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2263	Alta Heights Post Acute	4.4%	86.6	A	TN	GOODLETTSVILLE	90	AHP ORCHARDS LLC
2264	RAVENSWOOD VILLAGE	4.4%	86.6	A	WV	RAVENSWOOD	62	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2265	SYMPHONY MAPLE CREST	4.4%	86.6	D	IL	BELVIDERE	86	DRAKE LOUIS ENTERPRISE LLC
2266	SUMMERFORD HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	4.4%	86.6	B	AL	FALKVILLE	216	—
2267	APERION CARE GREENFIELD	4.4%	86.6	B	IN	GREENFIELD	60	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
2268	ALDEN DES PLAINES REHAB & HC	4.4%	86.6	D	IL	DES PLAINES	110	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2269	Autumn Care of Raeford	4.4%	86.5	B	NC	Raeford	132	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2270	Meadowood Nursing Center	4.4%	86.5	B	CA	CLEARLAKE	99	AJC HEALTHCARE LLC
2271	DAVIESS COUNTY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	4.4%	86.5	C	MO	GALLATIN	97	—
2272	MILAN HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.4%	86.5	C	MO	MILAN	100	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2273	LINWOOD VILLAGE NURSING & RETIREMENT APTS	4.4%	86.5	B	OK	CUSHING	67	RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
2274	CREASY SPRINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	4.4%	86.5	C	IN	LAFAYETTE	71	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
2275	Hoyt Nursing & Rehab Centre	4.4%	86.5	C	MI	Saginaw	128	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
2276	SERENITY SPRING SENIOR LIVING AT NORTHWOOD	4.4%	86.5	D	IN	JASPER	107	GREENE COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
2277	South Haven Nursing and Rehabilitation Community	4.4%	86.5	B	MI	South Haven	70	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
2278	LAKEWOOD NRSG & REHAB CENTER	4.4%	86.5	B	IL	PLAINFIELD	131	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
2279	Accura Healthcare of Sioux City, LLC	4.4%	86.5	A	IA	Sioux City	46	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2280	South Mountain Post Acute	4.4%	86.5	A	AZ	PHOENIX	124	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2281	SILVER OAKS HEALTH CAMPUS	4.4%	86.5	C	IN	COLUMBUS	80	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2282	GROVE OF LAGRANGE PARK, THE	4.4%	86.5	D	IL	LA GRANGE PARK	131	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
2283	Green Hills Health Care Center	4.4%	86.5	A	IA	Ames	56	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2284	Medilodge of Marshall	4.4%	86.5	B	MI	Marshall	98	B&Y TRUST
2285	Landmark of Lake Charles	4.4%	86.5	A	LA	LAKE CHARLES	130	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2286	CIVITA CARE NORTHBRIDGE	4.4%	86.4	D	CT	BRIDGEPORT	145	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
2287	THE LAKES	4.4%	86.4	C	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	120	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
2288	ATTALLA CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	4.4%	86.4	B	AL	ATTALLA	182	—
2289	RULEVILLE COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	4.4%	86.4	C	MS	RULEVILLE	111	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2290	SWEDEN VALLEY MANOR	4.4%	86.4	C	PA	COUDERSPORT	121	HCF INC
2291	LAURELWOOD COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	4.4%	86.4	A	MS	LAUREL	60	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
2292	TALLGRASS CREEK, INC	4.4%	86.4	A	KS	OVERLAND PARK	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
2293	PruittHealth- Moncks Corner	4.4%	86.4	C	SC	Moncks Corner	132	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2294	GARRISON MEM HOSP NSG FAC	4.4%	86.4	A	ND	GARRISON	26	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
2295	THE LAKES AT MAUMELLE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	4.4%	86.4	B	AR	MAUMELLE	70	OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
2296	Marrero Healthcare Center	4.4%	86.4	C	LA	Marrero	105	NEXION HEALTH INC
2297	Oaks, The	4.3%	86.4	B	MA	NEW BEDFORD	122	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2298	JEFFERSON MANOR NURSING AND REHAB CTR, LLC	4.3%	86.4	C	LA	BATON ROUGE	122	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2299	GENOA RETIREMENT VILLAGE	4.3%	86.4	C	OH	GENOA	68	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
2300	UNIVERSITY CARE CENTER	4.3%	86.4	A	CA	SAN DIEGO	87	PACS HOLDINGS LLC

Showing 2,251–2,300 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.