3440 S JEFFERSON STREET, FALLS CHURCH, VA 22041 · CCN 495171
Composite
11.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
73
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 11.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
VA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
5.18
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.35
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.14
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.19
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
67.6
5.18
1.35
0.64
3.19
5.14
0.0%
2025Q3
92
67.0
5.08
1.25
0.63
3.19
5.08
0.0%
2025Q2
91
67.8
4.98
1.37
0.47
3.14
4.97
0.0%
2025Q1
90
67.2
5.00
1.40
0.44
3.16
4.93
0.0%
2024Q4
92
68.5
4.94
1.45
0.40
3.09
4.92
0.0%
2024Q3
92
68.4
4.89
1.41
0.40
3.08
4.84
0.0%
2024Q2
91
67.5
4.99
1.33
0.46
3.20
4.90
0.0%
2024Q1
91
68.5
4.97
1.21
0.57
3.19
4.97
0.0%
2023Q4
92
68.9
5.07
1.26
0.56
3.24
5.02
0.0%
2023Q3
92
67.0
5.08
1.25
0.57
3.26
4.98
0.0%
2023Q2
91
64.3
5.43
1.24
0.70
3.49
5.33
0.0%
2023Q1
90
62.9
5.24
1.31
0.67
3.26
5.09
0.0%
2022Q4
92
64.6
5.05
1.26
0.64
3.14
4.93
0.0%
2022Q3
92
62.4
5.18
1.31
0.63
3.23
5.12
3.8%
2022Q2
91
61.5
5.30
1.30
0.65
3.34
5.17
1.9%
2022Q1
90
65.6
4.71
1.22
0.48
3.01
4.77
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 13E × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-08-21
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-21
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-21
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-21
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-21
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2024-10-04
2024-08-21
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-21
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-10-04
2024-08-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-10-04
2023-04-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-05-26
2021-11-04
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2021-12-17
2021-11-04
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2021-12-17
2021-11-04
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2021-12-17
2021-11-04
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-12-17
2021-11-04
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2021-12-17
2021-11-04
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2021-12-17
2021-11-04
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2021-12-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
54
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LIEBREICH, ROBERT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2019-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERNATEAU, SHERRETTA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-09-19
current
pecos_ownership
CALLOWAY, DONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CALLOWAY, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARWILE, JUSTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHOI, PHOEBE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2020-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
CLARK, CYRILLENE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLARKE, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORBES, DEBORAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANISIAN, HOLLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-09-08
current
pecos_ownership
HANSEN, JANET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HIX, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HIX, MARY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUDSON, MELINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUDSON, MELINDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KUMAR, CHANDRA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
RANDOLPH, NANCY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REGNELL, TOM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SIEGEL, ANDREW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, TIMOTHY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-08-30
current
pecos_ownership
WEST, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LIEBREICH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2019-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW SIEGEL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-05-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY TAMBASCO
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BEN MARCHANTONIO
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANDRA KUMAR
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANDRA KUMAR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYRILLENE CLARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID CLARKE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH FORBES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD CALLOWAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD CALLOWAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARRETT ERDLE
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY HANISIAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-09-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANET HANSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN WEAVER
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUSTIN CARWILE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA GIESLER
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MELLOTT
OTHER
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY HIX
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY HIX
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELINDA HUDSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELINDA HUDSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY RANDOLPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NINA JANOPAUL
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHOEBE CHOI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-12-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERRETTA BERNATEAU
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-09-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS WEST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SMITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-08-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM REGNELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TUCKER ESKEW
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VIPIN SAHIJWANI
OTHER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 51059
acs median gross
0
$1,968
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
0
$1,953
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
1
$1,954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
1
$2,015
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
2
$2,273
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
2
$2,246
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
3
$2,735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
3
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
4
$3,260
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
fmr
4
$3,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51059
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
acs median gross
$2,276
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51059
acs recent mover gross
$2,341
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22041
acs median gross
0
$1,705
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22041
acs median gross
1
$1,716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22041
acs median gross
2
$2,137
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22041
acs median gross
3
$2,242
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22041
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22041
acs median gross
5
$3,235
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22041
acs median gross
$1,950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 22041
acs recent mover gross
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 22041
payment standard 110
0
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 90
0
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
safmr
0
$1,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 110
1
$2,156
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 90
1
$1,764
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
safmr
1
$1,960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 110
2
$2,409
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 90
2
$1,971
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
safmr
2
$2,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 110
3
$3,036
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 90
3
$2,484
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
safmr
3
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 110
4
$3,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
payment standard 90
4
$2,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 22041
safmr
4
$3,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.