Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,051–2,100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2051	WILLOWBROOKE COURT-SOUTHAMPTON	1.1%	86.6	A	PA	SOUTHAMPTON	29	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2052	Valley Health Center	1.1%	86.6	A	MI	Grand Rapids	20	—
2053	EMERALD CARE CENTER TULSA	1.1%	86.6	F	OK	TULSA	118	—
2054	Mountain View Manor Nursing Center	1.1%	86.6	C	NC	Bryson City	120	JOHN M FAUST LIVING TRUST
2055	Divine Providence Community Home	1.1%	86.6	A	MN	SLEEPY EYE	50	—
2056	Wyoming Retirement Center	1.1%	86.6	C	WY	Basin	90	STATE OF WYOMING
2057	ST AUGUSTINE MANOR	1.1%	86.6	B	OH	CLEVELAND	220	—
2058	ROOSEVELT CARE CENTER	1.1%	86.6	D	NJ	EDISON	180	MIDDLESEX COUNTY IMPROVEMENT AUTHORITY
2059	Christian Health Center	1.1%	86.6	A	KY	Bowling Green	45	CHRISTIAN CARE COMMUNITIES INC
2060	PLEASANT VIEW NURSING HOME	1.1%	86.6	D	WI	MONROE	96	—
2061	CUMBERLAND HEALTH AND REHAB	1.1%	86.6	C	AL	BRIDGEPORT	100	THE HEALTH CARE AUTHORITY OF THE CITY OF HUNTSVILLE
2062	NORWOOD CROSSING	1.1%	86.6	B	IL	CHICAGO	131	OAKDALE SENIORS ALLIANCE LLC
2063	Mason Creek Transitional Care of Katy	1.1%	86.5	C	TX	Katy	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
2064	CURRENT RIVER NURSING CENTER, INC	1.1%	86.5	F	MO	DONIPHAN	120	—
2065	Cerenity Care Center on Humboldt	1.1%	86.5	C	MN	SAINT PAUL	93	—
2066	MUNCY PLACE	1.1%	86.5	B	PA	MUNCY	138	UPMC
2067	CENTRAL TODD COUNTY CARE CENTER	1.1%	86.5	A	MN	CLARISSA	45	—
2068	Avir at Richland Hills	1.1%	86.5	B	TX	Richland Hills	0	—
2069	Glen Arden Inc	1.1%	86.5	C	NY	GOSHEN	40	—
2070	UNITED METHODIST COMMUNITIES AT BRISTOL GLEN	1.1%	86.5	B	NJ	NEWTON	60	—
2071	VALLEY HI NURSING HOME	1.1%	86.5	B	IL	WOODSTOCK	128	—
2072	HEWITT HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	1.1%	86.5	B	CT	SHELTON	206	—
2073	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE KENTUCKIANA	1.1%	86.5	D	IN	CLARKSVILLE	94	—
2074	HOLY FAMILY HOME	1.1%	86.5	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	18	—
2075	FLORENCE NURSING HOME	1.1%	86.5	A	IL	MARENGO	56	—
2076	NORTHWELL HEALTH STERN FAMILY CENTER FOR REHAB	1.1%	86.5	B	NY	MANHASSET	256	—
2077	GARDEN SPOT VILLAGE	1.1%	86.5	A	PA	NEW HOLLAND	73	GARDEN SPOT COMMUNITIES
2078	COPPER RIDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	86.4	F	MT	BUTTE	186	EDURO HEALTHCARE LLC
2079	Perry Green Valley Nursing Center, LLC	1.1%	86.4	C	OK	Perry	112	HMLC LLC
2080	SAINT TERESA REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	1.1%	86.4	A	NH	MANCHESTER	51	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
2081	The Lev At town Park	1.1%	86.4	C	TX	Houston	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
2082	Elm Crest Retirement Community	1.1%	86.4	C	IA	Harlan	50	AMERICAN BAPTIST HOMES OF THE MIDWEST
2083	Linn Manor Care Center	1.1%	86.4	A	IA	Marion	38	—
2084	UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS HEALTH AND LIVING COMMUNITY	1.1%	86.4	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	176	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
2085	Karlstad Healthcare Center Inc	1.1%	86.4	A	MN	KARLSTAD	46	—
2086	EFFINGHAM CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.1%	86.4	A	GA	SPRINGFIELD	105	—
2087	SHERIDAN COUNTY HOSPITAL LTCU	1.1%	86.4	A	KS	HOXIE	32	—
2088	Steere House Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.1%	86.4	A	RI	Providence	120	—
2089	LITTLE BROOK NURSING AND CONVALESCENT HOME	1.1%	86.3	C	NJ	CALIFON	36	—
2090	Tripoli Nursing & Rehab	1.1%	86.3	A	IA	Tripoli	28	ECSI INC
2091	SALEM MEMORIAL DISTRICT HOSPITAL	1.1%	86.3	B	MO	SALEM	18	—
2092	BETHANY HOME SIOUX FALLS	1.1%	86.3	A	SD	SIOUX FALLS	52	AUGUSTANA LUTHERAN CHURCH
2093	GOOD SHEPHERD HOME-BETHLEHEM	1.1%	86.3	A	PA	BETHLEHEM	60	GOOD SHEPHERD REHABILITATION NETWORK
2094	WOODBURY HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.1%	86.3	C	MN	WOODBURY	155	SENIOR CARE COMMUNITIES
2095	Gainesville Convalescent Center	1.1%	86.3	F	TX	Gainesville	0	COUNTY OF THROCKMORTON
2096	Lifecare Roseau Manor	1.1%	86.3	A	MN	ROSEAU	40	—
2097	LEGACY HEALTH AND REHAB	1.1%	86.3	C	TN	MANCHESTER	72	—
2098	OZARK REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.1%	86.3	D	MO	OSAGE BEACH	60	—
2099	MANOR COURT OF CARBONDALE	1.1%	86.3	D	IL	CARBONDALE	120	—
2100	Glen Haven Village	1.1%	86.3	A	IA	Glenwood	69	—

Showing 2,051–2,100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.