Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,051–1,100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1051	CHOCTAW RESIDENTIAL CENTER	2.6%	93.2	A	MS	CHOCTAW	120	—
1052	Davenport Lutheran Home	2.6%	93.1	B	IA	Davenport	98	—
1053	MCAULEY RESIDENCE	2.6%	93.1	A	NY	KENMORE	160	—
1054	Jeanne Jugan Residence	2.6%	93.1	A	RI	Pawtucket	49	—
1055	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT MARIE ESTHER	2.6%	93.1	A	MA	MARLBOROUGH	78	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
1056	WILLOWBROOKE COURT SKILLED CARE CENTER - EDGEWATER	2.6%	93.1	A	FL	BOCA RATON	60	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1057	Concordia at Arbutus Park	2.6%	93.1	D	PA	JOHNSTOWN	141	—
1058	WASHINGTON COUNTY NURSING HOME	2.6%	93.1	A	AL	CHATOM	88	—
1059	COVENANT WOODS NURSING HOME	2.6%	93.1	A	VA	MECHANICSVILLE	62	—
1060	MOSSER NURSING HOME	2.6%	93.1	B	PA	TREXLERTOWN	60	PLEXUS GROUP INC
1061	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF BREMEN	2.6%	93.1	D	IN	BREMEN	73	ASBR HOLDINGS LLC
1062	MVHS Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	2.6%	93.1	B	NY	UTICA	202	MOHAWK VALLEY HEALTH SYSTEM
1063	PRAIRIE MANOR NURSING HOME	2.6%	93.0	A	LA	PINE PRAIRIE	100	—
1064	LYTLE NURSING HOME	2.6%	93.0	C	TX	LYTLE	0	—
1065	THE HEALTH CENTER AT CONCORDIA	2.6%	93.0	B	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	30	—
1066	Prairie View Home	2.6%	93.0	A	IA	Sanborn	55	ECSI INC
1067	HORIZONS CARE CENTER	2.6%	93.0	C	CO	ECKERT	45	VOLUNTEERS OF AMERICA NATIONAL SERVICES
1068	SAN JUAN NURSING HOME INC	2.6%	93.0	A	TX	SAN JUAN	114	—
1069	MARTHA COKER GREEN HOUSE HOME	2.5%	93.0	A	MS	YAZOO CITY	60	—
1070	OHIO LIVING BRECKENRIDGE VILLAGE	2.5%	93.0	B	OH	WILLOUGHBY	72	—
1071	MARION AND BERNARD L SAMSON NURSING CENTER	2.5%	93.0	A	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	180	—
1072	HOLY TRINITY EASTERN ORTHODOX N & R CENTER	2.5%	93.0	A	MA	WORCESTER	113	—
1073	CHRISTIAN CARE CENTER OF MEDINA	2.5%	93.0	F	TN	MEDINA	66	—
1074	AVENUES AT QUAD CITIES	2.5%	93.0	B	IL	SILVIS	63	—
1075	John J Kane Regional Center-Ro	2.5%	93.0	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	240	—
1076	BIRMINGHAM GREEN	2.5%	93.0	A	VA	MANASSAS	180	—
1077	Harbor Haven Health & Rehabilitation	2.5%	93.0	A	WI	Fond du Lac	85	—
1078	Rocky Mountain Care - Evanston	2.5%	93.0	C	WY	EVANSTON	60	—
1079	Iowa Jewish Senior Life Center	2.5%	93.0	B	IA	Des Moines	46	—
1080	TRINITY COMMUNITY AT FAIRBORN	2.5%	93.0	A	OH	FAIRBORN	94	—
1081	FAYETTE MEDICAL CENTER LONG TERM CARE UNIT	2.5%	93.0	A	AL	FAYETTE	122	—
1082	INGLESIDE AT ROCK CREEK	2.5%	93.0	B	DC	WASHINGTON	34	—
1083	ORCHARD VIEW POST-ACUTE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	93.0	F	TN	KINGSPORT	180	—
1084	McGregor Wellness & Rehabilitation	2.5%	92.9	F	TX	Mc Gregor	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
1085	LUTHER CREST NURSING FACILITY	2.5%	92.9	A	PA	ALLENTOWN	60	DIAKON
1086	Hi'olani Care Center at Kahala Nui	2.5%	92.9	A	HI	Honolulu	20	—
1087	Maryfield Nursing Home	2.5%	92.9	A	NC	High Point	115	—
1088	HOPE CARE CENTER	2.5%	92.9	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	16	—
1089	HAVENWOOD-HERITAGE HEIGHTS	2.5%	92.9	A	NH	CONCORD	70	—
1090	Lutheran Retirement Home	2.5%	92.9	A	IA	Northwood	42	—
1091	WILLIAM HOOD DUNWOODY CARE CTR	2.5%	92.9	A	PA	NEWTOWN SQUARE	81	—
1092	Garden County Hospital & Nursing Home	2.5%	92.9	A	NE	Oshkosh	24	—
1093	NORTHERN REGIONAL HOSPITAL	2.5%	92.9	A	NC	MOUNT AIRY	33	—
1094	FAIR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	92.9	C	WI	MAUSTON	50	—
1095	Hcc At White Horse Village	2.5%	92.9	A	PA	NEWTOWN SQUARE	55	—
1096	LEGEND OAKS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION - ENNIS	2.5%	92.9	C	TX	ENNIS	0	EASTLAND MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1097	PERSHING GENERAL HOSPITAL SNF	2.5%	92.9	C	NV	LOVELOCK	25	—
1098	MOUNTAINSIDE RESIDENTIAL CARE CENTER	2.5%	92.9	A	NY	MARGARETVILLE	82	—
1099	Highlands Living Center	2.5%	92.8	B	NY	Pittsford	122	—
1100	BRETHREN CARE VILLAGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.5%	92.8	A	OH	ASHLAND	79	—

Showing 1,051–1,100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.