Composite
87.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 81.5 | 78.3 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 24.45 | in index |
| staffing risk | 97.7 | 97.7 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 24.43 | in index |
| financial risk | 30.6 | 34.2 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 9.18 | in index |
| chow risk | 43.5 | 41.7 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 6.53 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 58.5 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 34.2 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 1.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 78.3 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 97.7 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 49.2 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 29.2 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 40.4 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 39.9 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 78.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 78.2 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 97.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 97.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.04 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.04 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.65 | -0.33 | |
| Occupancy | 0.70 | +0.18 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.04 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.07 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.02 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 42.3 | 2.04 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 1.22 | 2.07 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 41.9 | 2.05 | 0.40 | 0.37 | 1.28 | 2.10 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 40.5 | 2.29 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 1.47 | 2.28 | 0.1% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 43.8 | 2.79 | 0.32 | 0.50 | 1.97 | 2.76 | 16.8% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 42.4 | 2.68 | 0.32 | 0.59 | 1.78 | 2.59 | 27.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 40.6 | 2.65 | 0.19 | 0.55 | 1.91 | 2.78 | 26.7% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 42.7 | 2.40 | 0.20 | 0.44 | 1.75 | 2.51 | 24.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 45.5 | 1.99 | 0.07 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.05 | 3.8% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 49.3 | 1.60 | 0.07 | 0.37 | 1.16 | 1.52 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 49.1 | 1.54 | 0.11 | 0.33 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 50.0 | 1.67 | 0.20 | 0.26 | 1.21 | 1.67 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 47.2 | 1.91 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 1.38 | 1.79 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 44.4 | 2.23 | 0.20 | 0.45 | 1.59 | 1.99 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 50.0 | 1.98 | 0.16 | 0.36 | 1.46 | 1.85 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 47.2 | 2.06 | 0.25 | 0.37 | 1.44 | 1.94 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 46.6 | 1.60 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.90 | 1.56 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-06 | Fine | $8,995 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-12-15 | Fine | $14,229 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2025-06-29 |
| 2025-05-15 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-06-29 |
| 2024-11-06 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2024-12-10 |
| 2024-06-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-07-23 |
| 2024-06-10 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-07-01 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0638 | Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months. | E | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-05-24 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | F | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2024-04-19 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | F | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | F | 2024-04-14 |
| 2023-12-15 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2023-12-19 |
| 2023-12-15 | Health · complaint | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | E | 2024-01-12 |
| 2022-11-18 | Health | F0575 | Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency. | C | 2022-11-18 |
| 2022-11-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-11-25 |
| 2022-11-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2022-11-25 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LATHROP, KIMBERELY | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2014-05-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OZARK LAND | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| PETERSEN, MARK | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2003-08-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PETERSEN, MARK | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2005-09-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARK PETERSEN | CORPORATE OFFICER | 99% | 2003-08-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KIMBERELY LATHROP | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2014-05-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARK PETERSEN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2005-09-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| OZARK LAND | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| OZARK LAND | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| OZARK LAND | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29029 | acs median gross | 0 | $766 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29029 | fmr | 0 | $697 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29029 | acs median gross | 1 | $676 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29029 | fmr | 1 | $716 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29029 | acs median gross | 2 | $838 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29029 | fmr | 2 | $939 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29029 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,154 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29029 | fmr | 3 | $1,306 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29029 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,244 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29029 | fmr | 4 | $1,375 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29029 | acs median gross | $876 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29029 | acs recent mover gross | $1,218 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 65065 | acs median gross | 1 | $715 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65065 | acs median gross | 2 | $793 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65065 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,304 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65065 | acs median gross | $790 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 65065 | acs recent mover gross | $1,463 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $737 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $603 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | safmr | 0 | $670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $781 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | safmr | 1 | $710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | safmr | 2 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,364 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,116 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | safmr | 3 | $1,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,463 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,197 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65065 | safmr | 4 | $1,330 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |