Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

1,851–1,900

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1851	LESLIE LAKES RETIREMENT CENTER	4.9%	89.0	C	LA	ARCADIA	150	DCZ HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
1852	GREAT OAKS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.9%	89.0	C	MS	BYHALIA	60	NEXION HEALTH INC
1853	LAUREL HILL NURSING CENTER	4.9%	89.0	B	OR	GRANTS PASS	44	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
1854	OAK MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER INC	4.9%	89.0	B	AR	BOONEVILLE	120	—
1855	Life Care Center of Morehead	4.9%	89.0	B	KY	Morehead	97	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
1856	PRUITTHEALTH - SHEPHERD HILLS	4.9%	89.0	A	GA	LA FAYETTE	112	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1857	CANTERBURY CENTER	4.9%	89.0	B	WV	SHEPHERDSTOWN	62	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1858	DUNBAR HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	4.9%	89.0	A	OH	DAYTON	68	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1859	Heritage Manor South	4.9%	89.0	A	LA	SHREVEPORT	145	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
1860	FORREST MANOR NURSING CENTER	4.9%	89.0	B	OK	DEWEY	116	—
1861	PRUITTHEALTH - WASHINGTON	4.9%	89.0	A	GA	WASHINGTON	47	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1862	PRUITTHEALTH - EASTSIDE	4.9%	89.0	A	GA	MACON	90	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1863	HERITAGE HOUSE OF MARSHALL HEALTH & REHABILITATION	4.9%	89.0	D	TX	MARSHALL	0	—
1864	River City Post Acute	4.9%	89.0	B	CA	CARMICHAEL	178	9560 PICO LLC
1865	Kerr Lake Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.9%	89.0	B	NC	Henderson	92	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
1866	PICKETT CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.9%	88.9	B	TN	BYRDSTOWN	69	WHEATEN LLC
1867	AVANTARA LONG GROVE	4.9%	88.9	C	IL	LONG GROVE	195	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
1868	Savannah Heights	4.9%	88.9	B	IA	Mount Pleasant	50	ECSI INC
1869	AdviniaCare Waterview Villas, LLC	4.9%	88.9	C	RI	East Providence	132	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
1870	STERLING PARK HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.9%	88.9	B	MN	WAITE PARK	40	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1871	Signature Healthcare of Bowling Green	4.9%	88.9	C	KY	Bowling Green	176	WHEATEN LLC
1872	SHERMAN VILLAGE HCC	4.9%	88.9	B	CA	NORTH HOLLYWOOD	108	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
1873	PRUITTHEALTH - LANIER	4.9%	88.9	B	GA	BUFORD	117	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1874	ROSEWOOD CENTER	4.9%	88.9	B	WV	GRAFTON	69	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1875	AVIATA AT THE HARBOR	4.9%	88.9	B	FL	SAFETY HARBOR	120	—
1876	Grandview Center	4.9%	88.9	C	RI	Cumberland	72	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1877	CRESTWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC	4.9%	88.9	C	MO	FLORISSANT	150	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
1878	TITUSVILLE REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	4.9%	88.9	F	FL	TITUSVILLE	157	—
1879	HUNTINGTON DRIVE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.9%	88.9	C	CA	ARCADIA	99	WIN WIN ENTERPRISES LLC
1880	CRYSTAL REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.9%	88.9	B	MS	GREENWOOD	100	NEXION HEALTH INC
1881	VILLA AT BLUE RIDGE, THE	4.9%	88.9	C	MO	COLUMBIA	97	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1882	AVANTE AT LAKE WORTH, INC.	4.9%	88.9	D	FL	LAKE WORTH	138	AG HOLDINGS INC
1883	WHITESTONE CARE CENTER	4.9%	88.9	F	PA	STROUDSBURG	90	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1884	Freeman Nursing & Rehabilitation Community	4.9%	88.9	C	MI	Kingsford	39	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
1885	WEST SIDE CAMPUS OF CARE	4.9%	88.8	D	TX	WHITE SETTLEMENT	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
1886	Walnut Ridge	4.9%	88.8	A	IA	Clive	60	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
1887	WELLINGTON HEALTH AND REHAB	4.9%	88.8	A	KS	WELLINGTON	44	BARRES LLC
1888	The Laurels of Sandy Creek	4.9%	88.8	D	MI	Wayland	99	CIENA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
1889	ROCK CANYON RESPIRATORY AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.9%	88.8	C	CO	PUEBLO	151	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
1890	FOUR SEASONS HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTER, LP	4.9%	88.8	C	CA	NORTH HOLLYWOOD	201	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
1891	WESTERN SLOPE HEALTH CENTER	4.9%	88.8	C	CA	PLACERVILLE	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1892	GRAND RIVER HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	4.8%	88.8	A	OH	PAINESVILLE	80	BNV DYNASTY LLC
1893	PRUITTHEALTH - GRANDVIEW	4.8%	88.8	A	GA	ATHENS	72	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
1894	BERKSHIRE REHABILITATION & SKILLED CARE CENTER	4.8%	88.8	C	MA	SANDISFIELD	57	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
1895	Sistersville Center	4.8%	88.8	B	WV	SISTERSVILLE	68	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
1896	Adel Acres	4.8%	88.7	C	IA	Adel	50	GST SNF LLC
1897	HILLSIDE MANOR	4.8%	88.7	B	WI	BEAVER DAM	115	SANFORD
1898	Highland Palms Healthcare Center	4.8%	88.7	B	CA	Highland	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
1899	Community Care Center of Hondo	4.8%	88.7	D	TX	Hondo	0	—
1900	OC Milford Gardens LLC	4.8%	88.7	F	MA	MILFORD	135	AMNH LLC

Showing 1,851–1,900 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.