Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,801–1,850

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1801	Capitol House Nursing and Rehab Center	5.0%	89.3	B	LA	Baton Rouge	132	PTM 2018 FAMILY TRUST
1802	Avir at Golfcrest	5.0%	89.3	C	TX	Houston	0	BELLVILLE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1803	ALTERCARE OF MAYFIELD VILLAGE, INC	5.0%	89.3	B	OH	MAYFIELD VILLAGE	52	THE SCHROER GROUP INC
1804	THE ORCHARD - POST ACUTE CARE	5.0%	89.3	B	CA	WHITTIER	162	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1805	BLAIRE HOUSE OF TEWKSBURY	5.0%	89.3	D	MA	TEWKSBURY	131	ESSEX GROUP INCORPORATED
1806	MOUNTAIN VIEW CONV HOSP	5.0%	89.3	C	CA	SYLMAR	114	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
1807	VINEYARDS AT CONCORD, THE	5.0%	89.3	A	OH	FRANKFORT	32	—
1808	SEQUOYAH EAST NURSING CENTER, LLC	5.0%	89.3	D	OK	ROLAND	80	DELORES O MITCHELL RVOC TR
1809	BETHANY POINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	5.0%	89.3	C	IN	ANDERSON	74	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
1810	CRYSTAL CARE CENTER OF ASHLAND	5.0%	89.3	B	OH	ASHLAND	72	EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
1811	BROOKFIELD HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.0%	89.3	A	CA	DOWNEY	70	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1812	MCCOMB COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	5.0%	89.3	A	MS	MCCOMB	140	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
1813	Signature Healthcare at Summit Manor Rehab & Welln	5.0%	89.3	C	KY	Columbia	104	WHEATEN LLC
1814	Medilodge at the Shore	5.0%	89.3	C	MI	Grand Haven	126	B&Y TRUST
1815	BUENA PARK NURSING CENTER	5.0%	89.3	C	CA	BUENA PARK	143	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
1816	MONTEREY CARE CENTER	5.0%	89.3	B	OH	GROVE CITY	148	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
1817	Central Health Care Center	5.0%	89.3	B	MN	LE CENTER	40	—
1818	WOODLAND MANOR	5.0%	89.3	A	IN	ELKHART	80	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1819	Hi-Desert Medical Center D/P SNF	5.0%	89.2	A	CA	Joshua Tree	92	TENET CALIFORNIA INC
1820	APPLE REHAB SAYBROOK	5.0%	89.2	B	CT	OLD SAYBROOK	120	—
1821	LIFE CARE CENTER OF THE SOUTH SHORE	5.0%	89.2	B	MA	SCITUATE	117	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1822	COLUMBIA REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	5.0%	89.2	B	MS	COLUMBIA	119	NEXION HEALTH INC
1823	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF PRIMACY	5.0%	89.2	B	TN	MEMPHIS	120	WHEATEN LLC
1824	PIERZ VILLA INC	5.0%	89.2	A	MN	PIERZ	45	PARTNERS SENIOR LIVING OPTIONS LLC
1825	LEGACY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION OF PLEASANT GROVE	5.0%	89.2	A	AL	PLEASANT GROVE	189	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
1826	OREGON LIVING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	5.0%	89.2	C	IL	OREGON	104	MOMENTUM HEALTHCARE LLC
1827	STONEBRIDGE OAK TREE	5.0%	89.2	C	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	42	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
1828	West Side House LTC Facility	5.0%	89.2	A	MA	WORCESTER	91	ESSEX GROUP INCORPORATED
1829	NHC HEALTHCARE, MILAN	5.0%	89.2	B	TN	MILAN	117	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
1830	SACRAMENTO POST-ACUTE	5.0%	89.2	A	CA	SACRAMENTO	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1831	JEFFERSON CITY MANOR CARE CENTER	5.0%	89.2	C	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	102	—
1832	Harrodsburg Health & Rehabilitation Center	5.0%	89.2	C	KY	Harrodsburg	112	WHEATEN LLC
1833	CANAL WINCHESTER CARE CENTER	5.0%	89.2	C	OH	CANAL WINCHESTER	124	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
1834	MULBERRY HEALTH & REHABILITATION	4.9%	89.1	B	TN	FRANKLIN	157	—
1835	Holly Hill Healthcare Center	4.9%	89.1	C	MD	TOWSON	75	RRW LLC
1836	HARRAH NURSING CENTER	4.9%	89.1	A	OK	HARRAH	100	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
1837	BRENTWOOD PLACE ONE	4.9%	89.1	B	TX	DALLAS	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1838	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	4.9%	89.1	C	IN	PORTAGE	66	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1839	Coral Desert Rehabilitation and Care	4.9%	89.1	A	UT	St. George	60	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1840	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF RIDGELY REHAB&WELLNESS CTR	4.9%	89.1	C	TN	RIDGELY	100	WHEATEN LLC
1841	Benbrook Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	4.9%	89.1	C	TX	Benbrook	0	—
1842	Van Duyn Center For Rehabilitation And Nursing	4.9%	89.1	D	NY	SYRACUSE	513	—
1843	LOPATCONG CENTER	4.9%	89.1	C	NJ	PHILLIPSBURG	153	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1844	Salem Lutheran Home	4.9%	89.0	D	IA	Elk Horn	64	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
1845	TWIN PINES HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.9%	89.0	B	PA	WEST GROVE	119	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1846	Gallatin Nursing and Rehab	4.9%	89.0	B	KY	Warsaw	120	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1847	GRAND COVE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.9%	89.0	B	LA	LAKE CHARLES	109	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
1848	Croatan Ridge Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.9%	89.0	B	NC	Newport	64	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
1849	HARMONEE HOUSE	4.9%	89.0	A	TX	AMHERST	35	—
1850	BEEBE RETIREMENT CENTER, INC.	4.9%	89.0	B	AR	BEEBE	105	RHC OPERATIONS INC

Showing 1,801–1,850 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.