Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,551–1,600

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1551	BRYN MAWR VILLAGE	1.7%	89.9	D	PA	BRYN MAWR	120	—
1552	ST JOSEPH VILLAGE OF CHICAGO	1.7%	89.9	B	IL	CHICAGO	54	—
1553	Deerfield Episcopal Retirement	1.7%	89.9	A	NC	Asheville	62	—
1554	CAMDENTON WINDSOR ESTATES	1.7%	89.8	C	MO	CAMDENTON	82	—
1555	WOODRUFF COUNTY HEALTH CENTER	1.7%	89.8	A	AR	MCCRORY	120	—
1556	WAR MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	1.7%	89.8	A	WV	BERKELEY SPRINGS	16	—
1557	Finger Lakes Health	1.7%	89.8	A	NY	Geneva	345	—
1558	THE LENNWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.7%	89.8	D	TX	DALLAS	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1559	Rockwell Community Nursing Home	1.7%	89.8	A	IA	Rockwell	40	—
1560	Nazareth Home	1.7%	89.8	A	KY	Louisville	118	—
1561	WOODLAND POND AT NEW PALTZ	1.7%	89.8	A	NY	NEW PALTZ	40	—
1562	BETH ISRAEL AT SHALOM PARK	1.7%	89.8	A	CO	AURORA	135	—
1563	Countryside Health Care of Milford	1.7%	89.8	A	MA	MILFORD	109	—
1564	Riceville Family Care and Therapy Center	1.7%	89.8	A	IA	Riceville	34	CONTINUUM HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
1565	Mackinac Straits Long Term Care Unit	1.7%	89.8	A	MI	St. Ignace	48	—
1566	AMSTERDAM NURSING HOME CORP (1992)	1.7%	89.8	A	NY	NEW YORK	409	—
1567	HOMESTEAD VILLAGE, INC	1.7%	89.8	A	PA	LANCASTER	60	—
1568	Ecumen Lakeshore	1.7%	89.8	A	MN	DULUTH	60	ECUMEN
1569	MEADOWOOD A HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	89.8	A	CA	STOCKTON	100	ESKATON PROPERTIES INCORPORATED
1570	AVANTE VILLA AT JACKSONVILLE BEACH INC	1.7%	89.7	B	FL	JACKSONVILLE BEACH	165	AG HOLDINGS INC
1571	BEAUMONT AT BRYN MAWR	1.7%	89.7	A	PA	BRYN MAWR	44	BENCHMARK THERAPIES INC
1572	Good Shepherd Health Center	1.7%	89.7	C	IA	Mason City	180	—
1573	Heath Village	1.7%	89.7	A	NJ	HACKETTSTOWN	108	—
1574	ROCKWOOD SOUTH HILL	1.7%	89.7	A	WA	SPOKANE	45	INPATIENT CONSULTANTS OF CALIFORNIA INC
1575	Crown Pointe Estates Care Center	1.7%	89.7	B	IA	Sioux Center	99	SIOUX CENTER HEALTH
1576	NEW JERSEY VETERANS MEMORIAL VINELAND	1.7%	89.7	A	NJ	VINELAND	300	—
1577	E W THOMPSON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	89.7	A	MO	SEDALIA	66	—
1578	GREENE COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.7%	89.7	A	AL	EUTAW	72	—
1579	GOODWIN HOUSE BAILEY'S CROSSROADS	1.7%	89.7	A	VA	FALLS CHURCH	73	—
1580	CHEYENNE MEDICAL LODGE	1.7%	89.7	C	TX	MESQUITE	0	JEC GS TRUST
1581	UVALDE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.7%	89.7	C	TX	UVALDE	0	—
1582	MADISON CO NH	1.7%	89.7	A	MS	CANTON	95	—
1583	ELMHAVEN EAST	1.7%	89.7	C	KS	PARSONS	45	—
1584	HOEGER HOUSE	1.7%	89.7	D	KS	OLATHE	34	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
1585	MARY WADE HOME, THE INCORPORATED	1.6%	89.7	B	CT	NEW HAVEN	94	—
1586	RICHARDTON HEALTH CENTER INC	1.6%	89.7	A	ND	RICHARDTON	29	—
1587	PARSONS PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	1.6%	89.7	B	KS	PARSONS	43	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
1588	WINDSOR CARE CENTER OF SACRAMENTO	1.6%	89.7	B	CA	SACRAMENTO	128	9560 PICO LLC
1589	LANE NURSING & VENTILATOR CARE	1.6%	89.7	D	OK	INOLA	65	—
1590	UNITED METHODIST COMMUNITIES AT THE SHORES	1.6%	89.6	A	NJ	OCEAN CITY	60	—
1591	Accura HealthCare of Pierce	1.6%	89.6	C	NE	Pierce	75	ARBORETA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTERS LLC
1592	AVERA BORMANN MANOR	1.6%	89.6	D	SD	PARKSTON	50	—
1593	LAKEPOINT WICHITA, LLC	1.6%	89.6	A	KS	WICHITA	110	—
1594	MERCY HARVARD HOSPITAL CARE CENTER	1.6%	89.6	A	IL	HARVARD	34	MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION
1595	PARKER JEWISH INSTITUTE FOR HEALTH CARE & REHAB	1.6%	89.6	C	NY	NEW HYDE PARK	527	—
1596	PRESTONWOOD REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER INC	1.6%	89.6	B	TX	PLANO	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1597	JEFFERSON HOUSE	1.6%	89.6	A	CT	NEWINGTON	104	—
1598	Presbyterian Homes Of Bloomington	1.6%	89.6	A	MN	BLOOMINGTON	98	—
1599	Lompoc Valley Medical Center Comprehensive Care Ce	1.6%	89.6	B	CA	Lompoc	110	—
1600	LA SALLE COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.6%	89.6	A	IL	OTTAWA	79	—

Showing 1,551–1,600 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.