Reads as: riskier than 53.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MEZA MICHAEL
8 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
ID median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.56
3.34
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.41
0.51
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.21
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.69
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
79.0
3.56
0.41
1.08
2.06
3.21
7.4%
2025Q3
92
81.2
3.69
0.42
1.09
2.17
3.29
3.9%
2025Q2
91
75.6
3.55
0.52
0.97
2.06
3.15
1.6%
2025Q1
90
74.4
3.04
0.30
0.95
1.79
2.53
0.0%
2024Q4
92
64.8
3.18
0.31
0.94
1.92
2.77
0.0%
2024Q3
92
65.5
3.00
0.30
0.87
1.83
2.48
0.0%
2024Q2
91
63.7
3.19
0.26
0.89
2.04
2.81
0.0%
2024Q1
91
62.9
3.30
0.14
1.08
2.07
2.90
0.0%
2023Q4
92
62.2
3.05
0.23
0.87
1.96
2.80
0.0%
2023Q3
92
63.2
2.96
0.24
0.98
1.74
2.68
0.0%
2023Q2
91
60.4
3.10
0.20
1.12
1.78
2.74
0.0%
2023Q1
90
60.0
3.05
0.26
1.13
1.65
2.62
0.0%
2022Q4
92
56.1
3.14
0.27
1.04
1.84
2.87
0.0%
2022Q3
92
50.0
3.42
0.24
1.14
2.03
2.99
0.2%
2022Q2
91
53.4
3.29
0.21
1.15
1.93
2.86
0.0%
2022Q1
90
57.0
3.27
0.27
1.09
1.91
2.88
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
D × 11F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-14
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2025-09-08
2025-08-14
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-09-08
2025-08-14
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-09-08
2025-08-14
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-09-08
2025-08-14
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-09-08
2024-07-05
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2024-07-22
2023-03-24
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-04-27
2023-03-24
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-04-27
2023-03-24
Health
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2023-04-27
2023-03-24
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2023-04-27
2023-03-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-04-27
2023-03-24
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
D
2023-04-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
42
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
POST FALLS SNF RE INV LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
POST FALLS SNF RE INV LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BUTNER, NANCY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-09-16
current
pecos_ownership
CROSS, CINDY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-06-12
current
pecos_ownership
DEVELOPERS INVESTMENT COMPANY II, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, TODD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-13
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY, TERRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
LAY, LISA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-02-09
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-12
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
MARTIN, RASALIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
MEZA, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEZA, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
PALUMBO, BENJAMIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
PALUMBO, BENJAMIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
POST FALLS MEDICAL INVESTORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
POST FALLS MEDICAL INVESTORS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-09-15
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, AUBREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-13
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2005-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
SWANKER, RICHARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THURMOND, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-06-12
current
pecos_ownership
ZIEGLER, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-13
current
pecos_ownership
POST FALLS SNF RE INV LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
POST FALLS SNF RE INV LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
POST FALLS SNF RE INV LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORREST PRESTON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
2005-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUBREY PRESTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN PALUMBO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN PALUMBO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY CROSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-06-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PRESTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ZIEGLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN THURMOND
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-06-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA LAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MEZA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MEZA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY BUTNER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-09-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RASALIE MARTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SWANKER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY HENRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLETCHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,150,361
$918,574
—
—
$783,135
7
propco
2023-12-31
$2,142,656
$1,072,254
—
—
$689,791
7
propco
2022-12-31
$2,146,922
$1,123,340
—
—
$639,023
7
propco
2021-12-31
$2,445,045
$1,168,293
—
—
$828,131
7
propco
2020-12-31
$2,518,377
$1,184,707
—
—
$875,084
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 16055
acs median gross
0
$1,308
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
0
$1,103
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
1
$1,166
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
1
$1,302
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
2
$1,296
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
2
$1,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
3
$1,828
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
3
$2,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
4
$2,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
fmr
4
$2,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16055
acs median gross
5
$1,959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
acs median gross
$1,492
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16055
acs recent mover gross
$1,772
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83854
acs median gross
0
$1,549
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83854
acs median gross
1
$1,311
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83854
acs median gross
2
$1,251
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83854
acs median gross
3
$1,683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83854
acs median gross
4
$2,594
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83854
acs median gross
$1,495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83854
acs recent mover gross
$1,757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 83854
payment standard 110
0
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 90
0
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
safmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 110
1
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 90
1
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
safmr
1
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 110
2
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 90
2
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
safmr
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 110
3
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 90
3
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
safmr
3
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 110
4
$2,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
payment standard 90
4
$2,313
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83854
safmr
4
$2,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.