Reads as: riskier than 56.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
53% fined
ROGERS MICHAEL
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
52% fined
CAIN JAMES
21 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NE median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.20
2.88
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.67
0.42
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.79
2.75
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.36
2.96
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
72.3
3.20
0.67
0.55
1.98
2.79
8.6%
2025Q3
92
67.6
2.91
0.82
0.34
1.74
2.31
0.0%
2025Q2
91
62.3
2.93
0.74
0.31
1.88
2.62
0.4%
2025Q1
90
57.9
3.07
0.83
0.36
1.88
2.83
0.0%
2024Q4
92
58.7
2.85
0.80
0.34
1.72
2.47
0.0%
2024Q3
92
57.9
2.52
0.77
0.32
1.43
2.29
2.8%
2024Q2
91
56.6
2.52
0.36
0.59
1.56
2.30
5.2%
2024Q1
91
55.6
2.84
0.37
0.65
1.81
2.71
10.3%
2023Q4
92
50.3
3.01
0.42
0.59
2.00
2.65
23.2%
2023Q3
92
51.7
2.67
0.53
0.54
1.60
2.29
16.0%
2023Q2
91
47.0
2.79
0.65
0.63
1.52
2.68
12.2%
2023Q1
90
42.9
2.76
0.58
0.68
1.50
2.67
14.8%
2022Q4
92
45.5
2.37
0.54
0.66
1.17
2.18
1.8%
2022Q3
92
49.2
2.33
0.46
0.75
1.12
2.19
0.0%
2022Q2
91
58.0
2.13
0.35
0.73
1.05
2.09
0.0%
2022Q1
90
62.9
2.17
0.47
0.79
0.91
2.09
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 13E × 2F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-02-24
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-05
2025-02-24
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-03-05
2025-02-24
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
F
2025-03-05
2024-11-21
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-12-31
2024-11-21
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-12-31
2024-11-21
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-12-31
2023-09-26
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-11-03
2023-06-06
Health · complaint
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-06
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-06
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-06
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-06
Health · complaint
F0729
Verify that a nurse aide has been trained; and if they haven't worked as a nurse aide for 2 years, receive retraining.
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-06
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-07-14
2022-08-16
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2022-08-30
2022-08-16
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-08-30
2022-08-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2022-08-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
40
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SANFORD
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BASHIR RAFIQ, NAUREEN
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAIN, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
DYKHOUSE, DANA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
ENGBRECHT, WESLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
FLUIT, JOEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GASSEN, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
GULSVIG, NEIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
HERSETH SANDLIN, STEPHANIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
LUNDEEN, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
MIDDLETON, AIMEE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
MOLBERT, LAURIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
NORBY, NICKLOS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORTH, ANDREW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
OLSON, NICHOLAS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-06-13
current
pecos_ownership
SCHEMA, NATHAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHULKIN, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
TEIKEN, BRENT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
VENTLING-HERRMANN, MARNIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-30
current
pecos_ownership
AIMEE MIDDLETON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW NORTH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENT TEIKEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANA DYKHOUSE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID SHULKIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES CAIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL FLUIT
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURIS MOLBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK LUNDEEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARNIE VENTLING-HERRMANN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL ROGERS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-06-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN SCHEMA
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAUREEN BASHIR RAFIQ
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NEIL GULSVIG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICHOLAS OLSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-04-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICKLOS NORBY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE HERSETH-SANDLIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WESLEY ENGBRECHT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM GASSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-05-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,247,625
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$1,057,094
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$1,124,844
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$1,142,492
—
—
—
$407
1
—
2020-12-31
$1,340,472
—
—
—
$902
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 31055
acs median gross
0
$954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31055
fmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31055
acs median gross
1
$1,041
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31055
fmr
1
$1,148
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31055
acs median gross
2
$1,249
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31055
fmr
2
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31055
acs median gross
3
$1,532
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31055
fmr
3
$1,813
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31055
acs median gross
4
$1,714
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31055
fmr
4
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 31055
acs median gross
5
$1,461
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31055
acs median gross
$1,201
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 31055
acs recent mover gross
$1,337
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68137
acs median gross
0
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68137
acs median gross
1
$1,145
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68137
acs median gross
2
$1,482
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68137
acs median gross
3
$1,768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68137
acs median gross
4
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68137
acs median gross
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 68137
acs recent mover gross
$1,382
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 68137
payment standard 110
0
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 90
0
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
safmr
0
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 110
1
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 90
1
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
safmr
1
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 110
2
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 90
2
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
safmr
2
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 110
3
$2,321
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 90
3
$1,899
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
safmr
3
$2,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 110
4
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
payment standard 90
4
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 68137
safmr
4
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.