Reads as: riskier than 16.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
TAEGER VINCENT
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.38
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.17
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.47
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
35.3
3.38
0.39
0.39
2.61
3.17
15.9%
2025Q3
92
35.3
2.99
0.43
0.39
2.17
2.88
11.2%
2025Q2
91
36.9
2.92
0.42
0.30
2.20
2.90
8.5%
2025Q1
90
36.3
2.98
0.47
0.30
2.21
2.82
11.2%
2024Q4
92
34.8
2.92
0.44
0.33
2.15
2.87
13.0%
2024Q3
92
34.5
2.88
0.33
0.38
2.17
2.87
14.3%
2024Q2
91
34.6
2.84
0.38
0.36
2.11
2.88
9.6%
2024Q1
91
33.1
3.14
0.50
0.41
2.24
3.03
15.2%
2023Q4
92
33.9
3.06
0.46
0.42
2.18
2.87
26.9%
2023Q3
92
33.2
3.12
0.37
0.48
2.27
3.08
9.4%
2023Q2
91
30.8
3.17
0.29
0.63
2.25
3.02
25.4%
2023Q1
90
32.0
3.14
0.30
0.65
2.19
3.01
20.0%
2022Q4
92
32.6
3.30
0.29
0.71
2.29
3.06
16.1%
2022Q3
92
31.1
3.23
0.19
0.63
2.42
3.04
9.0%
2022Q2
91
30.8
3.18
0.17
0.68
2.33
3.06
8.7%
2022Q1
90
30.0
3.12
0.41
0.53
2.18
2.92
13.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
D × 14F × 1G × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-12
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2026-03-14
2026-02-12
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-03-14
2026-02-12
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-03-14
2026-02-12
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-03-14
2026-02-12
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
D
2026-03-14
2026-02-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-14
2025-10-16
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-11-10
2025-10-16
Health · complaint
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2025-11-10
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-06-13
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-06-13
2023-11-09
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-09
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-09
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-09
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-09
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-09
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-09
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
F
2023-12-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CRAIN, MARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON, CALVIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERICKSON, CALVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
FITCH, JON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRAND HAVEN HOMES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
GRATTON, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUKENSMEYER, ANDREW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCCALLEY, CAMERON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARDSON, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
TAEGER, VINCENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-26
current
pecos_ownership
TAEGER, VINCENT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
UHLENHOPP, PAUL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
UHLENHOPP, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-03-21
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREW LUKENSMEYER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CALVIN ERICKSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2020-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAMERON MCCALLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GRATTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JON FITCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CALVIN ERICKSON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL UHLENHOPP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
17%
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY CRAIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL UHLENHOPP
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-03-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT RICHARDSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINCENT TAEGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINCENT TAEGER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19113
acs median gross
0
$749
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19113
fmr
0
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19113
acs median gross
1
$702
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19113
fmr
1
$816
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19113
acs median gross
2
$1,009
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19113
fmr
2
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19113
acs median gross
3
$1,353
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19113
fmr
3
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19113
acs median gross
4
$1,490
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19113
fmr
4
$1,797
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19113
acs median gross
5
$1,631
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19113
acs median gross
$945
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19113
acs recent mover gross
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52302
acs median gross
1
$636
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52302
acs median gross
2
$1,066
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52302
acs median gross
3
$1,445
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52302
acs median gross
4
$1,865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52302
acs median gross
$962
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52302
acs recent mover gross
$899
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 52302
payment standard 110
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 90
0
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
safmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 110
2
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 90
2
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
safmr
2
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 110
3
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 90
3
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
safmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 110
4
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
payment standard 90
4
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52302
safmr
4
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.